The biology of coronavirus COVID-19 - including research and treatments

Sarah94 said:
Yeah I read more and apparently it's because, out of the 94 people who developed covid, 90% of them had received the placebo instead of the vaccine. I don't understand how that means that the vaccine is "90% effective".

I guess we also don't know how many of the 43000 people were exposed to covid?
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Vaccine Efficacy is usually between 40%-60%. It's inconsistent and contradictory for Pfizer to illegally leak that their Covid vaccine is 90% based off manipulated facts from a trial.
 
Mij said:
Well, if Pfizer says it...it MUST be true? :emoji_eyes:
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My sentiments entirely Mij, I'm not anti-vax by any stretch of the imagination, but anyone who just takes their word for it is a bit naive iyam. It will need to be seriously scrutinised. I hope that need for scrutiny & interrogation of the rsearch will not be lost in the relief and urgent longing for a vaccine to 'save us' & save our way of life.
 
Wish all the mink farms in this world would just "cull" their pelts a tad early and euthanize the beasts.

Great deal of infection with SARS CoVi-2 virus in minks, and risk for mutations making the upcoming vaccines less effective.
 
Adrian said:
I found this blog useful in explaining
https://phastar.com/blog/250-statisticians-view-on-pfizer-covid19-vaccine-data

If I understand correctly the 43000 is the number of people enroled in the trial and they sample when 90 people get covid and then look at effectiveness. So 8 in the vaccine group will have got covid compared to 86 in the control group.
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But how do they know if the two groups of people had the same exposure to the virus? Are their assumptions on this valid?
 
I'm wondering if someone could update me on current thinking about routes of transmission into the body, and whether it's still believed that the eyes are a possible route, or whether it's since been decided that it's really only mouth and nose? If the latter, it would be nice to be able to rub my eyes again ...
 
Snow Leopard said:
They don't know. They just hope their randomisation wasn't biased in any way.
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Yea I guess the numbers are fairly big (23K in the control and test groups?) - so the exposure should be similar - I guess. Once they roll it out then it should be fairly clear i.e. the efficacy.
 
Arthritis drug 'cuts elderly Covid-19 deaths by two-thirds'

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/med...-deaths-by-two-thirds/ar-BB1b179f?ocid=ASUDHP

The daily pill, first earmarked as a potential Covid game-changer by a British firm, reduces deaths by 71 per cent in those with moderate or severe illness, researchers say.

Importantly, it works in the elderly, raising hopes that it will save the most vulnerable.

Called baricitinib, and marketed under the brand name Olumiant, it is a relatively new drug for rheumatoid arthritis that has been available for only three years.
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Wits_End said:
Arthritis drug 'cuts elderly Covid-19 deaths by two-thirds'

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/med...-deaths-by-two-thirds/ar-BB1b179f?ocid=ASUDHP
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I can't find any published results of a randomised trial of Barictinib.

The Karolinska trial is just a retrospective analysis:
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/11/13/sciadv.abe4724

There were three previous non-randomised studies discussed in this review:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7457585/
 
So that's now allegedly two vaccines we have which sound as though they might be viable - and the new one doesn't need to be deep-frozen, which is good. But I still don't understand how researchers can be so sure they're so effective if they don't know how many of their test subjects have actually been exposed to the virus ...
 
Wits_End said:
So that's now allegedly two vaccines we have which sound as though they might be viable - and the new one doesn't need to be deep-frozen, which is good. But I still don't understand how researchers can be so sure they're so effective if they don't know how many of their test subjects have actually been exposed to the virus ...
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The "deep freeze" is slightly exaggerated, mRNA vaccines don't have to be quite that cold.

But the choice between the vaccines shouldn't be based on whether one has to be deep frozen or not, it should be on the basis of the best safety vs efficacy record. By that measure, the adenovirus vector vaccines come in second place.

Also, don't put too much stock into these 90% "efficacy" claims as these claims are more marketing than evidence based - with the Astrazeneca vaccine being even more heavily promoted to governments than the others.
 
Wits_End said:
So that's now allegedly two vaccines we have which sound as though they might be viable - and the new one doesn't need to be deep-frozen, which is good. But I still don't understand how researchers can be so sure they're so effective if they don't know how many of their test subjects have actually been exposed to the virus ...
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They judge exposure by how many of the placebo people got the virus.
 
Wits_End said:
So that's now allegedly two vaccines we have which sound as though they might be viable - and the new one doesn't need to be deep-frozen, which is good. But I still don't understand how researchers can be so sure they're so effective if they don't know how many of their test subjects have actually been exposed to the virus ...
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I'm planning to listen to the Radio 4 programmes How to vaccinate the world [https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000py6s/episodes/player]

The presenter (Tim Hartford) was interviewed on BBC2 - Newsnight last night. I think one of his replies, re how long immunity would last, was - we'll just have to wait and see.

So far the sample size is small and the claim that the Modena (?) vaccine resulted in no serious cases of Covid is based on very limited data.

Yea the Modena vaccine is stored at -20 (home freezer) and then fridge for days (5 ish?). Even the Pfizer vaccine can be stored for days (5 ish?) in a fridge.

I'm interested in @Snow Leopard comments re adenovirus-based vaccines - can they be delivered in the short/medium term?
 
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