Jonathan Edwards
Senior Member (Voting Rights)
The ‘Lightning Process’: implausible, unproven, hyped and expensive
https://edzardernst.com/2020/06/the-lightning-process-implausible-unproven-hyped-and-expensive/
Short and sweet.
The ‘Lightning Process’: implausible, unproven, hyped and expensive
https://edzardernst.com/2020/06/the-lightning-process-implausible-unproven-hyped-and-expensive/
I remember that bit and also some other issues.
Would this work:
"Explicitly mentioning the verifiability of seemingly objective end-points here seems important, as one large study of the benefits of an alternative medical therapy in children and adolescents (SMILE), for example, included school attendance as an endpoint. According to the study protocol, it was planned to verify the self-reported data by checking against school records in random samples, so that these could count as objective outcomes.
In the original trial paper, however, school attendance was self-reported by study participants alone, but this (among other) deviations from the study protocol where only added in a corrected version following repeated criticism."
Could the school absence study also be referenced? Sorry, I don't remember details about that one.
Edited to add amendments in bold.
Could anyone check if the following paragraph is correct?
The intention in the SMILE protocol was that they would check against school records - but the trial paper doesn't state that they did
Any further help also appreciated (e.g. which measures did the school absence study use?)
Here's what happened with the school absence records: In both the feasibility trial and full trial protocols, they promised to vet self-reported school attendance with the actual records. Self-reported school attendance is like self-reported physical function--it is not an "objective" measure. So vetting it against actual records makes sense. The primary outcome initially was school attendance at 6 months. They also planned to measure school attendance at other times, including 12 months, but those were secondary measures.
When they published the paper, all the school attendance findings were secondary outcomes and solely self-reported. The paper made no mention of official school records. The self-reported six-month school attendance results, part of the original primary outcome (the rest of the original primary outcome would have been the official school records at six months), had null results. There were positive results at 12 months, so they touted that. But that was always a secondary result and in any event it was not vetted against official records. Or it was, and the records show otherwise, and they chose not to mention it. Either way, they promised official records and didn't provide them. And didn't mention the absence of these records in the paper. That's not allowed.
What Bishop got wrong was when she looked at it again was that she said, well, the school attendance was positive, so the outcome-swapping didn't make a difference anyway. Of course, she got two things wrong: 1) only the 12-month self-reported school attendance was positive; six month self-reported school attendance had null results, and school attendance at 6 months was the original primary outcome, not at 12 months. 2) They did not provide the official school record results. So even if Bishop had been right and the 12-month results were the original primary outcome, she would have been wrong because those results are not credible unless vetted by the actual records. The fact that they did not provide the actual records suggests they did not get them or they did and they didn't include them, for obvious reasons. I wrote Bishop back about this, but she ignored it.
Is this the correct one? https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/1/2/e000252
(Thread: https://www.s4me.info/threads/unide...school-based-clinics-2011-crawley-et-al.12187)
Just checking back. The intention in the SMILE protocol was that they would check against school records - but the trial paper doesn't state that they did - and the measure was downgraded to a secondary outcome measure anyway.
@Adrian will remember better than me probably...
Would this not have been at the transition of GDPR?As far as I remember they intended to measure school attendence and talked about access to school records but they published results based on self-reported attendence with a claim that it correlated well with school records but no figures were given. School attendance can be quite dodgy in than many schools may have rooms where someone can rest and so they would be recorded as present even if not in all lessons.
As far as I remember they intended to measure school attendence and talked about access to school records but they published results based on self-reported attendence with a claim that it correlated well with school records but no figures were given. School attendance can be quite dodgy in than many schools may have rooms where someone can rest and so they would be recorded as present even if not in all lessons.
In the 3,000-word correction/clarification, it was stated that they didn't get the school records--I forget why exactly.
From Scary Vocal Critic's excellent comment:
The protocol that: “The primary outcome measure for the interventions will be school attendance/home tuition at 6 months.” It is worth noting that the new SMILE paper reported that there was no significant difference between groups for what was the trial’s primary outcome. There was a significant difference at 12 months, but by this point data on school attendance was missing for one third of the participants of the LP arm.
I had not fully appreciated that the intention of the trial was to count both school attendance and home tuition.
Having supported my son through periods of both, I know that school attendance requires quite a different (and much better) level of health. Home tuition might consist of an hour of contact time with a teacher or parent, and then a few hours lying in bed working through questions. Or something quite different. But almost certainly not 6 hours a day sitting up being taught by a visiting teacher. Home tuition is very hard to define exactly or to quantify in terms of 'days of education'.
It seems possible, if school and home tuition are counted as the same thing, that a child might be attending school three days a week at the start of the trial and have moved to a relaxed 'home tuition' four days a week by the end of the trial and therefore count as improved on the measure of school attendance. They may even feel better now that they aren't using so much energy getting to school and sitting in class. But they still have ME.
I would like to know if 'home tuition' was counted as 'school attendance' in the SMILE paper and, if so, how it was defined. It would also be good to know what proportion of the 'school attendance' was actually 'home tuition', at the beginning and end of the trial.
Given that it seems that Crawley moved from a planned 'school attendance as reported by the school' to 'school attendance as reported by the parents/child', the inclusion of 'home tuition' as 'school attendance' muddies the water considerably. There is a lot more leeway for bias in how home tuition is quantified in self-reporting.
Also, the impact of 'home tuition' on the carer is much different to 'reliable school attendance'. Where home tuition is occurring, a parent is almost certainly at home, supporting the child. The impact on the cost of the disease to the family and society is much greater than if the child is able to reliably go to school. If home tuition continued to be counted as equivalent to school attendance, I wonder how that was handled in the cost benefit analysis.
Actually even 'school attendance that doesn't include home tuition' is quite a nuanced thing when it comes to cost benefit analyses of a treatment. If a child can reliably attend school three days a week, on the same days each week, then the carer can potentially work. But ME typically isn't like that. What is possible one week is not possible the next. This makes it very difficult for the carer to have a job that requires any sort of regularity in attendance or even productivity.
Even if the child was attending school for three days a week at the beginning of the trial and managed to attend 4 days a week for the particular two weeks the parents chose to report on at the end of the trial, that should not automatically be assumed to result in the carer being able to work and earn money for an extra day a week. It is quite possible that the child will need to be in bed all of the next week.
Clearly, for a sound cost benefit analysis of LP, we need to know if there was a stable improvement in the capacity of the child to attend school. That is going to require actual school records for at least a period of months, not two weeks. Preferably, due to the variability of school holidays and the cumulative effect of over-exertion, school attendance needs to be tracked for the year following treatment.
I was nearly done with high school when I got ill, and after having tried and failed two years to attend school, I became well enough by the third year that I could have 10 hours attendance/week in the autumn semester and 20 hours/week in the spring semester + home school for the rest. This solution allowed me to take courses that required labwork and/or had a lot of extra if one where to take it at home.Copying a comment I made back in 2017 on the Smile Trial over on Phoenix Rising - noting the missing school attendance data at 12 months, and the lack of clarity over how home tuition was quantified.
Given how schools work re: progrsss monitoring there should be predicted grades or attainment almost for each person who gets NE/CFS because they use this to measure ‘value added’ for schools by seeing whether a pupil who was eg really clever at start of year attained what they’d be reasonably expected to with good teaching, and do fir middle and lower down etc to total up a score.Just checking back. The intention in the SMILE protocol was that they would check against school records - but the trial paper doesn't state that they did - and the measure was downgraded to a secondary outcome measure anyway.
@Adrian will remember better than me probably...