Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

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@Arnie Pye - I do think the response to the COVID-19 outbreak by USA government officials has been pretty bad.

I have not posted any links to stories about it because I did want to be seen as getting into a political debate, something which is forbidden on this forum. It's hard for me to know where exactly that line is, so I've been staying quiet.

For example, if I repeat a statement verbatim from the US president, and that statement is demonstrably false, which means that either the president is completely uninformed or he is telling a falsehood (or maybe other options I'm missing), then am I being political?

I'm not sure what moderators and other forum members think. And it's not like folks can't find that info if they want it. The US president is on camera a lot, and he tweets a lot, so it's very easy for anyone who wants to look up what he has said or tweeted.

Also, I often can't tell what is on topic vs. what is a tangent. Threads drift and I'm generally not sure what type of drift is allowed or encouraged.
 
@shak8 that is a really good statement. I find this interesting:

“WHO has consolidated our guidance for countries in 4 categories: those with no cases; those with sporadic cases; those with clusters; and those with community transmission.

For all countries, the aim is the same: stop transmission and prevent the spread of the virus.

For the first three categories, countries must focus on finding, testing, treating and isolating individual cases, and following their contacts.

In areas with community spread, testing every suspected case and tracing their contacts becomes more challenging. Action must be taken to prevent transmission at the community level to reduce the epidemic to manageable clusters.

Depending on their context, countries with community transmission could consider closing schools, cancelling mass gatherings and other measures to reduce exposure.”

But what’s the difference between clusters and community transmission? Take for example close by to me in a hospital someone with Covid-19 recently died, they say he/she picked it up in the UK. So that’s community spread because it’s in the community. Or is it still a cluster?

Italy I’m sure would count as community spread now. But what about other countries?

Edit: it looks like it is being classed as community transmission - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/health-51751933/coronavirus-community-transmission-highly-likely

Edit 2: which means the UK isn’t really following WHO advice
 
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lunarainbows said:
But what’s the difference between clusters and community transmission? Take for example close by to me in a hospital someone with Covid-19 recently died, they say he/she picked it up in the UK. So that’s community spread because it’s in the community. Or is it still a cluster?
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I would think a cluster is akin to a small area of fire in a forest, that has nonetheless taken hold and is now independent of whatever originally kindled it, and is now self sustaining, so likely to rapidly spread if not contained very urgently. Even small delays in doing so may well allow rapid spreading. To me the forest fire analogy seems quite relevant.
 
I cant remember if I asked this before or not, I couldn't see a post with it but I am pretty muzzy foggy so... my apologies if I did.
Does anyone know what the chances are of there being power cuts. I suppose if we had a bad storm when covid's is at it's peak then staff capacity to fix powerlines etc could be compromised?. I would like to find out whetehr China had powercuts during the worst? But I did a quick google & not been able to find anything, not sure if that my useless searching skills or??? anyone know?
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Cooking with Corona - coping with power cuts

 
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JemPD said:
All good questions @lunarainbows. What interests me a bit is if you look watch the video that automatically plays directly after the one shared up thread with the same Italian Dr but this time talking to channel 4 news in uk instead of Canadian news... it's a bit less 'danger!' in tone?

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I've noticed that, too! Which is strange because I'd think due to proximity UK would be more urgent to warn.
 
Quick question the answer to which I may have missed: why did the CDC decide not to use the WHO test for COVID-19 that everybody else is using? If South Korea seems to be doing fine with it, why didn't we use it?
 
I think clusters are when all the patients have been in contact with a known source ie, a man who had been to Italy, 2 people from the plane, the taxi driver, his parents, their neighbour.

Once the virus is in the community there will be people who have a mild case who pass it on to other people or the virus was on a bus handle, that is no known contacts. once we reach that stage it will be impossible to contain it by keeping people in quarantine, it will have to be self isolation, and the numbers will become exponential.

When all patients are from contacts there is no need to ban large gatherings if all contacts have been traced and tested but the danger point is the switch over as it goes into the community. If the government misses that point they will be too late.

If they announce it too early, there will always be people who get antsy and if no one seems to be getting sick they will start ignoring the advice just when it is needed.

