Could you please expand a bit on this and explain in detail? I'd really like to understand.
There are various factors that make me say that having looked at the results in detail. But I will try to pick out the main points.
It is worth remembering that the first blinded study gave a negative result at the primary end point. It was only because it was noticed that there was an apparently significant difference at 6 months that it was thought a real benefit might have been missed.
In this first blinded study there was no pattern to the 'response' time curves. I spent ages looking for consistent curves and found nothing. When you have real responses they follow a pattern - either immediate or slow or biphasic or whatever. There was nothing to see in the first study.
After this was published I pointed out that the primary endpoint should probably have been at 6 months because that is when improvement is clear in autoimmune diseases. From this point on an unblinded follow up study was done and in this study there were consistent patterns of 'response' over 6 months, with relapse around the time of B cell return. Whether this was due to suggestibility of patients or doctors or both I don't know but it had not occurred in the blinded study.
Then in the last blinded study there were similar 'typical responses' but there were slightly more in the placebo group, so they were spurious.
Peter White tried to persuade us that the results PACE must be genuine because there could not be a major or prolonged placebo response in ME/CFS. The rituximab studies show he was wrong and that is an important part of being able to say why the PACE results are no better than any other unblinded study. You can get major placebo responses in ME that last for years. That may be an uncomfortable fact but we have to accept realities. Otherwise we are in the same fairyland as the BPS people.
If there was a real autoimmune subset they should have shown up in the first trial. The time curves for different measures in at least some cases should have been internally consistent with all the different measures going down together and up together. I could not find that anywhere in the data. It worried me from the start but I thought that the chance of an effect was so important that it was worth doing a further trial.
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Rituximab and placebo response
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