lunarainbows
Senior Member (Voting Rights)
According to worldometers, Brazil had around 13,000 new cases on May 25. What is Brazil’s strategy - is it herd immunity?
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yess i'd be most interested to see that too! Also for just breathing & talking.Interesting. Though of course these are bacterial colonies, so may not represent how good a mask is at stopping viral particles. Still it does demonstrate the point rather well.
I wonder what the results would look like on repeating the exercise with a petri dish held to the side (ie where a cloth mask might vent out)?
I just cant fathom it. Even my carer who was very vigilant at the beginning said to me that I needed to stop being so frightened now.... She's still wearing a cloth mask in supermarket & a proper one in my home, & doing hand washing, but is just overall much less alert to possible touching of her own things & then touching something I might touch etc. Everyone I "meet" just seems much more relaxed about it in general. I just don't understand it, as far as I can see nothing whatever has changed in terms of infection risk. Just because we haven't got several hundred people dying anymore they think it's mostly over now. Is it me? Am I wrong to be being just as vigilant now as I was a month ago?Judging by the hordes of people milling around yesterday everyone thinks it is all over.
Surprised not to have heard anything about this (perhaps the Dominic Cummings thing has driven everything else off the UK news):
Sikora didn't seem to mention this bit:Sikora seems always seems to have something convenient to say for the establishment.
I cannot see that models are of any use. What will happen will depend entirely on how people behave, and that looks to be significantly more up in the air the last week. There may not be a second wave in the sense that we are still in the first wave and it will just flip upwards again. If airports open I suspect it will take off like a jump jet.
I wonder if Sikora stops to ask himself whether his tweets are helpful or not. Judging by the hordes of people milling around yesterday everyone thinks it is all over.
[my bold]Neira said:"There are many models that predict many probabilities such as a punctual regrowth or a major wave, but this last possibility is increasingly being ruled out. We are much better prepared in all areas'', said the Spanish doctor.
yess i'd be most interested to see that too! Also for just breathing & talking.
I just cant fathom it. Even my carer who was very vigilant at the beginning said to me that I needed to stop being so frightened now.... She's still wearing a cloth mask in supermarket & a proper one in my home, & doing hand washing, but is just overall much less alert to possible touching of her own things & then touching something I might touch etc. Everyone I "meet" just seems much more relaxed about it in general. I just don't understand it, as far as I can see nothing whatever has changed in terms of infection risk. Just because we haven't got several hundred people dying anymore they think it's mostly over now. Is it me? Am I wrong to be being just as vigilant now as I was a month ago?
Surprised not to have heard anything about this (perhaps the Dominic Cummings thing has driven everything else off the UK news):
I've been seeing far too many articles talking about a post-pandemic period, not just asking if but basically arguing it's over.precisely @lunarainbows I just cant quite fathom why people seem to think that its getting less risky by the week.
New Zealand too. No new cases for most days out of the past 10, and the couple that were identified were either new arrivals - so already in quarantine - or closely linked to a known case (e.g., same household).My region of Australia (Northern Territory) has just been officially declared free of SARS-CoV-19.
No community transmission for over a month, and no active cases.
Vietnam has also achieved elimination.
The fact that more and more people are ignoring the recommendations are showing up in the statistics nowHere's some data from Sweden to follow up on my earlier posts on whether loose advice/recommendations are more sustainable over time than stricter lockdown measures enforced by laws etc
https://www.sahlgrenska.se/nyheter/...laggningarna-okar-igen--alla-maste-ta-ansvar/Article said:In the past 1-2 weeks, the hospital admissions have increased again [...]
- We are seeing a new hump, which is most likely a direct effect of people's behavior in recent weeks. On behalf of the hospital, I really want to urge the public to take the recommendations of the Public Health Authority seriously. Keep a distance, don't hang out in crowded bars, keep your distance in shops and do not move about unnecessarily in the community. And use hand sanitizer and wash your hands frequently, he says.
He also wants to point out that the recommendations apply to everyone:
- The vast majority, 80 percent, of those admitted are below 80 years old. So this does not only apply to the most vulnerable individuals.
If this is validated and reliable, it could provide a breakthrough in monitoring outbreaks. Probably expensive but certainly less so than even periodic lockdowns.
Here in Germany so far everything stays low, regardless of relaxions.The fact that more and more people are ignoring the recommendations are showing up in the statistics nowIs this happening in other countries too?
The fact that more and more people are ignoring the recommendations are showing up in the statistics nowIs this happening in other countries too?
For example, here's an article from a hospital in Göteborg/Gothenburg (Sweden's second largest city):
Chief physician: "The hospitalisations are increasing again - everyone has to take responsibility"
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(The dotted line represents the "expected trend".)
https://www.sahlgrenska.se/nyheter/...laggningarna-okar-igen--alla-maste-ta-ansvar/
Here in Germany so far everything stays low, regardless of relaxions.
The states are now acting almost completely at their own will, but I guess no essential differences will be seen.
The spread of the virus is a riddle to me. Maybe in autumn we will see a second wave, and then countries having been hit harder may have an advantage?
(For a comparison, two weeks ago or so, Germany had 7.5 corona deaths per 100.000, and the US had 18.5, Sweden may have had more than 21, eastern EU countries may have been around 0.5 or so.)
There've been a few interviews here recently with some Swedish health official (can't recall the name) telling us that NZ is doing it all wrong.The fact that more and more people are ignoring the recommendations are showing up in the statistics nowIs this happening in other countries too?
For example, here's an article from a hospital in Göteborg/Gothenburg (Sweden's second largest city):
Chief physician: "The hospitalisations are increasing again - everyone has to take responsibility"
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national...pdates-from-nz-and-around-the-world-on-29-mayThere are no new cases of Covid-19 in New Zealand for the seventh day in a row, the Ministry of Health reports.
The total number of confirmed cases remains at 1154.
The combined total of confirmed and probable cases remains at 1504.
There are seven additional recovered cases meaning this total is now 1481. Only one case remains active.
There are no additional deaths to report.
There is no one in New Zealand receiving hospital-level care for Covid-19.
Yesterday, laboratories completed 4,162 tests, bringing the total number of tests completed to date to 275,852.
Updated May 29, 2020 1:03 PM
More at:Auckland University's senior lecturer in immunology Nikki Moreland said in a country like New Zealand, where the virus was not widespread, there were concerns about false positives which could cause problems.
To combat this, she would use a different test she had developed with colleagues to double check every positive result found by the Abbott test.
That test looks for different antibodies connected to the virus than the Abbott one - allowing a second check of the initial results for accuracy.
In the news today:The FT article on [excess] deaths suggests Sweden only marginally above average rate.
Screen print of graphs bow
DN Google Translate said:More dead in covid-19 than the statistics show
The number of deaths in covid-19 in Sweden is probably higher than the 4,220 that have now been registered. To date, there are another 1,000 deaths that are not included in the statistics but constitute so-called excess mortality.
https://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/fler-doda-i-covid-19-doljs-i-statistiken/Is it reasonable to believe that most of these 1,000 deaths were caused by covid-19?
- The mortality during the period is likely to reflect the covid pandemic, but we will not know for sure until afterwards what caused the deaths. It is reasonable to believe that they are covid-related, but whether there are people who have died directly in covid-19 or who had the infection but died of other causes we do not know.