Our lab is relatively young. It's less than four years old. I brought my team from Imperial College London, where I have been for 21 years, latterly as head of surgery and cancer. So I've got clinical experience in employing translational technologies as well as the actual scientific side.
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Long COVID is a hybrid of multiple diseases. I'm not sure that it can never be properly defined because of the heterogeneity of the disease. It's heterogeneous in time as well as in symptoms and biochemical properties. People have different severities and different rates of development. They have different rates of development of long COVID. They have different recoveries of long COVID. They have different sub-organ systems that are affected in long COVID.
Furthermore, there is a lot of other underlying biochemistry that is perturbed in COVID and long COVID that isn't necessarily related directly to symptoms. This is what we call occult long COVID. The person is biochemically extremely badly deranged. They don't necessarily feel any symptoms, but the biochemical derangement will change their long-term disease risks. To me this is one of the things that has been underestimated in the community and by physicians, simply because they haven't had the right sorts of measurements.
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Fortunately, mainly through our Imperial College London connections, we've been able to establish an international network of groups, some of which have laboratory equipment similar to ours, so we can harmonise and exchange data. They are groups from right around the world, including Cambridge and Harvard universities, where we've actually obtained lots of samples. We have tens of thousands of samples from around the world. This is powerful in a number of different ways. Firstly, it statistically powers us in a way that we would not have been able to achieve if we had just been working out of Western Australia. Secondly, it allows us to cross model the disease across multiple ethnic backgrounds and different environmental backgrounds.
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Understanding the heterogeneity is critically important, and we very recently published a paper with Cambridge where we were able to use this method of modelling to predict who's going to get long COVID and who isn't. We think that in the future we'll be able to predict systematic subsets of long COVID as well. What is surprising and almost shocking is that the disease course is set incredibly early. Within the first day of infection you have a metabolic profile which predicts the outcome, and that can be whether you recover, whether you get long COVID or whether you're going to die, if you're an uninfected person.
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There are lots of different biochemical systems, and there are lots of different organs, which have—if the liver is affected, for instance, or the gut is affected, we've got neurological derangements. Although those have some commonalities they also have distinct metabolic features. For instance, one of the pathways that we've found is highly disorganised is the tryptophan to kynurenine pathway, and that is involved in lots of regulatory processes related to neurofunction. There are lots of neurodiseases that have got this pathway disordered, and it's profoundly disordered in COVID-19, so we think that the disorders of that pathway in particular are probably related to the neurological and the disease risk that you're going to get.
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This is a huge diversity of biochemistry, but it's all driven immunologically. Most of the systemic effects are the effects of the immune system actually fighting off the virus. In the work we've done with Cambridge we've found that people who get very mild respiratory symptoms have what we call a robust CD8 T cell response.
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But, in the process of those cells destroying the virus and the virus-containing cells, they also release loads and loads of cytokines, which switch on multiple pathways. Although the pathways are actually quite diverse, and in different organ systems, they're all driven by the immunological response of the body, and long COVID is an immunological disease.
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The disease is only a few years old. We know very little about it and it's also dynamically evolving in time. It's a genetically unstable disease—it probably will never stabilise—so it's going to keep throwing new things at us for years to come. So we need to continue the basic research. But in particular we need to couple that with very practical clinical sampling and data collection. And so far, Australia has not gone brilliantly well on that.
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We can get metabolic signatures that predict who is likely to recover. We can get that very, very early on in the disease course. That means that if they don't recover, it means they're going to get long COVID or possibly even die. What we are trying to do at the moment is to distil out that complex information, to say, 'Is there a particular phenotype associated with neuro damage; is there one associated with cardiovascular risk; is there one associated with diabetes?' We're confident that information is in there, but we haven't done enough research yet to refine the mathematical models that allow it to be used in a truly clinical sense, where doctors say, 'I know this; we're going to do that.' We are probably one or two years away from being able to do that.
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The other thing is that there is an opportunity to do something a bit more visionary here. What we do and what we did—and we have a major program at Imperial College London—is systems medicine, where the whole philosophy of diagnosis and intervention is around this integrated model of the body. Still in Australia, I find— this is not designed to be rude but it's just what I find—people are still very siloed in terms of what they do: a hepatologist here, a gastroenterologist there or whatever it is. In the UK, the NIHR in particular fosters interdisciplinary research to a level that doesn't exist in Australia at the moment. And I think it's a pity. It's missing a trick, because you can really accelerate developments if you have multidisciplinary teams working on projects—any project. We call that systems medicine.
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I don't think there's any fundamental evidence that the different variants are different in terms of the symptoms and the sub-varieties that they cause. There may be some slight shift between, say, neuro versus diabetes. There might be. I haven't seen the evidence for it. But bear in mind that most of these systemic effects are immunologically driven. Each of the variants is still driving the immune system; it's just some are stronger at doing it than others. They're more virulent than others, if you like.
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The other thing, which I did mention in the submission, which I think is also underestimated and important is children. There's nothing that we worry about more than our children. And although children only have mild respiratory disease generally—there's also the multiple inflammatory syndrome of course—metabolically they're very seriously ill. We've been working with Alessio Fasano, who's head of paediatrics at Harvard. We've been looking at children who've got really quite mild COVID but metabolically are the same as adults on intubation. It's quite shocking. We're just writing that up at the moment. And what that means to me is that, although we haven't seen it yet, there's a possibility that we've created a new set of disease risks for our children which might change their risk for almost anything, including changes in their life expectancy.