Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

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Rosie said:
I wish my country will put a time limit on returning New Zealanders asap so that we can eradicate covid19 from within and then the country could just isolate from the rest of the world and eventually everyone can go back to work. Surely this could be achieved if the border is closed. Then this whole thing wont drag on and on with lockdowns, more spread and people dying.
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I agree. This has to be the way to do it.
 
So way way way upthread (like, maybe 50 pages ago??), I asked why the U.S. didn't just using the WHO test that others were using. For a couple of weeks I've come across various explanations for why we don't have enough tests such as this one in the Atlantic, this one at the New York Times, or this one in Vox, which all focused on the problems with the first test the CDC came up with being faulty, the FDA red tape, etc. But it was good ol' Snopes who answered the question for me:


China developed its own test. Leading laboratories in Germany published their own version, which was adopted by the World Health Organization. Many countries, including the United States, developed their own tests.

The traditional U.S. strategy for devising new diagnostic tests starts with the CDC. That is supposed to ensure new tests are accurate and reliable, but it also meant that other parallel approaches were not aggressively pursued.

In an interview with CNN on March 12, 2020, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, stated that it would have been “nice to have” the WHO tests as a back-up to the CDC’s tests, but characterized it as a case of hindsight being 20/20.
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It appears that it never really occurred to anyone to use the WHO test as the CDC just automatically creates its own test and it never occurred to anyone that the CDC could ever f!@# up the test, thus losing valuable weeks. But, you know, they had war gamed pandemics and their models never showed this could happen so how could they have ever known??
 
Rosie said:
I wish my country will put a time limit on returning New Zealanders asap so that we can eradicate covid19 from within and then the country could just isolate from the rest of the world and eventually everyone can go back to work. Surely this could be achieved if the border is closed. Then this whole thing wont drag on and on with lockdowns, more spread and people dying.
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I think Kiwis will always be allowed to return but they will have to isolate on arrival.
Some of the scientists advising the government are arguing very strongly for keeping borders closed for a very long time. Undoubtedly there'll be others, likely from the industries most affected, lobbying behind the scenes for earlier lifting of restrictions. Let's hope the government listens to the former.
 
Rosie said:
I wish my country will put a time limit on returning New Zealanders asap so that we can eradicate covid19 from within and then the country could just isolate from the rest of the world and eventually everyone can go back to work. Surely this could be achieved if the border is closed. Then this whole thing wont drag on and on with lockdowns, more spread and people dying.
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The inflow of people into NZ has now slowed to a trickle, essentially only NZ citizens or permanent residents are allowed in. There are going to be good reasons for some people to come into NZ; it's how they are dealt with when they arrive that matters. It sounds as though measures to enforce self-isolation are quite good now.
 
FMMM1 said:
I listened to a BBC Radio 4 science program in the last few days.

The Grand Princess cruise ship was discussed. Around 50% of those who tested positive had no symptoms. Most subsequently developed symptoms; however, around 18% did not. I guess that all of those infected shed virus --- so there are people with no symptoms shedding the virus.

Interestingly 19% of those on the ship were infected. Reminds me of @Jonathan Edwards comments about the virus affecting fewer people than expected in these situations. Presumably this relatively low transmission rate reflects the steps taken to contain the virus (on the ship).
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It's also a good reminder that a large portion of asymptomatic positives can go on to develop symptoms, in this case about 2/3rds, more than actually ended up being asymptomatic.

I saw this and found it pretty interesting and topical to your comment

The study looked at computerized tomography (CT) scans taken from 112 people who had contracted confirmed COVID-19 on board the Diamond Princess with an average age of 62, although the ages ranged from 25 to 93 years old. Of the 112 people scanned, 73% of them didn’t have any clinically obvious symptoms but half of these people had detectable changes in their lungs indicating some level of pneumonia. Of the 27% of people who did show COVID-19 symptoms, 4 out of 5 people showed abnormal CT findings.
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/victor...ip-data-to-learn-about-covid-19/#3a596b91406d
 
dreampop said:
It's also a good reminder that a large portion of asymptomatic positives can go on to develop symptoms, in this case about 2/3rds, more than actually ended up being asymptomatic.

