Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

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Jonathan Edwards said:
Three-quarters of coronavirus deaths in Britain might have been avoided if the lockdown had begun a week earlier, modelling suggests.

Where does modelling come in to it.A quick shoofty at the worldometer makes it obvious that three quarters of deaths were avoidable. You just read along the line.
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I noticed same thing was said on "More or Less" [BBC Radio 4] Germany shut down when the had far fewer deaths, than the UK, and that's why the had far fewer deaths in total!

But the Germans didn't get the "benefit" i.e. since they shut down too early --- remember that!

Anyone got the estimates of the numbers infected 5% of total population % in London?
 
FMMM1 said:
Anyone got the estimates of the numbers infected 5% of total population % in London?
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Not quite sure what the question is?
If London rate is 17% and the total 5% then outside London will be somewhere around 3-3.5% I think.

This is quite interesting because it shows just how much spread is dependent on lifestyle in terms of proximity and behaviour. We know that the virus was seeded all over the UK by people coming back from skiing but in London the spread was five times greater.

Although I think the herd immunity idea is crazy it is possible that it is only quite a small proportion of the populace who behave in a way that spreads the virus with an R more than about 0.3 - i.e. enough not to peter out on its own.

Maybe the key to control will not be herd immunity but herd immunity within the small subpopulation of super spreader behavers. The sad thing is that it looks as if an important component of super spreader behaviour is being a healthcare or care worker simply because of being in contact with the primary super spreaders directly, or for care homes indirectly.

But very likely another major component of super spreader behaviour is using airports, so the chances of being able to safely travel abroad in the next year or so remain very small.
 
FMMM1 said:
I noticed same thing was said on "More or Less" [BBC Radio 4] Germany shut down when the had far fewer deaths, than the UK, and that's why the had far fewer deaths in total!

But the Germans didn't get the "benefit" i.e. since they shut down too early --- remember that!

Anyone got the estimates of the numbers infected 5% of total population % in London?
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Are you asking what these percentages were based on? 5% and 17% are based on a sample of people who they tested, but Matt Hancock hasn’t actually said what sample, how many people were tested, how they were chosen..I don’t think it’s been published anywhere... I guess we need to wait and see in the coming days where he got those figures from. 17% of London is approx 1.5 million. It seems high to me, but I guess London did get hit earlier than the rest of the country and still the govt refused to lockdown until it had gathered pace.
 
My region of Australia (Northern Territory) has just been officially declared free of SARS-CoV-19.

No community transmission for over a month, and no active cases.

Vietnam has also achieved elimination.

It can be done, and should be done. The longer authorities wait to bow to the inevitable, the more human & economic damage it will cause. The only choice we have about it is the price we are prepared to pay for not doing it.
 
An group of leading scientists is warning that a 1 June reopening of schools would be too early for pupils to return to classrooms safely.

The 'Independent Sage' committee chaired by the former chief scientific adviser Sir David King, has carried out new modelling showing that the risk to children would be halved if ministers delayed their planned school opening date by two weeks.

The committee says the later reopening date would allow for more time for an effective "test, trace and isolate" programme to be established.
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https://www.tes.com/news/coronavirus-1-june-too-soon-open-schools-say-top-scientists
 
Jonathan Edwards said:
If London rate is 17% and the total 5% then outside London will be somewhere around 3-3.5% I think.

This is quite interesting because it shows just how much spread is dependent on lifestyle in terms of proximity and behaviour. We know that the virus was seeded all over the UK by people coming back from skiing but in London the spread was five times greater.
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That also suggests that any reported infection figures are very sensitive to sampling strategies (as well as the accuracy of tests). I was thinking that they may be over counting because it would be harder to reach those who are doing the most to self isolate. But without a paper setting out the sampling strategy it is hard to tell.
 
New SAGE evidence has been made public today, including the SPI-M-O consensus view on the impact of interventions from February 3:
https://assets.publishing.service.g...us-view-impact-interventions-030220-sage4.pdf

They’ve also published the papers relating to Covid-19 in children and school closures.

