Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

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Michiel Tack said:
Thought this was an interesting report in the BMJ (it's open-access):Covid-19: identifying and isolating asymptomatic people helped eliminate virus in Italian village

Look forward to seeing his data published.
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I listened to a BBC Radio 4 science program in the last few days.

The Grand Princess cruise ship was discussed. Around 50% of those who tested positive had no symptoms. Most subsequently developed symptoms; however, around 18% did not. I guess that all of those infected shed virus --- so there are people with no symptoms shedding the virus.

Interestingly 19% of those on the ship were infected. Reminds me of @Jonathan Edwards comments about the virus affecting fewer people than expected in these situations. Presumably this relatively low transmission rate reflects the steps taken to contain the virus (on the ship).
 
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10....QSVNhdeSWYOg1ITvYAlvu2vw2cggfIeVn-N0yVc4OMLdg
Early epidemiological assessment of the transmission potential and virulence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan City: China, January-February, 2020
View ORCID ProfileKenji Mizumoto, Katsushi Kagaya, Gerardo Chowell

...

We also found that most recent crude infection fatality ratio (IFR) and time-delay adjusted IFR is estimated to be 0.04% (95% CrI: 0.03-0.06%) and 0.12% (95%CrI: 0.08-0.17%), which is several orders of magnitude smaller than the crude CFR estimated at 4.19%
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Are the authors right here, that the infection fatality ratio has been grossly exaggerated? Or are they missing something?
 
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Boris Johnson on 3 March:

“I’m shaking hands continuously. I was at a hospital the other night where I think there were actually a few coronavirus patients and I shook hands with everybody, you’ll be pleased to know. I continue to shake hands.

“We already have a fantastic NHS, fantastic testing systems and fantastic surveillance of the spread of the disease … I want to stress that for the vast majority of the people of this country, we should be going about our business as usual.”
 
Given that he will obviously have been relentlessly social distancing for at least the last week does this mean that it can be concluded that social distancing doesn't work, that it is just something to give the population to do that seems plausible, and is therefore pointless?

Or has Boris been a very naughty boy and ignored the 'advice' he has pronounced that everyone should follow (that is now law and enforceable) that he expects everyone else to follow on pain of well...a £30 fine.

I'm betting on the later.
 
FMMM1 said:
Interestingly 19% of those on the ship were infected. Reminds me of @Jonathan Edwards comments about the virus affecting fewer people than expected in these situations. Presumably this relatively low transmission rate reflects the steps taken to contain the virus (on the ship).
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It would be interesting to compare this infection rate with the rate when norovirus hits cruise ships, which I have heard about several times.
 
Trish said:
It would be interesting to compare this infection rate with the rate when norovirus hits cruise ships, which I have heard about several times.
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Yes.I recall that norovirus is much more likely to be contacted via hand rails etc. That's probably why the cruise ships had well developed procedures to contain coronavirus--- not much comfort to those infected though.
 
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Wonko said:
Given that he will obviously have been relentlessly social distancing for at least the last week does this mean that it can be concluded that social distancing doesn't work, that it is just something to give the population to do that seems plausible, and is therefore pointless?.
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I think I read that there can be an incubation time of up to 17 days. So really one week of isolation would mean nothing if he had already been infected.
 
Sly Saint said:
I have spoken to a few people as they walked past my garden today and I'm staggered that they really seem to believe this is all going to be over by June.
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This is the time the government is telling the most vulnerable group to shield to (i.e. for 12 weeks). So it is easy to see how the public think this means everything will be getting back to normal by then.
 
I wish my country will put a time limit on returning New Zealanders asap so that we can eradicate covid19 from within and then the country could just isolate from the rest of the world and eventually everyone can go back to work. Surely this could be achieved if the border is closed. Then this whole thing wont drag on and on with lockdowns, more spread and people dying.
 
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Recently Canada has implemented the Quarantine Act:

Requires any person entering Canada by air, sea or land to self-isolate for 14 days whether or not they have symptoms of COVID-19. They are forbidden to shop on the way home, they are ordered to go straight home and STAY THERE.

The Government of Canada will use its authority under the Quarantine Act to ensure compliance with the order. Failure to comply with this Order is an offense under the Quarantine Act. Maximum penalties include a fine of up to $750,000 and/or imprisonment for six months.

Further, a person who causes a risk of imminent death or serious bodily harm to another person while wilfully or recklessly contravening this Act or the regulations could be liable for a fine of up to $1,000,000 or to imprisonment of up to three years, or to both. Spot checks will be conducted by the Government of Canada to verify compliance
 
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