Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

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DokaGirl said:
I don't know if this has been posted before. Stat News has a COVID-19 Tracker:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/26/covid-19-tracker/
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The dashboard looks interesting but I'm confused about the date Stat News lists for the first USA case - says it was 25 days ago:
US Data - Stat News.png

The first case in Washington state was in January. Even Oregon had its first case before March (late Feb).

I just did a search and found this NEJM article which says:
As of January 30, 2020, a total of 9976 cases had been reported in at least 21 countries, including the first confirmed case of 2019-nCoV infection in the United States, reported on January 20, 2020.
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Maybe some tracking blocker in my browser is messing up the data display?

Maybe the first cases are not available in the database that Stat News is drawing from?
 
Thank you for the info and the NEJM article.

Sorry, I don't know anything more about this tracker.

Every avenue of our lives, and infrastructure is affected by this monster virus; that seems to go for data as well.

Thanks for letting me know about that other post.

:)
 
FMMM1 said:
I think what Jonathan is highlighting is that the authorities have, in effect, eradicated the virus in Wuhan. I.e. even though the % people infected was possibly 0.2% of the population. The virus would die out naturally when the approx 70% of the population were infected (herd immunity). However, the Chinese government tested and isolated those infected/infectious, and traced their contacts (isolated where necessary) --- breaking transmission.

So it's a model of how to deal with the virus until you have a vaccine/at least not overwhelming your hospitals.
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And you believe their numbers? The same country that covered up the existence of the virus from it's people for a month an a half. The same country that massively underreported infection numbers early on?

Western residents of China tell a very different story right now...
 
Snow Leopard said:
And you believe their numbers? The same country that covered up the existence of the virus from it's people for a month an a half. The same country that massively underreported infection numbers early on?

Western residents of China tell a very different story right now...
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A week ago or so the Chinese published a video which showed the "jubilation" of inhibitants to have (mainly) overcome the virus and that everything will get back to normal.

To me this looked very propaganda like. It is thinkable that they don´t want tot deal with an eradication and now, instead, decided that they will have managed the things within two months or so. China is not a free country with trustful informations, albeit the informations may have been so for two months or so.

The only country I would be completely confident of to eradicate the virus is Singapore. In Japan the situation is not clear, I think, as they did only few testing, though the very high hygiene in shops, tube asf. might slow down the spread significantly. I think they still don´t care about this specific virus. Korea might be the most interesting country to look at, massive testing, rigid tracing, often masks, but no lockdown, people are going into restaurants.
 
Sasha said:
Is anyone with influence at the top levels of medicine/politics pushing them for eradication? Or at least 'the hammer and the dance'?
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As I understand it the WHO has recommended an eradication strategy throughout, although Tedros said some slightly odd things at the beginning. Everyone else in the world outside UK and US think our approach is nuts.
 
I'm meant to be taking a break but I just had to post that I just had a call from a Labour Party supporter to check on how we are doing, which was very good but... I told them straight that I had great anxiety that our border was still not closed to returning New Zealanders and I will not be happy until it is closed!

We still have the virus coming into the country. I just can't understand how they keep letting it in. They keep opening the door to it.

The answer to me is simple. Lock the door. Then start the process of eradicating within so we can get the country up and running again.

We had our first death yesterday here in NZ. The family are grieving greatly. I was hoping we would be spared. It is passed time to close the border.

I'm going to email as many MPs as I can to get this border closed.

Edit to add: Instead of "stay home, save lives" it should have been "close the border, save lives".
 
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Jonathan Edwards said:
As I understand it the WHO has recommended an eradication strategy throughout, although Tedros said some slightly odd things at the beginning. Everyone else in the world outside UK and US think our approach is nuts.
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Thanks - I'm surprised to hear that that's the WHO's position, quite honestly, because in all the coverage (at least since the virus escaped China) I don't think I've ever heard the word 'eradication'. I wonder if I've just not been listening properly or if this is a defect in the BBC's coverage in particular (where I've been getting most of my news).

But if it's the WHO's position, then my question becomes, 'Is anyone in the UK with influence at the top levels of medicine/politics pushing the govt for eradication? Or at least for "the hammer and the dance"?'