Best if people avoid crowds and take precautions themselves. Even if it is not strictly necessary, we will be well practised by the time it is vital
 
JemPD said:
All good questions @lunarainbows. What interests me a bit is if you look watch the video that automatically plays directly after the one shared up thread with the same Italian Dr but this time talking to channel 4 news in uk instead of Canadian news... it's a bit less 'danger!' in tone

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I just watched the channel 4 version. Yes it is strange, but I think it may be contributed to by the questions Jon Snow was asking. So to the very specific questions he was asking, the doctor perhaps wasn’t able to give such “alarming” viewpoints, whereas in the other interview perhaps, there were different questions. I watched the Canadian one earlier though so may have forgotten things. But I do remember feeling more alarmed by the Canadian interview.

When Jon snow asked the doctor about ages, the doctor said actually there was a 20 year old who had just been admitted to the ICU, and seemed to be about to tell us more.. but then Jon Snow interrupted him and asked him about children, and we already know the answer to that is they don’t get hit much. I was a bit annoyed by that interruption as I wanted to know more. It seems in Italy They are now seeing younger people too. But wasn’t able to talk much about it.

But the doctor did still say that the reason he came to do these interviews was because he wanted to stress how important it was to be prepared because otherwise it can overwhelm their system.
 
Mithriel said:
I think clusters are when all the patients have been in contact with a known source ie, a man who had been to Italy, 2 people from the plane, the taxi driver, his parents, their neighbour.

Once the virus is in the community there will be people who have a mild case who pass it on to other people or the virus was on a bus handle, that is no known contacts. once we reach that stage it will be impossible to contain it by keeping people in quarantine, it will have to be self isolation, and the numbers will become exponential.

When all patients are from contacts there is no need to ban large gatherings if all contacts have been traced and tested but the danger point is the switch over as it goes into the community. If the government misses that point they will be too late.

If they announce it too early, there will always be people who get antsy and if no one seems to be getting sick they will start ignoring the advice just when it is needed.

Best if people avoid crowds and take precautions themselves. Even if it is not strictly necessary, we will be well practised by the time it is vital
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I don’t know if all the information is being released, but certainly in quite a few of the cases coming up in the Uk recently it’s been said in the media that they don’t know where those people got the infection from. In which case it’s somehow just been picked up in the community.
 
Just went on Social media (Facebook). Some people getting angry that a huge book event in America was cancelled. So many comments from people saying it’s media hype, and they’ve been told by healthcare workers that it’s just “another cold”, that they’ve lived through SARS and Ebola hype and they’ll survive this hype as well. And they’re not scared of catching it and will go to all their events. Is this what other people think?

I got so annoyed and posted links to the Italian doctors words from the frontline on twitter.

But seriously, this is where the danger lies. If individuals are not going to do their bit, if they’re happy to disregard everything just because they think it’s hype.. and be selfish about the fact they’re putting others in danger too..encourage other people to think the same way..it’s bad.
 
Can't believe it, I just watched Simon Wesley on a US PBS Newhour broadcast (about 34 minutes in)

He has a certain manic self-confidence that I'm sure I would find annoying. (No offense meant to bi-polar individuals.)

Here in the US, the governor of California today had a televised and long press conference and he spelled everything out.

it's a county by county, a very local decision regarding how much community spread there is, in other words, how much social distancing is suggested and then ordered.

And the reassuring bit for me is that the gov said the testing capablity is ramped up. Commercial testing is increasing and so that community surveillance will be done.
 
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shak8 said:
Can't believe it, I just watched Simon Wesley on a US PBS Newhour broadcast (about 34 minutes in)

He has a certain manic self-confidence that I'm sure I would find annoying. (No offense meant to bi-polar individuals.)

Here in the US, the governor of California today had a televised and long press conference and he spelled everything out. A guy you can trust (intelligent and moral) to give you the right info.

it's a county by county, a very local decision regarding how much community spread there is, in other words, how much social distancing is suggested and then ordered.

And the reassuring bit for me is that the gov said the testing capablity is ramped up. Commercial testing is increasing and so that community surveillance will be done.
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The news was sponsored by "American Cruise Line" :D
 
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