I saw this and found it pretty interesting and topical to your comment



https://www.forbes.com/sites/victor...ip-data-to-learn-about-covid-19/#3a596b91406d
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Yes I think @Jonathan Edwards posted that the scans, of the lungs of people infected with coronavirus, were highly distinctive/diagnostic (probably poor reflection of Jonathan's actual comments!).

They used scans in China i.e. to rapidly identify those infected.
 
Hope this is posted in the right spot.:)

Vaccine tracker info from RAPS:

https://www.raps.org/who-we-are

"About RAPS
The Regulatory Affairs Professionals Society (RAPS) is the largest global organization of and for those involved with the regulation of healthcare and related products, including medical devices, pharmaceuticals, biologics and nutritional products. Founded in 1976, RAPS helped establish the regulatory profession and continues to actively support the professional and lead the profession as a neutral, non-lobbying nonprofit organization. RAPS offers education and training, professional standards, publications, research, knowledge sharing, networking, career development opportunities and other valuable resources, including Regulatory Affairs Certification (RAC), the only post-academic professional credential to recognize regulatory excellence. RAPS is headquartered in suburban Washington, DC, with chapters and affiliates worldwide."

Groups working on a COVID-19 vaccine:
https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
 
DokaGirl said:
Groups working on a COVID-19 vaccine:
https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
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Most of those are going to be failures or have long timelines to production. Only one resembles a traditional vaccine like those on the regular vaccine schedule for other infections. Many are jumping on the bandwagon due to the sudden availability of funding to develop their experimental technology.

I personally hope one of the the recombinant or mRNA vaccines is highly successful, the others are just too experimental (long development time and risk of safety or efficacy issues) or have production speed/scale issues. Also, most of these vaccines will have their trials incredibly hyped, even if they barely work when compared to traditional vaccines.
 
Rosie said:
I wish my country will put a time limit on returning New Zealanders asap so that we can eradicate covid19 from within and then the country could just isolate from the rest of the world and eventually everyone can go back to work. Surely this could be achieved if the border is closed. Then this whole thing wont drag on and on with lockdowns, more spread and people dying.
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You could achieve the same by having compulsory testing and full quarantine fro all NZers entering after a certain date. More expensive, I suppose, but then you don't have to deny citizens entry to their own country.

Edited to add: I just saw @Hutan and @Ravn made the same point above.
 
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Ravn said:
A good explanation of the lag time between taking measures and seeing a result (with some moving graphics on the page).
https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/2...are-we-locked-down-for-so-long-blame-the-lag/
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That's interesting, but I'm wondering whether we might see some small turnaround in a week. Siouxsie's lag model assumes only symptomatic people will be tested, and that tests will generally not read as positive for a full two weeks. Its true we're not testing people systematically - but rather on the basis of symptoms - but the second one, isn't that the maximum incubation time, not the average?
 
Roy S said:
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And in my home state of New York, the governor has done absolutely nothing to promote manufacture the machines here. We are in a state of over 30 million people, with more wealth than most countries. We dozens of distilleries and breweries, Pot dispensaries and of course organized crime.
We also made critical parts and materials for the Manhattan project. You'd think we could make a fairly simple device. As a New Yorker, I can tell you that whenever possible, we don’t make stuff, we take stuff.
 
Jonathan Edwards said:
I agree. This has to be the way to do it.
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Yes, and thank you for giving us all an early warning to prepare. I was able to stock the freezer well for my mother and I. It was a huge help.

I think in future those who travel overseas should be prepared to be at risk of being locked out of their own country if a sudden pandemic outbreak happens again somewhere in the world while they are away from home.
Each country in the world should show hospitality to other nationalities locked out of their own country in this situation.

I have been reminded since this outbreak of the few times many years while standing at the counter in a bank and suddenly the roller cage came down giving myself and the bank teller a huge fright. The roller cage is protection in case of bank robbery or some other urgent safety reason. I can't help but feel the same thing should happen with immediate closing of a border.
 
