But my concern is more fundamental than that. Such hypothesis work is inevitably speculative. By building on sand, the whole process looks like a waste of time to me. The hypothesis is based on the idea that we burn more amino acids for energy than is normal. I don't think there is good evidence for this — so why pursue the hypothesis instead of trying to nail down whether or not there is an amino acid issue?
I'm assuming this idea that signals from the innate immune system produce CAD which produces the itaconate shunt, causing reduced energy production is solid. My impression was that that is established biology, and it makes sense as a short term strategy. So, I think it's a reasonable place to look for clues. I think Chris Armstrong had his ammonia idea well before the itaconate theory, so he's probably feeling like it fits. I'm not sure how strong the evidence is for increased ammonia, but he sounds to be working on investigating it more.
As to nailing down the amino acid fuel use issue:
How could that be done directly? Would you get ME/CFS cells and give them a substrate with only glucose, or only fats, or only amino acids, and then assess energy production somehow? (survival as a measure might not be sensitive enough unless it is survival under a stress such as a salt solution, but maybe the seahorse machine would work, or measuring the presence of molecules of e.g. ATP?).
I guess there could be a problem if only some cells are affected, maybe some cells in some tissues i.e. that you might not sample the right cells. If you had brain cells from a person who died who had severe ME/CFS, maybe they would show the problem?
I think results from the Seahorse machine have been a bit all over the place in terms of energy production. Maybe the innate immune system trigger has to be there pretty much all of the time to cause a chronic switch? Could that explain why some serum from people with ME/CFS has seemed to affect energy production, even in healthy cells - the something in the blood? Maybe there is nothing particularly "stuck" in the cells, but it is that the signalling from the innate immune system that is "on"? The body thinks there is an infection somewhere that has not been brought under control by the adaptive immune system. In which case, you can't easily be separating the ME/CFS cells from their environment in order to check what fuel source is being used, or how much energy is being produced.
Maybe looking for levels of CAD in ME/CFS cells would be a good thing to do?
Clearly I'm flailing around here with not enough knowledge and not taking the time to think about the experimental results we already have, but I think there is some benefit in the basic idea that a normal early response to an infection (the reduction in energy) has somehow become chronic.
I also think that building very detailed mathematical models of biological processes is a good thing to do. Yes, they won't be perfect for a very long time, but by gradually putting the pieces of the jigsaw together, adding real data on the amounts of the various molecules under different conditions and adding connections between molecules as more is understood, I think they will generate useful hypotheses. Maybe it won't be the itaconate shunt that is the issue, but a model might eventually identify another problem.