Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

[Patient4Life]

China Confirms New Coronavirus Spreads From Humans to Humans (Jan 20, 2020) By Javier C. Hernández and Austin Ramzy - The New York Times

A top Chinese government-appointed expert says a mysterious respiratory illness that has killed at least three people can be transmitted by humans, heightening concern about the outbreak.

WUHAN, China — The mysterious coronavirus that has killed at least three people and sickened more than 200 in China is now capable of spreading from person to person, a prominent Chinese scientist said on Monday, adding to fears of a broader pandemic.

The disclosure increased pressure on the Chinese government to contain a growing public health crisis, just as China enters its busiest travel season of the year.

The authorities had previously said the deadly virus seemed capable of spreading only from animals to humans in most cases, tracing the outbreak to a market in the central Chinese city of Wuhan.

But in recent days at least two people have become infected with the pneumonialike virus even though they live hundreds of miles from Wuhan, experts said on Monday, suggesting that the illness is spreading from person to person.

The virus now appears to spread between humans.
Researchers in China identified the mysterious pneumonialike illness in early January as a new coronavirus.

Experts initially said that it did not appear to be readily spread by humans, but on Monday Mr. Zhong said that in Guangdong, a southern province, two individuals appeared to have been infected by relatives who had traveled to Wuhan.

Mr. Zhong said the virus could be present in particles of saliva. He added that in one case, a patient appeared to have infected 14 medical workers.

Coronaviruses are named for the spikes that protrude from their membranes, like the sun’s corona. Such viruses cause several illnesses of the respiratory tract, ranging from the common cold to severe diseases like SARS.

According to the World Health Organization, common signs of infection include fever, cough, and respiratory difficulties like shortness of breath. Serious cases can lead to pneumonia, kidney failure and even death.

 

[Leila]

Sounds like the movie "Contagion" :/

 

[Snow Leopard]

Note that alphacoronaviruses are one of the viruses associated with the 'common cold'.

This current outbreak is due to a betacoronavirus somewhat similar to the SARS virus from 2003.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novel_coronavirus_(2019-nCoV)

 

[Hip]

So far out of the 300 confirmed cases of this new coronavirus, 6 people have died. So presumably that's a 2% fatality rate. Ref: here.

Thus if it does spread to the rest of the world's 7.8 billion population, I guess that's potentially 2% of the world dying, or 156 million deaths. That may beat the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, which caused an estimated 20 to 50 million deaths worldwide.

Human to human transmission of this coronavirus is confirmed possible, and as coronavirus is an RNA virus rather than a DNA virus, it's subject to rapid mutation, so could quickly evolve into a form which is spread more easily.

The WHO are going to decide tomorrow (Wednesday) whether to declare an international emergency.

 

[Cheshire]

2% fatality rate

it's the fatality rate of contaminated people. I guess if the epidemy were to spread and the mortality rate stayed stable, as not everybody would be contaminated, the death toll would be less severe.

 

[Hip]

it's the fatality rate of contaminated people. I guess if the epidemy were to spread and the mortality rate stayed stable, as not everybody would be contaminated, the death toll would be less severe.

Yes, it depends on what percentage of the population is infected with the virus. And that will depend on the evolution of the virus, and whether it evolves into a form which is more easily transmissible. If that does not happen, perhaps the outbreak will have only a limited impact.

Apparently with the 1918 Spanish flu, 28% of the US became infected.

 

[Mij]

They are taking passengers temperature while boarding or on planes for the lunar year.

 

[Patient4Life]

First US case in Washington State.

 

[Saz94]

How bad is this compared to the swine flu scare back in 2009(?) ?

 

[Milo]

British Columbia announced today they are taking the outbreak seriously by advising hospital staff, emergency services and airports.

They said they now have a test for this virus:

“The BC Centre for Disease Control has also developed a diagnostic test for the new coronavirus, which is different from the SARS outbreak when there was no similar test. The centre is co-ordinating staff and supplies to ensure they are prepared to quickly and accurately detect potential cases

Just like like that. Not one person affected in the province or even in the country. But they have a diagnostic test.

