Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

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Daisybell said:
But from reading the figures, it seems that hospitals haven’t been full.
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I think you may have been misled. Certainly in the UK hospitals were overfull before the pandemic. During it both patients and staff were getting infected with Covid and dying on a regular basis. I don't think health services have in any way over-reacted. I get a direct account from my niece, who works as a GP in A and E and caught Covid pretty badly.

There is absolutely no way that it would be safe for cancer patients to be treated at the moment. It would be insane to go to a hospital.

In fact I am a cancer patient myself. I had an appointment booked for next week, which I have cancelled in order to avoid the risk of getting infected (I am over 70). So in a sense I have put myself in the same situation as your relative of my own volition because I know the risks.

Things are a dreadful mess and people are not getting treatment as they should but I would be extremely surprised if the Covid pandemic had changed any policies in the long term. That does not make sense. Everything is on hold temporarily but I don't think anybody is going to discharge people because of Covid. It is easy to get a garbled message. And it may also be the people will get forgotten not by policy but slip up - but that had been happening for years already. About ten years ago the urology department at UCL admitted that a third of its cancer follow up patients had just got lost in the system.

Yes, the situation is terrible, but it has nothing to do with over-reacting.
 
And Germany....

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...o-impose-toughest-restrictions-since-lockdown

edit to add- schools stay open

"GERMANY’S NEW RESTRICTIONS:
Restaurants, bars, nightclubs and similar establishments will be closed
All leisure facilities, such as gyms, theaters, opera houses, concert venues, fairs, cinemas and amusement parks will be closed
People will only be allowed outside with members of their own household and one other and gatherings will be limited to 10 people; violations would carry penalties
Citizens urged to refrain from private travel and visits to relatives; hotel accommodation restricted to non-tourist purposes
Schools and daycare centers will stay open, as well as supermarkets and hairdressing salons, under existing hygiene regulations" ( bloomberg)
 
Sasha said:
Very sorry to hear that. It must be especially stressful under the current circumstances. I hope you're able to get good care, one way or another.
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Don't worry, @Sasha, I am not at all stressed by it. I have had the very best of care (organised by my wife's diligence in researching the problem) and am fortunate in that I know exactly what needs to be done when anyway. If I have a recurrence, as is usually the case there will be no rush because it will be a matter of slowing things rather than cure. But fortunately the chances are now small.
 
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Cheshire said:
Lockdown in France for the next 4 weeks. But schools remain open...
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That sounds sensible, if for complicated reasons.
Information from my daughter is that Covid infections have been pretty rife in schools, with a lot of schools brushing things under the carpet. I suspect much of the recent upsurge is due to schools and universities. But I strongly suspect that the super spreaders and superspreadees will mostly now have done their spreading. That is very much suggested by the flattening of the sharp uptick in the last five days. So maybe schools are OK to keep running.
 
Jonathan Edwards said:
Don't worry, @Sasha, I am not at all stressed by it. I have had the very best of care (organised by my wife's diligence in researching the problem) and am fortunate in that I know exactly what needs to be done when anyway. If I have a recurrence, as is usually the case there will be no rush because it will be a matter of slowing things rather than cure. But fortunately the changes are now small.
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Glad to hear this Jonathan.
 
Cheshire said:
At the demand of their hierarchy


Shools have been closed for one week and a half so it may have influenced te very recent numbers.
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In the UK the flattening preceded the half term holiday.
I am not clear what these sudden flattenings mean because I don't think they fit a simple model. My best guess is that they relate to the superspreading issue, which can be switched off suddenly as a result of adjustment of behaviour in 'microcosms' where rapid spread has recently occurred.
 
Jonathan Edwards said:
In the UK the flattening preceded the half term holiday.
I am not clear what these sudden flattenings mean because I don't think they fit a simple model. My best guess is that they relate to the superspreading issue, which can be switched off suddenly as a result of adjustment of behaviour in 'microcosms' where rapid spread has recently occurred.
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I hope you're right, but I remain to be convinced. We'll know in a few weeks I guess.
 
Daisybell said:
Does anyone know how many people have died because of the restrictions, rather than because of Covid?
I have held off from giving my opinion on the management of the spread of the virus mostly because I really don’t know what the right course of action is.