At the moment, we seem to be using a rubber hammer, with all sorts of non-essential work going on.
 
Adrian said:
Here is what looks like it might be a good article on why we should wear masks. (Not read it)
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It says:

Medium said:
The latest biological findings on SARS-Cov-2 viral entry into human tissue and sneeze/cough-droplet ballistics suggest that the major transmission mechanism is not via the fine aerosols but large droplets, and thus, warrant the wearing of surgical masks by everyone.
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and

Medium said:
In contrary, in view of the stated goal to “flatten the curve”, any additional, however partial reduction of transmission would be welcome — even that afforded by the simple surgical masks or home-made (DIY) masks (which would not exacerbate the supply problem).
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Sly Saint said:
From SMC:


https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/...t-mental-health-during-the-covid-19-outbreak/

"Useful evidence-based resources for clinicians coordinating psychosocial responses to COVID"
https://www.traumagroup.org/

I can think of better things they could be doing than reading this.
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This is actually worth a look. Its a group of UK psychiatrists trying to claim as much of the pandemic space as possible. Despite their expertise being in mental illness, here, many of them imply they have a special understanding the everyday psychological challenges and stresses that are faced by ordinary people being stuck at home. They're apparently psychologists now too. There's surprisingly little coverage of what should really concern psychiatrists - that is, the severely mentally ill, getting them support, and ensuring they stay on their medication and don't self-harm.
 
Snow Leopard said:
And you believe their numbers? The same country that covered up the existence of the virus from it's people for a month an a half. The same country that massively underreported infection numbers early on?

Western residents of China tell a very different story right now...
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I know western residents of China (friends of my partners, who I recently got back in contact with through social media), who have been in China throughout this outbreak, who don’t tell a different story. They say China made mistakes at the beginning but they put that on their shoulders and faced it.

Infact if anything, those friends of my partner are in shock at the way the UK and other western countries have been reacting to the crisis, and how underprepared other countries are (eg Latin America). Not only the governments but the selfishness of the people and the thinking if they don’t get it, they are ok, in other countries. And the way people don’t have protection (masks etc).

Whereas in China, they knew what they had to do to keep others safe, and in many parts, life is starting to resume.
 
Woolie said:
There's surprisingly little coverage of what should really concern psychiatrists - that is, the severely mentally ill, getting them support, and ensuring they stay on their medication and don't self-harm.
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That has been the major flaw in the whole campaign for getting parity of treatment for mental health in the UK. ie the whole IAPT thing and yet precious little improvement in treatment for those with serious mental health issues.

Now they are saying that once the corona epidemic has passed there will be yet another epidemic of mental health issues.
But is a lot of it of their own making?
see:
https://www.s4me.info/threads/trial-by-error-what-now.14164/#post-246857
 
Sasha said:
I don't think I've ever heard the word 'eradication'.
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I agree but I think this may just reflect
1. It is obvious that that is the goal.
2. It may sound like hype or overoptimism to talk of eradication. I am not sure we can achieve it. I am simply saying that trying to achieve it is the only sensible approach - and will give the best result anyway if it is not fully achieved.
3. The BBC has been fed a story by the UK science advisors.

I have no idea whether or not anyone sensible is making noises in political circles. Unfortunately, the old adage that empty vessels make most noise has always applied to science as much as anything else. Not very many scientists in prominent positions have much idea what they are talking about.
 
Snow Leopard said:
The typical mask that only covers the mouth is quite poor at reducing the risk of catching an infection, since your eyes, ears etc are still exposed.

Some people say, but does it hurt to wear one? The answer is, yes it can hurt if those who need masks to stop the spread to others can't get them due to shortages.
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Ian Lipkin, in his recent interview (link?), said they were looking at whether it would be possible to re-use masks e.g. by washing them (56 degrees centigrade?). I was thinking that when we get manufacturing scaled up then it may be possible to use masks and gloves --- until we have a vaccine! In the meantime I have a balaclava, with a piece of vacuum bag as a filter, which I use - @Keela Too -- currently 3 days since my last visit to the shops and I think I can stretch it out a few more days --- would a week be possible?
 
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