1. Guest, the 'News in Brief' for the week beginning 16th March 2020 can be found here.
    Dismiss Notice
  2. Welcome! To read the Core Purpose and Values of our forum, click here.
    Dismiss Notice

Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

Discussion in 'Epidemics (including Covid-19)' started by Patient4Life, Jan 20, 2020.

  1. Patient4Life

    Patient4Life Senior Member (Voting Rights)

    Messages:
    213
    Likes Received:
    732
    China Confirms New Coronavirus Spreads From Humans to Humans (Jan 20, 2020) By Javier C. Hernández and Austin Ramzy - The New York Times

    A top Chinese government-appointed expert says a mysterious respiratory illness that has killed at least three people can be transmitted by humans, heightening concern about the outbreak.








     
    MSEsperanza, Gigi300, merylg and 8 others like this.
  2. Leila

    Leila Senior Member (Voting Rights)

    Messages:
    119
    Likes Received:
    676
    Sounds like the movie "Contagion" :/
     
    Gigi300, Patient4Life and hinterland like this.
  3. Snow Leopard

    Snow Leopard Senior Member (Voting Rights)

    Messages:
    1,593
    Likes Received:
    9,463
    Location:
    Australia
    MeSci, Woolie, merylg and 9 others like this.
  4. Hip

    Hip Senior Member (Voting Rights)

    Messages:
    689
    Likes Received:
    2,623
    So far out of the 300 confirmed cases of this new coronavirus, 6 people have died. So presumably that's a 2% fatality rate. Ref: here.

    Thus if it does spread to the rest of the world's 7.8 billion population, I guess that's potentially 2% of the world dying, or 156 million deaths. That may beat the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, which caused an estimated 20 to 50 million deaths worldwide.

    Human to human transmission of this coronavirus is confirmed possible, and as coronavirus is an RNA virus rather than a DNA virus, it's subject to rapid mutation, so could quickly evolve into a form which is spread more easily.

    The WHO are going to decide tomorrow (Wednesday) whether to declare an international emergency.

     
  5. Cheshire

    Cheshire Moderator Staff Member

    Messages:
    3,228
    Likes Received:
    18,922
    it's the fatality rate of contaminated people. I guess if the epidemy were to spread and the mortality rate stayed stable, as not everybody would be contaminated, the death toll would be less severe.
     
  6. Hip

    Hip Senior Member (Voting Rights)

    Messages:
    689
    Likes Received:
    2,623
    Yes, it depends on what percentage of the population is infected with the virus. And that will depend on the evolution of the virus, and whether it evolves into a form which is more easily transmissible. If that does not happen, perhaps the outbreak will have only a limited impact.

    Apparently with the 1918 Spanish flu, 28% of the US became infected.
     
    MeSci, merylg, Yessica and 6 others like this.
  7. Mij

    Mij Senior Member (Voting Rights)

    Messages:
    2,345
    Likes Received:
    12,521
    They are taking passengers temperature while boarding or on planes for the lunar year.
     
    MeSci, merylg, Yessica and 3 others like this.
  8. Patient4Life

    Patient4Life Senior Member (Voting Rights)

    Messages:
    213
    Likes Received:
    732
  9. Sarah94

    Sarah94 Senior Member (Voting Rights)

    Messages:
    1,798
    Likes Received:
    5,463
    Location:
    UK
    How bad is this compared to the swine flu scare back in 2009(?) ?
     
    ladycatlover likes this.
  10. Milo

    Milo Senior Member (Voting Rights)

    Messages:
    916
    Likes Received:
    6,820
    British Columbia announced today they are taking the outbreak seriously by advising hospital staff, emergency services and airports.

    They said they now have a test for this virus:
    Just like like that. Not one person affected in the province or even in the country. But they have a diagnostic test.

    It sucks to have this illness. :( There are 78,000 British Columbians living with ME. No test, no meaningful health care.