All the SAGE evidence can be found here:
https://www.gov.uk/government/group...upporting-the-government-response-to-covid-19

To identify which papers have just been released you can use this table:
https://assets.publishing.service.g...ta/file/887080/sage-meeting-papers-220520.csv
 
I just read this quote from Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC),in an FT article

“We’ve seen evidence that the concerns it would go south in the southern hemisphere like flu [are coming true], and you’re seeing what’s happening in Brazil now,” Dr Redfield said. “And then when the southern hemisphere is over I suspect it will reground itself in the north.”

I would have thought the situation in Brazil is the same as everywhere, the big difference is they have a president who doesnt want to lockdown the country and on top of that they have large areas of high population density.

I get the impression from the quote above that there is a train of tought that this coronavirus is seasonal and it will diminish in the US for now.
I see a lot of references to 'second wave' coming from US news articles, does the US think they have dealt with the first wave ?
They are opening up for Memerial day this weekend, I wonder if we will see a spike in cases in a few weeks.
 
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has estimated that between 4 May and 17 May, there were 61,000 new COVID infections per week... this is during our lockdown! (Edit, so on average over 8,500 new infections per day)..



 
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BurnA said:
I just read this quote from Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC),in an FT article

“We’ve seen evidence that the concerns it would go south in the southern hemisphere like flu [are coming true], and you’re seeing what’s happening in Brazil now,” Dr Redfield said. “And then when the southern hemisphere is over I suspect it will reground itself in the north.”

I would have thought the situation in Brazil is the same as everywhere, the big difference is they have a president who doesnt want to lockdown the country and on top of that they have large areas of high population density.

I get the impression from the quote above that there is a train of tought that this coronavirus is seasonal and it will diminish in the US for now.
I see a lot of references to 'second wave' coming from US news articles, does the US think they have dealt with the first wave ?
They are opening up for Memerial day this weekend, I wonder if we will see a spike in cases in a few weeks.
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In my California small city in the past week, we've started a spike in cases which coincides with the recent relaxation of restrictions. Restaurants are not open as yet for indoor dining.

I think it is hard for most people to maintain that ambiguous state of mind of allowed more normal activities, but at a six-foot or more distance. And hispanics here are more affected per their population percentage, including almost all of the juvenile cases.

Public Health follows a CDC blueprint about re-opening certain businesses and how to do that. They look at the percent of cases/per 10k population and also the new case rate, as well as hospital/ICU beds.

If those limits are breached, an order to pull back on the re-opening will ensue.
 
This is the article I’ve been waiting for someone to write. I wanted to know why Sweden has been able to get away with herd immunity while in the U.K., there has been a public outcry, with many scientists, public, journalists etc openly questioning & forcing the govt to do several U turns - Although the U.K. govt has not openly said they are doing suppression yet, they are being scrutinised about it. But Sweden is not. I cannot judge on the articles accuracy although I am interested if any of the Swedish members of this forum had thoughts on this / would agree:

https://theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/22/sweden-u-turn-controversial-covid-19-strategy?

Why Sweden is unlikely to make a U-turn on its controversial Covid-19 strategy

“But despite the high number of deaths, about 70% of Swedes support their government’s approach. In fact, there has not been much public debate or organised opposition to the strategy. The deaths have indeed shocked many Swedes, especially the disproportionately high number of deaths among those over 70 in care homes and those from working-class, immigrant backgrounds. The debates, however, seem to be taking a more socioeconomic angle. In other words, the reasons for these deaths are being blamed on structural, economic, and social deficiencies – but not on the strategy itself.

.....
.....

....This lack of experience with handling national crises goes some way to explaining why there is a technocratic and dispassionate outlook to Covid-19, as opposed to a sense of urgency. It is also why the public health agency in Sweden seems to have few qualms about “herd immunity”. Whereas other countries see it as a dangerous national experiment, Swedish health officials regard it more as a type of medical prescription. It might not be 100% effective and some deaths might occur, as in any medical situation. But in the long run, it could work in mitigating the negative effects of the virus, without mass social disruption.

