Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

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Sasha said:
I came away with the impression that they don't think they can stop the virus eventually sweeping through most of the population whatever they do
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I think that they don't think they can stop the virus without causing complete economic havoc - like all airlines going bust as well as large numbers of retail businesses etc. I think the mistake is to think that letting things rip will do any better.

The problem as I see it is that for at least a year the machinery of capitalism has to stop. If current businesses cannot cope with that I think one has to ask why not. What is the use of a system that cannot cope with people staying at home and not spending money on non-essentials during a crisis?

This is not a political point - just a reflection on reality.

They could of course stop the epidemic by doing what has been done in Wuhan and Singapore.
 
lunarainbows said:
I’ve been thinking about this. And perhaps why I find it so hard to understand things that people do, such as break their self isolation, or get angry about the fact they’ve been put in quarantine, or hold parties to rebel against it .. to me, doing that is just cruel and selfish.

Yes they themselves may think it doesn’t matter to them as they may not end up in hospital. But each and everyone one of us has a responsibility to those around us, the sick and elderly and vulnerable, and really those who will suffer are depending on those “healthier” people to keep them safe. That’s how society functions doesn’t it? When I make decisions in life, I always worry and think about how it will impact others and how much responsibility I have to keep others happy and safe.

I was interested to see what the Italian officials said today, or was it yesterday, about sacrificing their lifestyle to help others.

I think it perhaps does need to come from the top down, because lots of people perhaps may not care about ethics, but also appeal to ethical/moral concerns because some people will take that on board, but it really makes me sad how many people actually need to be told these things.
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Maybe our governements should not only be adviced by their CDCs but also PR firms regarding health and risk communication.

People have been mocked for panic buying food, masks and desinfectants when in fact that only shows that there is a dissonance between the footage being seen from China and now Italy and the words being heard from our officials ("flu kills more people").
 
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This is an important read.. (from twitter) - can read full thread if you click on link



“1/ I may be repeating myself, but I want to fight this sense of security that I see outside of the epicenters, as if nothing was going to happen "here". The media in Europe are reassuring, politicians are reassuring, while there's little to be reassured of. #COVID19 #coronavirus

2/ This is the English translation of a post of another ICU physician in Bergamo, Dr. Daniele Macchini. Read until the end "After much thought about whether and what to write about what is happening to us, I felt that silence was not responsible.

......

20/ I finish by saying that I really don't understand this war on panic. The only reason I see is mask shortages, but there's no mask on sale anymore. We don't have a lot of studies, but is it panic really worse than neglect and carelessness during an epidemic of this sort? “
 
Does anyone know what the time interval is between when a person first becomes contagious, to when they first start to show symptoms?
 
lunarainbows said:
This is an important read.. (from twitter) - can read full thread if you click on link



“1/ I may be repeating myself, but I want to fight this sense of security that I see outside of the epicenters, as if nothing was going to happen "here". The media in Europe are reassuring, politicians are reassuring, while there's little to be reassured of. #COVID19 #coronavirus

2/ This is the English translation of a post of another ICU physician in Bergamo, Dr. Daniele Macchini. Read until the end "After much thought about whether and what to write about what is happening to us, I felt that silence was not responsible.

......

20/ I finish by saying that I really don't understand this war on panic. The only reason I see is mask shortages, but there's no mask on sale anymore. We don't have a lot of studies, but is it panic really worse than neglect and carelessness during an epidemic of this sort? “
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This sounds a lot like the early warnings from Wuhan :(
 
Sasha said:
I came away with the impression that they don't think they can stop the virus eventually sweeping through most of the population whatever they do and that their main aim is to squash and spread the peak so that it's happening over the summer when the NHS is most likely to be able to deal with it. So if they lock down now, they only postpone a high peak later.
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I think part of the strategy is to try and slow it down so that not everyone gets it at the same time, in which case the health service just wouldn't be able to look after folk who become severely ill.

People here are for the most part following the advice to carry on as normal, as there's only been one reported case in the region. I thought the midday lane swim (attended mostly by older and disabled people) might be quieter today, but it was actually busier. Everyone I spoke to was expecting the advice to change reasonably soon, so they were getting a bit of swimming, water-walking, and stretching in whilst they still can.

Sasha said:
I wonder if anyone is working on that and if so, how near they are to mass production?
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Apparently a British scientist has been developing a breath test, which might – theoretically – prove more effective than swabs:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-51791451

[Minor edit for clarity]
 
If you are young and healthy its not a big deal in terms of direct health impact. But if older and/or unhealthy then it is much riskier. Unfortunately, modern society is very self-focused. Other people dying? Well, its other people, isn’t it. Thats the underlying true view of some, I think. Some seem annoyed that their life is inconvenienced by this virus and that others want to avoid it. Bit sad.
 