I feel that we should be trying to reduce transmission - but that the costs are so high in terms of the reduction in care for other health conditions - that lockdowns may be killing more people through indirect means than saving people by direct action. Certainly the figures for heart attacks, strokes, cancer etc are looking horrible in many parts of the world....

Somehow the health systems around the world need to find a way to manage Covid (in stand-alone facilities) so that other people can still access the healthcare they need in a timely and safe manner.

My mother was having regular chemo before Covid. Since the outbreak, she hasn’t even had a face-to-face check-up with a doctor of any kind....
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I found parts of this BBC Radio 4 program (inside health) positive e.g. doing rapid testing in 12 minutes. With the low rates in New Zealand and the technology improving (rapid testing) then I assume the risk analysis would indicate that you can start treating people for cancer etc. --- I don't know though---

If you're in the UK then unless they follow @Jonathan Edwards advice i.e. aim to get rates as low as possible, things don't look good re accessing health care. Interesting that @Woolie piece indicates that a hard lockdown works --- 3 cases/day from a peak of 700/day --- in three months -- surely something to aim for in the UK?
 
FMMM1 said:
I found parts of this BBC Radio 4 program (inside health) positive e.g. doing rapid testing in 12 minutes. With the low rates in New Zealand and the technology improving (rapid testing) then I assume the risk analysis would indicate that you can start treating people for cancer etc. --- I don't know though---
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I had my operation 2 weeks ago after having cancelled in March due to covid outbreak here in NZ. While in hospital I asked one of the medical staff if they were very busy with a backlog of patients and they said no. This was day surgery. My mother was in A&E a week ago and things seemed back to normal there. I don't know about other specialties though.
 
FMMM1 said:
Interesting that @Woolie piece indicates that a hard lockdown works --- 3 cases/day from a peak of 700/day --- in three months -- surely something to aim for in the UK?
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It worked in the UK in April. London went from 1000 cases day to about 10. Then Grant Shapps told everyone to follow him on holiday to Spain and test and trace was not put in place...

You actually need to get to some days with no cases before you want to ease off. In many ways the smaller the number of cases the greater the argument for keeping hard control because it is the few rogue asymptomatic super spreaders that do the damage.
 
Daisybell said:
I’m sorry but I don’t agree with this @Jonathan Edwards - my mother’s care has not stopped because she doesn’t want it - it has stopped because the doctors won’t see her. They think that the risk of her being exposed to Covid is too great for her to attend for chemotherapy. Which is basically saying they won’t put her at an immediately increased risk, but are prepared to increase the risk of her cancer returning in the longer-term. The health service is denying her care. And having done so for six months, she doesn’t think they will restart her treatment. I’m sure she won’t be unusual in this regard.
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Maybe (assuming you and you're mum are in New Zealand) the question needs to be asked (of politicians) -- why are people not being treated?

If you look at countries with comparable infection rates then are there health care systems functioning? How are things going in other countries, with comparable rates, which are continuing to provide treatment?
 
Jonathan Edwards said:
Yes, I may not have been very clear - they will not see her because they judge it too dangerous for all concerned. The A and E situation is different - that may have confused. Emergency care is not restricted but elective care has got pushed out because the system cannot cope.

I was trying to focus on the mistake of muddling up restricting non-essential activities in general and the need to restrict access to medical care once the failure to restrict general activities has made it unsafe to go to clinical facilities.

You might say why is medical care being restricted - why isn't it continuing. The answer is that there are no safe facilities left where distancing and PPE etc can be put in place. Facilities and staff normally looking after other illnesses had to move over to Covid care just to keep people alive. By June the situation was improving but now we are back to square one or worse because the restriction on general activities were relaxed.

I was upset that on the BBC a newsreader said that we had learnt that the NHS was not overwhelmed in the first phase after all. This is absurd because the NHS had been overwhelmed even before Covid came along and was even moire overwhelmed - to the extent of there being about 20,000 unnecessary deaths - when it did.
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To be fair the BBC Radio 4 (Evan Davis) had an interview this evening with a doctor in Altnagelvin Hospital (North West Northern Ireland). The doctor explained that they didn't have enough beds to admit the people who needed hospital treatment - sounds overwhelmed ---.
 
Daisybell said:
She lives in the UK. From talking with her, the restrictions are having a significant impact on people being able to access healthcare - from the GP up.
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And I'm starting to get the impression that GPs may be struggling to cope. Not sure how widespread it is, but I think I'm picking up a few worrying signs.
 
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