Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

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(Repeat of my comment elsewhere

I wonder will this cause her to reflect on the wild, unevidenced claim she made in a #CFS educational video (https://www.veoh.com/watch/v19931890Xyz2eEn7 :sick: ) that it was perfectly safe for a patient to walk even if they were exhausted, and similar views #MEcfs
@ClareGerada
Experience was worse than child birth ! Worst case of the flu I have ever had but spent most of it half awake. NOw very fatigued. Hopefully back to normal by Sunday. But still isolate for another few days after
 
@Jonathan Edwards @lunarainbows In posts this morning, you mentioned that the govt had u-turned on school closures. What did you mean? I can't find anything about school closures, except in Northern Ireland.

No, the U turn has come on mass gatherings. And even then, not until next week... :/

School closures, they haven’t said anything. Jonathan Edwards mentioned school closures separately in his post, and I mentioned it separately in my post too.. didn’t mean to get it mixed up with the mass gathering bit. Sorry!
 
So I want to ask, Do you think it can be turned around? Is there anything that can be done to persuade the government to at the very least change tack right now - and if so do you know if those people are doing it? Which scientists are the ones who are directly advising the CMO and chief scientific adviser?

I don't think the situation is ever too late. The isolation and distancing rules just need putting in place. I think fairly soon it will be as obvious to everyone in the UK as it has been in Italy that we will need lockdown of some sort. The spread will stop, as in China. It may take a bit longer than we would like and some people will die unnecessarily but it is not too late.
 
I don't think the situation is ever too late. The isolation and distancing rules just need putting in place. I think fairly soon it will be as obvious to everyone in the UK as it has been in Italy that we will need lockdown of some sort. The spread will stop, as in China. It may take a bit longer than we would like and some people will die unnecessarily but it is not too late.

Thanks Jonathan Edwards. It just seems very out of control because of how the government is handling this. So far just stopping mass gatherings and only next weekend. But yeah, there must come a time when even our government will realise they cannot continue with their plan. I feel so sad for the deaths that could have and should have been avoided.
 
I'm sure her response to this would be that Covid-19 is not perpetuated by unhelpful beliefs.

How does she know? Did she test positive? There's such a thing a mass hysteria....there was an outbreak years ago at the Royal Free I'm told....:sneaky:

For the record her medical history is none of my business. My post is less to do with her than to do with illnesses for which there are no clear diagnostic tests or tests have not been performed.
 
According to TV 157 died from covid-19 in the province of Bergamo in one day. Some say this is because there was a cluster of cases and lockdown was delayed for too long.

There are also some good news. In the first area that was locked down, Codogno, there are no new cases. In some other areas the new cases are in decline.
 
This can be contrasted with what the BBC were saying yesterday:

The British strategy is to delay the onset of the peak of the disease until the summer months, when the NHS is under less pressure, and to spread the peak of the epidemic to make treatment more manageable. The aim has also been to manage the spread of the infection so that the population builds up some immunity to the virus should it return in successive years.

Efforts to stamp it out too quickly risk leading to the epidemic returning, perhaps during the winter, once the extreme measures have been lifted. This would be a time when the health service was again under pressure.

It is important to stress that this strategy has been drawn up based on evidence and input from many of the world's leading scientists and doctors, many of whom have been involved in controlling the spread of the virus in China and Singapore. And it is notable that no UK epidemiologists - specialists in the spread of diseases - have spoken out in the mainstream media against the UK government's approach.

There are undoubtedly some who do disagree with the strategy. But there is an acceptance by such critics that Sir Patrick and Prof Whitty are the ones in the hot seat, having to make the biggest calls they have made in their professional lives. So the science community is prepared to give them the benefit of the doubt and not speak out, for now at least.

Which is a milder formulation of what they originally claimed, and are now back-peddling from:

Clarification 14 March 2020: An earlier version of this article said no scientists had spoken out against the government. This has been updated to make clear that, at time of publication, no UK epidemiologists had spoken out in the mainstream media.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51874084
 
Clarification 14 March 2020: An earlier version of this article said no scientists had spoken out against the government. This has been updated to make clear that, at time of publication, no UK epidemiologists had spoken out in the mainstream media.

How mealy mouthed can you get?
And although the guy I spoke to from Radio 5 who said he was looking for quotes from microbiologists off the record challenging the government they end up having Clare Gerada. What a load of toadies.
 
This can be contrasted with what the BBC were saying yesterday:



Which is a milder formulation of what they originally claimed, and are now back-peddling from:



https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51874084

Wow they actually said that. Unbelievable. “No scientists had spoken out about the government”. I saw so many scientists speak out about it via twitter. What was that then?

Very annoyed with the media in the UK, especially the BBC, which seems to display a lack of critical thought about this plan.

There was one of the scientists interview on Sky news just now. Just went into the Living room for the first time today to watch it instead of my phone :D It was worth it. He was very good.

The lady keeps asking about delaying the peak and herd immunity. He said herd immunity is for vaccinations and there is no precedent for using herd immunity with a virus in the population. Also that every country is trying to reduce the peak and spread it out - That’s the aim of all - and they’ve done it with social distancing, and the evidence from China and now perhaps Italy shows that. And the govts plan will increase deaths. He said they were very concerned about the govts approach which is why they wrote the letter.

Edit: they asked about testing. He said right now the most important thing is the country needs social distancing
 
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I am just thinking that everyone has been comparing this virus to influenza of the endemic seasonal sort. But maybe it should be compared to polio. It became clear that polio had to be eradicated. I think Sars2/Covid19 will look the same. There is a death rate above 1% and the illness is horrible and requires high cost medical care. It may also have long term sequelae.
 
I am just thinking that everyone has been comparing this virus to influenza of the endemic seasonal sort. But maybe it should be compared to polio. It became clear that polio had to be eradicated. I think Sars2/Covid19 will look the same. There is a death rate above 1% and the illness is horrible and requires high cost medical care. It may also have long term sequelae.

Yes. When I was in the living room watching Sky News, they showed a clip of Patrick Vallance from his last press conference, he was saying how the illness causes very “mild” illness in most people. It is what keeps being used to justify the policy. So it’s ok to allow it to spread. It was very worrying to keep hearing it, and I think quite a section of the public went on board with the plan because of these things he said.
 
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