Sasha said:
Given the sort of work that Ron Davis has been doing, I was wondering why we don't have the ability to rapidly mass-produce testing-chips for this virus that we can just spit on and get a positive or negative diagnosis for this virus in 20 minutes. Near-instant diagnosis would be a game-changer.

I wonder if anyone is working on that and if so, how near they are to mass production?
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Near enough :

https://www.irishtimes.com/business...vid-19-test-kits-to-wuhan-hospitals-1.4190697
 
Joel said:
If you are young and healthy its not a big deal in terms of direct health impact. But if older and/or unhealthy then it is much riskier. Unfortunately, modern society is very self-focused. Other people dying? Well, its other people, isn’t it. Thats the underlying true view of some, I think. Some seem annoyed that their life is inconvenienced by this virus and that others want to avoid it. Bit sad.
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Yes, I brought this up at a work meeting last week. Was feeling peeved with people saying "Yes, but most people will only be lightly affected, it's only the elderly and those with preexisting medical conditions that are at risk. Pointed out I have close relatives with asthma and diabetes, and also have elderly relatives, and that it will be the same for plenty of other people who might themselves be healthy.
 
Sasha said:
A near-instant, individual test-kit would surely be transformational in stopping the spread of a pandemic.
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A lovely idea, but sadly many people are just too short sighted and self centered to either do such a test or inconvenience themselves by staying away from others if it was positive.

There have been self testing kits for drivers who who have had a drink. Still people either don't use em or drive anyway. People still drink and drive and there are hefty penalties if someone is caught.

Let alone where you might be positive for a virus but feel perfectly well.
 
Mij said:
People are thought to be most contagious when they are most symptomatic (the sickest).
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But that could simply mean people are most likely to pass the bug on when they are coughing and sneezing all over the place. Is someone happens to cough or sneeze (as people do anyway) during the incubation phase, I wonder if that cough/sneeze sends out just as virulent a dose of virus as later in the infection's course. Or does the above mean that people's spray is itself less contagious?
 
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Sasha said:
I was thinking of more of something that an individual could spit on and see the results for themselves, within minutes, rather than something where you need to collect loads of samples, ship them off to a lab and get a result eight hours later, though! A near-instant, individual test-kit would surely be transformational in stopping the spread of a pandemic.
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Yeah I know which is why I said it was almost there. For individual samples I believe the turnaround time is 4 hours or so. About 20 years ago in an previous life me and my boss met the head of Randox and he talked us through the prototype of this technology. Good to see it up and running.
 
An opinion piece by a group of Swedish doctors, professors and scientists, suggesting that Sweden should change strategy in order to slow down the spread.

(Läkartidningen is a Swedish medical journal published by the Swedish Medical Association.)

Läkartidningen: Sverige bör byta strategi för att bromsa spridning av coronaviruset
http://lakartidningen.se/Opinion/De...gi-for-att-bromsa-spridning-av-coronaviruset/

Google Translate, English ("Sweden should change its strategy to slow down the spread of the corona virus")

Google Translate said:
Quarantine of the whole of northern Italy is an unparalleled measure in modern times in Europe. In Sweden, most cases identified (over 200 on March 8) have been caused by returning from northern Italy. Until February 25, only one case was reported. The Public Health Authority has had to take back several statements about sars-cov-2: that the spread of infection outside China is unlikely, that the virus would not hit Sweden, that the "peak" in Sweden is reached. [...]

Sweden's strategy for dealing with the situation seems to consist mainly of contact tracking and isolation of the sick. [...]

The UK has about the same number of cases as in Sweden (over 200 of 21,000 tested on 7 February). There they are now trying to curb the spread of infection by means of various public health-oriented initiatives (in addition to contact tracking and isolation of the sick), for example to prevent large crowds, encourage reduced travel, give advice on quarantine in case of transmission of infections, close down schools (when children become infected) [5]) and shut down wards in hospitals and other health care facilities if the staff is suspected of being infected. [...]

The public health authority should take the situation seriously, as it does in the UK, and slow down the spread of sars-cov-2 as early as possible. More delays and chances can have fatal effects on public health in Sweden. Reducing the spread of infection and thus preventing new cases of covid-19 is not only the responsibility of the Public Health Authority, but the authority has an important role in communicating how the population should act to limit the effects of the virus. This task should be taken more seriously by the authority.
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