Apologies for just popping up and additional anticipated apologies in case of being redundant: I am tidying up my S4ME drafts folder – this is a message from the past.
In addition to all the work already published correcting the PACE trials' claimed figures regarding improvements by GET and CBT, I thought it might be worthwhile to analyze how "pacing" was conceived in the trial and how the APT (Adaptive Pacing Therapy) part was designed.
First, if the participants in the APT group were the only ones who kept an activity/ pacing diary, they also would have been the only ones who had a realistic protocol of the course of their activity levels – and the only ones who filled in the questionnaires accordingly.
Then, had participants of the APT arm already been practicing their own concept of pacing before the trial?
In either case, pacing as I understand it, and as other forum members have pointed out, does not promise to increase physical functioning and/or to reduce fatigue significantly in the long run. It's only thought to reduce the frequency and severity of additional PEM or crashes, thus stabilizing as much as possible, i.e. depending on the type of course of the illness, preventing or reducing the risk of or slowing down a long term
decline. (*)
However, the trial's APT concept seems to have been contradictory. Although it is said in the
Lancet paper (2011) that APT was conceived as simply adapting to reduced capabilities, the underlying hypothesis being the "energy envelope theory" (**), it is also said that participants were encouraged to increase their activities "If the participant felt able". Perhaps it actually was directed to mainly organize things better, with the premise that this will easily increase the
efficacy of activities, leading to perceiving activities as doable and satisfactory, thus leading to less fatigue, followed by finally increased activiy levels?
The Lancet paper:
"This adaptation was achieved by helping the participant to plan and pace activity to reduce or avoid fatigue, achieve prioritised activities and provide the best conditions for natural recovery."
Haven't found the APT manuals for therapists and patients, but stumbled over those "PACING" rhymes by G.T. Buchan in the
participants' newsletter (Issue 2, March 2007):
Work, rest, play balance
To the office reluctantly I trudge
Shifting tasks, shorter lists
Reduces all the drudge
Once you get the system straight
PACING can be fun
And, it is no surprise,
You get the job done!
https://www.qmul.ac.uk/wolfson/media/wolfson/current-projects/participantsnewsletter2.pdf (p.2)
What if you still aren't able to work properly or work at all even when you already have shifted tasks and shortened lists? Or, if you already adjusted your scope of work and homework, yet you get both done only at the expense of your entire leisure and social activities?
It might have been discouraging not being able to accomplish the proposed goals?
Taken together, participants in the APT group (a) initially might have had not expected to get better, (b) might have been become discouraged during the course of the trial by being told they could get better if they only were better organized, and (c) in addition might have been the only ones who recorded their daily activities properly, thus had a realistic account they might have recalled when filling in the subjective outcomes questionnaires.
As others have pointed out elsewhere, the trial was flawed in a manner that makes it impossible to use the presented figures in any way. Thus, if my points make any sense at all, they still won't add any substantial critique to the alleged results regarding GET.
My point is that PACE's results regarding pacing are invalid in many regards, too. However, if you singled them out and they
were valid, APT would, measured against the underlying hypothesis, actually be very effective: Not only did most APT group participants not deteriorate, but an impressive figue of 42%, according to the trial's definition, even "improved". Surprised that there is no difference to the "SMC alone" group? Then, how to make sure that the trial participants in the "SMC alone" arm didn't practice some form of pacing, too?
I think it could be worthwhile to have some capable researchers looking at the data of the activity diaries. Perhaps these could be used to conceive a reasonable future study that actually investigated pacing.
Footnotes:
(*) At the same time, the concept of pacing as I understand it allows to acknowledge that remission might occur, but it is not known yet why a certain percentage of ME sufferers improves significantly or gets completely well again (not sure whether the latter is true/ whether there are reliable figures, though?)
(**) "This theory regards chronic fatigue syndrome as an organic disease process that is not reversible by changes in behaviour and which results in a reduced and finite amount (envelope) of available energy." https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(11)60096-2/fulltext
(minor edits for spelling and grammar)