Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

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Wits_End said:
And even more depressing news: the pandemic is "speeding up"

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/hea...peeding-up/ar-BB167lKf?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=ASUDHP
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I don't think we should be depressed by what Tedros is saying. The pandemic is bound to be speeding up at this stage because it is still getting in to new areas. He is simply pointing out that it is crazy for countries to start easing off restrictions when we are still maybe only 10% into the extent of the spread. And trying to persuade countries on the upswing to be diligent about contact tracing from the start.

From a selfish point of view it my actually be in our interest for the virus to rip through those countries that have opted not to control it. If they get herd immunity that helps to stop virus being brought back home to us.
 
Jonathan Edwards said:
From a selfish point of view it my actually be in our interest for the virus to rip through those countries that have opted not to control it. If they get herd immunity that helps to stop virus being brought back home to us.
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Okay, we're on it over here.

Sean said:
2020 is not shaping up as good year for the human race. Particularly as our troubles seem mostly self-inflicted.
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What? Have you seen the NASDAQ 100 index lately? The future is brighter than ever ;)
 


It would be great if they could release all data to local councils instead of hoarding it for no apparent reason and things being drip fed to the media.. we need to know exactly where the infections are, as they’re happening..otherwise how can anyone make any decisions?! Also why are local lockdowns being handled from up on high by the Central govt.. Not really local is it...: unamused:

“Leicester-style localised lockdowns are 'just days away' from being imposed after dozens of towns and cities saw coronavirus cases surge in the past week, it was claimed today.

Bradford, Doncaster and Barnsley are said to be at the top of the Government's list of potential Covid-19 hotspots as the virus continues to run rampant in Yorkshire.

Parts of Kent, the North West of England and more than a dozen London boroughs are also being kept under review after clusters of cases in the last week.

Public Health England and Department of Health sources told Sky News they had earmarked 36 Covid hotspots in England where lockdowns could be 'just days away'.

But the Government is yet to officially confirm which areas are most at risk of outbreaks. And the full extent of local infection rates is also still unclear because of a huge gap in the data given out to the public and what is known inside Number 10.“

And on their dodgy figures..

“For comparison, Leicester officially recorded just 80 new positive tests between June 13 and June 26, according to the Government's official testing data. But health secretary Matt Hancock revealed that there were in fact 944 diagnoses made during that time, when Pillar 2 testing was included. ”
 
Daily coronavirus cases in US have nearly doubled in the last fortnight

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coron...-fortnight/ar-BB16dzvX?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=ASUDHP


This article reflects how serious the pandemic is in certain parts of the world (the bolding is mine):

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/med...-right-now/ar-BB16dLNK?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=ASUDHP

Dr Tedros said both countries brought their epidemics under control with a combination of leadership, humility, active participation by every member of society, and implementing a comprehensive approach.

This comprehensive approach included testing, physical distancing, contact tracing and using masks in public places.
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It's hard to put in perspective just how bad things will get in the US. Especially considering they already are maximally bad, it will get much worse. Some of the governors have loudly declared they will not change anything and plan on fully reopening ASAP. In some of those states the curve is worse than NYC at its worst.

The border between Canada and the US is closed for all but essential travel and freight, and even on that there is support for restricting that further. It is unlikely to reopen in the next 12 months. We even have authorities giving out warnings for how to spot US tourists who lie at the border about going to Alaska and only intend to sightsee.

 
I was just thinking, at the beginning of the pandemic - even though China didn’t admit to the extent of coronavirus until late in January - if, at that point, all countries had locked down their borders and enforced 14 or even 28 day quarantine for all overseas travellers from all countries, no exceptions.. (stopping border control with only China wouldn’t have been enough as it could have spread to other countries by January, undetected).

If they had done that, and combined it with rigorous testing and tracing for the very few cases within their own country..then, within a short period of time, and giving time to China to deal with their epidemic which they have done quickly, wouldn’t every country in the world have been free from Coronavirus completely or very very close to zero? It would have burned itself out. Then they could have re opened borders.

Yet international travel was deemed to be most important; even now it’s starting up again, even over the long term health of the world and all its citizens? That’s literally the way to re introduce infection back into countries. It also does show that so many countries really are not self sufficient, they rely on tourism hugely (and for people from other countries to fill the gaps in jobs too.) I hardly went on holiday, and apart from a school trip I only went abroad for the first time when I was 20, and then once after that, so I find it hard to understand. I just find the whole needing to travel abroad so much, and take airplanes so much, during an actual pandemic, really weird.
 
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lunarainbows said:
If they had done that, and combined it with rigorous testing and tracing for the very few cases within their own country..then, within a short period of time, and giving time to China to deal with their epidemic which they have done quickly, wouldn’t every country in the world have been free from Coronavirus completely or very very close to zero?
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It didn't even need to be as ruthless as that. The first wave of Chinese origin in the UK petered out on its own with some local tracing. By the second week of February it was clear that air traffic should stop and I think if it had then most countries could have taken the New Zealand path. Nothing has been gained by keeping air routes open other than prolonging the problem.
 
lunarainbows said:
I was just thinking, at the beginning of the pandemic - even though China didn’t admit to the extent of coronavirus until late in January - if, at that point, all countries had locked down their borders and enforced 14 or even 28 day quarantine for all overseas travellers from all countries, no exceptions.. (stopping border control with only China wouldn’t have been enough as it could have spread to other countries by January, undetected).

If they had done that, and combined it with rigorous testing and tracing for the very few cases within their own country..then, within a short period of time, and giving time to China to deal with their epidemic which they have done quickly, wouldn’t every country in the world have been free from Coronavirus completely or very very close to zero? It would have burned itself out. Then they could have re opened borders.

Yet international travel was deemed to be most important; even now it’s starting up again, even over the long term health of the world and all its citizens? That’s literally the way to re introduce infection back into countries. It also does show that so many countries really are not self sufficient, they rely on tourism hugely (and for people from other countries to fill the gaps in jobs too.) I hardly went on holiday, and apart from a school trip I only went abroad for the first time when I was 20, and then once after that, so I find it hard to understand. I just find the whole needing to travel abroad so much, and take airplanes so much, during an actual pandemic, really weird.
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There was absolutely plenty of time to react even with Chinese government denial. By late January it was obvious that this would be a significant problem needing prompt actions.

If a random idiot like me was able to view videos from the lockdown, the frenzy and chaos in Wuhan hospitals and how forcefully Chinese authorities, famous for doing everything to hide not being in total control, reacted, any government could.

One thing I noticed was people waiting with bated breath for the WHO to call it a pandemic. As if the time to get out is when the fire chief calls the building a total loss. Far too many people misunderstand that the WHO has no executive authority, only provides advice and coordination, they cannot force any actions anywhere. It was up to governments to act and all but a few failed.

The pandemic could have been contained nearly as well as SARS. Governments and public health authorities simply failed at the task.
 
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