    Edit to add: here is the link to the press release

    Edit #2: I understand this is an infectious disease that is deadly and spreads like wild fires. Seemingly governments understand that kind of emergency.
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2020
  11. large donner

    large donner Senior Member (Voting Rights)

    Messages:
    1,148
    Likes Received:
    9,029
    The people of China will need their government now more than ever I wonder if they will be taking precautions over limiting travel, mass inoculations, policy changes, limitations on liberties and extra personal data collection. Once they get this all under control the death toll will be in the tens.
     
  12. ScottTriGuy

    ScottTriGuy Senior Member (Voting Rights)

    Messages:
    609
    Likes Received:
    5,412
    Location:
    Toronto
    My thoughts exactly.
     
    Amw66, Milo and Patient4Life like this.
  13. Hell..hath..no..fury...

    Hell..hath..no..fury... Senior Member (Voting Rights)

    Messages:
    1,230
    Likes Received:
    10,508
    Super, hope they’re not doing it in north Vietnam too, my temperature is always crazy. I’m currently floating around in the sea not far from China. Had a hacking cough for last few weeks with temperature but I seem to have shaken it. Tons of people with hacking coughs here.
     
    MeSci, merylg, Yessica and 3 others like this.
  14. Hip

    Hip Senior Member (Voting Rights)

    Messages:
    689
    Likes Received:
    2,623
    That's amazingly fast work by the scientific community. This Wuhan coronavirus made its first appearance on 31 Dec 2019, and now within 3 weeks, we already have a PCR test for it (according to the WHO website).
     
  15. Patient4Life

    Patient4Life Senior Member (Voting Rights)

    Messages:
    213
    Likes Received:
    732
  16. Milo

    Milo Senior Member (Voting Rights)

    Messages:
    916
    Likes Received:
    6,820
    Gigi300, MeSci, merylg and 1 other person like this.
  17. Esther12

    Esther12 Senior Member (Voting Rights)

    Messages:
    3,447
    Likes Received:
    28,291
    This reminds me of playing the mobile game 'plague'. The key to successfully wiping out humanity was evolving to be really infectious before the Olympics spread you all over the world.

    That game has left me kind of rooting for the coronavirus.
     
  18. Patient4Life

    Patient4Life Senior Member (Voting Rights)

    Messages:
    213
    Likes Received:
    732
    New coronavirus not yet declared a global health concern; WHO will meet again Thursday

    The director-general of the WHO cited the need for more information before making a decision.

    (Underline mine.)



     
    merylg likes this.
  19. Sisyphus

    Sisyphus Senior Member (Voting Rights)

    Messages:
    312
    Likes Received:
    1,100
    I will rarely utter a complimentary word about a Communist government, but China is acing this one. It is said that there are no public gatherings in Wuhan and everyone visible outside is wearing a filtermask, which should be enough to catch most of the droplets from respiration/coughs. It may be impossible to stop, but they have not only slowed the outbreak in their own country, they’re putting a brake on its transmission to the rest of the world.
    I recall from a few years ago here in the USA, people thought the idea of quarantining a city or country due to Ebola was fascist blah blah blah. No such criticism of China’s Wuhan lockdown has been uttered, quelle surprise.
     
    Woolie, merylg, JemPD and 2 others like this.
  20. Milo

    Milo Senior Member (Voting Rights)

    Messages:
    916
    Likes Received:
    6,820
    Those cheap paper masks are effective for 5 minutes and not for the finer droplets. If you touch a contaminated surface such as a door knob, and then you fix your mask because your nose is itchy, you have just contaminated the mask.

    In this instance of a highly virulent disease, the N-95 masks, or better, are needed. I received an email from my nurses’ union (even though i haven’t worked for 11 years I still receive their emails), and advice was given that each members should have an updated fit test to ensure that the mask is effective and does not leak for them due to their anatomy.
     
    MeSci, Woolie, MarcNotMark and 6 others like this.

Share This Page