The gathering storm: The transformative impact of inflation on the healthcare sector

This: The gathering storm: The transformative impact of inflation on the healthcare sector is one of a series of reports by management consultants McKinsey on the US health system - clearly it has a 'particular' perspective but in a reflection of the situation in the UK, MCKinsey are predicting widespread staffing shortages, something which is beginning to look like a global phenomenon:

"Clinical labor

The worsening clinical labor shortage is a significant contributor to our projected increase in healthcare costs over the next five years. By 2025, we expect a gap of 200,000 to 450,000 registered nurses and 50,000 to 80,000 doctors (10 to 20 percent and 6 to 10 percent of the workforce, respectively). 3 These shortages underpin our estimate that healthcare labor cost growth will outpace inflation. We expect clinical labor cost growth of 6 to 10 percent over the next two years, about three to seven percentage points above the prevailing rate of inflation, before a correction to about 0.7 percentage points over the prevailing inflation rate through 2027. 4

A combination of increasing demand and decreasing supply will drive this shortage. Increased utilization and nursing needs in ambulatory, hospital-based outpatient departments, home care, skilled nursing facilities, and hospice settings could lead to a 7 to 10 percent annual increase in demand for registered nurses between 2021 and 2025. At the same time, higher than normal attrition—7 percent per year in 2021 and 2022 before the rate returns to an estimated 1 to 4 percent in 2023—and retirements will exceed the number of new licensures, decreasing the total number of registered nurses working in direct patient care just as the number of required roles grows. We expect the attrition rate to normalize after 2022 if economic conditions worsen (nurses often keep their jobs or return to work to provide a second household income in tough times). But this factor will not reverse the overall trend. From a cost perspective, any base-pay increases will likely become the baseline; from a practices perspective, many nurses, especially in hospital settings, have sought to move away from direct patient care. Our surveys indicate that reasons include a perceived lack of support, safety, and flexibility."

More at link: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries...-impact-of-inflation-on-the-healthcare-sector

series link: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/gathering-storm

 

Mkinsey are a bit slow of the mark . The N H S in the U k have deliberately been short staffed for decades politics and costs has consistently kept the numbers of training places and jobs down . This was always destined to cause unnecessary loss of life and human suffering .

 

On the bright side, plenty of work for 'Workforce Strategy Consultants' who are only to pleased to offer their services, and are highly skilled at asking people for information and feeding that information straight back to them in a nicely formatted report