I saw this footage today in the news with people in NY standing for hours in line for the hospital, very close to each other. And I was wondering, if they can stand up for so long, do they really need a hospital?

I don't know how health care works there, maybe it's the only place to get tested or help and people fear they will detoriate soon and won't make it in time. It just seemed very risky to stand in crowds with coughing people.

This I found interesting:

A New York Doctor’s Warning
China warned Italy. Italy warned us. We didn’t listen. Now the onus is on the rest of America to listen to New York.

"[...] we were told that positive-pressure oxygen masks, such as CPAP machines, were risky, as they would aerosolize the virus, increasing health-care workers’ risk of getting infected."

"If you have mild symptoms, assume that you have the coronavirus. Stay home, wash your hands, call your doctor. Don’t come to the emergency department just because of a fever or cough. Receiving a test won’t change our recommendation that you remain in self-isolation. We don’t want you to expose yourself to those who definitely do have the virus."
 
Woolie said:
You could achieve the same by having compulsory testing and full quarantine fro all NZers entering after a certain date. More expensive, I suppose, but then you don't have to deny citizens entry to their own country.

Edited to add: I just saw @Hutan and @Ravn made the same point above.
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I completely understand wanting to come home and feeling upset if I couldn't. I know I take a hard line on this but I just haven't trusted the quarantine situation as much as I would have liked. I hope I am not sounding really critical I don't mean to sound like I don't appreciate what our government has been doing. There are a lot of things that have really impressed me.

The only case that I would be happy with is would be to have an airport in an isolated area and tons of campervans or housing where those returning home could stay and wait out their quarantine. Even better if they could walk to it from the airport. And everyone to be under guard.
 
I agree that borders should be closed, apart from essential goods, and returning citizens (who should be strictly quarantined until safe).

Also think that anybody who thinks this is going to be over anytime soon is just not paying attention. This is the new normal for the foreseeable future, until we have a safe effective vaccine.

Roy S said:
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Hope it works better than his vacuum cleaners. :p ;)

Sisyphus said:
As a New Yorker, I can tell you that whenever possible, we don’t make stuff, we take stuff.
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Who knew that offshoring most of your industrial capacity could ever cause serious problems? Apart from anybody with more than a dozen working brain cells.

Australia, and many other 'western' countries, have made the same mistake. Relying too heavily on cheap overseas production. Now those chickens are coming home to roost.
 
Sean said:
I agree that borders should be closed, apart from essential goods, and returning citizens (who should be strictly quarantined until safe).
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The problem with quarantine is that you can see leniency given with some flying in from overseas. How did some family members get it when they hadn't flown or been overseas. Quarantine obviously wasn't strict enough.

I may have misheard this but I thought I heard on our 1pm covid19 news update that someone who had flown in had been allowed to drive home on their own to their home to quarantine - a five hour journey - hope they don't decide to stop at a dairy on their way home. What's more is that the rest of us who are in lockdown and told to stay in our local area and who have not travelled overseas but are doing our very best to abide by the rules and here we have a traveller who is at more risk of having covid19 and passing it on to others been given permission to take a long journey by car and police themselves. And here's the reason for my lack of trust.
 
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Woolie said:
That's interesting, but I'm wondering whether we might see some small turnaround in a week. Siouxsie's lag model assumes only symptomatic people will be tested, and that tests will generally not read as positive for a full two weeks. Its true we're not testing people systematically - but rather on the basis of symptoms - but the second one, isn't that the maximum incubation time, not the average?
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Yeah, I hope it's going to be quicker, too, but of course it all depends on how well people comply with the restrictions.

I agree that Siouxsie's lag model makes some simplified assumptions, which I'm sure she's well aware of. I think she's trying to keep it simple since her target audience is the non-sciency general public - and I strongly suspect her main intention with this article is to manage expectations. There's a danger if people expect results too soon and don't see them they'll think it's all pointless and start ignoring the social distancing pleas.
 
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