It sucks to have this illness. There are 78,000 British Columbians living with ME. No test, no meaningful health care.

Edit to add: here is the link to the press release

Edit #2: I understand this is an infectious disease that is deadly and spreads like wild fires. Seemingly governments understand that kind of emergency.

 

[large donner]

The people of China will need their government now more than ever I wonder if they will be taking precautions over limiting travel, mass inoculations, policy changes, limitations on liberties and extra personal data collection. Once they get this all under control the death toll will be in the tens.

 

[ScottTriGuy]

Just like like that. Not one person affected in the province or even in the country. But they have a diagnostic test.

My thoughts exactly.

 

[Hell..hath..no..fury...]

They are taking passengers temperature while boarding or on planes for the lunar year.

Super, hope they’re not doing it in north Vietnam too, my temperature is always crazy. I’m currently floating around in the sea not far from China. Had a hacking cough for last few weeks with temperature but I seem to have shaken it. Tons of people with hacking coughs here.

 

[Hip]

They said they now have a test for this virus:

That's amazingly fast work by the scientific community. This Wuhan coronavirus made its first appearance on 31 Dec 2019, and now within 3 weeks, we already have a PCR test for it (according to the WHO website).

 

[Patient4Life]

China quarantines city of Wuhan. Train stations and airport to be shut down.

 

[Milo]

China quarantines city of Wuhan. Train stations and airport to be shut down.

Sure, that would help, however it will not change the fact that the virus has already been transported and shared to surrounding countries and overseas.

 

[Esther12]

This reminds me of playing the mobile game 'plague'. The key to successfully wiping out humanity was evolving to be really infectious before the Olympics spread you all over the world.

That game has left me kind of rooting for the coronavirus.

 

[Patient4Life]

New coronavirus not yet declared a global health concern; WHO will meet again Thursday

The director-general of the WHO cited the need for more information before making a decision.

The World Health Organization is not yet ready to declare the newly discovered coronavirus a global public health emergency, health officials said Wednesday, even as the death toll reached 17.

More than 500 cases of the respiratory illness have been reported in China, mostly in or near the city of Wuhan. The number is expected to grow by the hour, as cases are detected in other countries, including the United States.

(Underline mine.)

The WHO has declared a global public health emergency just a handful of times in the recent past: the H1N1 (swine flu) pandemic in 2009; the 2014 outbreaks of polio in the Middle East and Ebola in West Africa; the 2015-16 Zika virus epidemic; and last year’s Ebola epidemic in Congo.

 

[Sisyphus]

China quarantines city of Wuhan. Train stations and airport to be shut down.

I will rarely utter a complimentary word about a Communist government, but China is acing this one. It is said that there are no public gatherings in Wuhan and everyone visible outside is wearing a filtermask, which should be enough to catch most of the droplets from respiration/coughs. It may be impossible to stop, but they have not only slowed the outbreak in their own country, they’re putting a brake on its transmission to the rest of the world.
I recall from a few years ago here in the USA, people thought the idea of quarantining a city or country due to Ebola was fascist blah blah blah. No such criticism of China’s Wuhan lockdown has been uttered, quelle surprise.

 

[Milo]

I will rarely utter a complimentary word about a Communist government, but China is acing this one. It is said that there are no public gatherings in Wuhan and everyone visible outside is wearing a filtermask, which should be enough to catch most of the droplets from respiration/coughs. It may be impossible to stop, but they have not only slowed the outbreak in their own country, they’re putting a brake on its transmission to the rest of the world.
I recall from a few years ago here in the USA, people thought the idea of quarantining a city or country due to Ebola was fascist blah blah blah. No such criticism of China’s Wuhan lockdown has been uttered, quelle surprise.

Those cheap paper masks are effective for 5 minutes and not for the finer droplets. If you touch a contaminated surface such as a door knob, and then you fix your mask because your nose is itchy, you have just contaminated the mask.

In this instance of a highly virulent disease, the N-95 masks, or better, are needed. I received an email from my nurses’ union (even though i haven’t worked for 11 years I still receive their emails), and advice was given that each members should have an updated fit test to ensure that the mask is effective and does not leak for them due to their anatomy.