It is for this reason that the denial by the Swedish government and health officials that it is actually pursuing “herd immunity” seem so halfhearted, a rebuttal to critical foreign press rather than its citizens. For a foreigner living in Sweden like me, it is not entirely reassuring. How long Sweden will continue with this policy is difficult to ascertain. But as long as Covid-19 is seen in this light, and it looks as if it will, a U-turn seems unlikely.“
 
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Jonathan Edwards said:
Not quite sure what the question is?
If London rate is 17% and the total 5% then outside London will be somewhere around 3-3.5% I think.

This is quite interesting because it shows just how much spread is dependent on lifestyle in terms of proximity and behaviour. We know that the virus was seeded all over the UK by people coming back from skiing but in London the spread was five times greater.

Although I think the herd immunity idea is crazy it is possible that it is only quite a small proportion of the populace who behave in a way that spreads the virus with an R more than about 0.3 - i.e. enough not to peter out on its own.

Maybe the key to control will not be herd immunity but herd immunity within the small subpopulation of super spreader behavers. The sad thing is that it looks as if an important component of super spreader behaviour is being a healthcare or care worker simply because of being in contact with the primary super spreaders directly, or for care homes indirectly.

But very likely another major component of super spreader behaviour is using airports, so the chances of being able to safely travel abroad in the next year or so remain very small.
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Thank you for the very insightful answer.

I came across an interview on the TV (Newsnight?) regarding Germany. The key remaining problem areas are hospitals, and residential health care facilities; everyone going into/coming out of these facilities is tested. Seems hopeful at some level i.e. targeting the key remaining reservoir (health care system) suggests much of the rest is under control.
 
BurnA said:
I just read this quote from Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

(CDC),in an FT article

“We’ve seen evidence that the concerns it would go south in the southern hemisphere like flu [are coming true], and you’re seeing what’s happening in Brazil now,” Dr Redfield said. “And then when the southern hemisphere is over I suspect it will reground itself in the north.”

I would have thought the situation in Brazil is the same as everywhere, the big difference is they have a president who doesnt want to lockdown the country and on top of that they have large areas of high population density.

I get the impression from the quote above that there is a train of tought that this coronavirus is seasonal and it will diminish in the US for now.
I see a lot of references to 'second wave' coming from US news articles, does the US think they have dealt with the first wave ?
They are opening up for Memerial day this weekend, I wonder if we will see a spike in cases in a few weeks.
Click to expand...

This looks like c--p and seems to be based on a fundamental misunderstanding i.e. it is not flue --- as Jonathan Edwards pointed out weeks/months ago, a peculiarity of this virus is than in some households one member is infected and others do not get infected -- that would not happen for flue. I guess this is due to the fact that transmission is via droplets --- see extract below -- i.e. rather than smaller particles.

Makes you wonder if this guy is changing the message to suit the prevailing political agenda -- surely irresponsible.


Droplet transmission occurs when a person is in in close contact (within 1 m) with someone who has respiratory symptoms (e.g., coughing or ...
[https://www.who.int/news-room/comme...plications-for-ipc-precaution-recommendations]

Large virus-laden droplets from infected people’s coughs and sneezes fall to the ground within a metre or two. But much smaller droplets, less than 5 microns in diameter, can remain in the air for minutes to hours and travel further. [https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/24/coronavirus-detected-particles-air-pollution]
 
I've not found the 30mins necessary to listen to this so I have no idea if it's worthwhile or not.
In his first interview since being hospitalised with COVID-19, LSHTM Director and world-leading virologist Peter Piot gives a personal account of his experience with the novel coronavirus. He shares lessons learned from his work on Ebola and HIV, the role of survivors in the COVID-19 response, and his renewed mission for tackling the pandemic.
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https://anchor.fm/lshtm/episodes/S1...ot-me-Peter-Piots-battle-with-COVID-19-eec05a
 
Wits_End said:
I'm not sure whether this is the appropriate place for it, but didn't know where else to put it. If 20%+ of the UK population believe the virus is a hoax, then how can you ever persuade them to adopt the measures necessary to stop, or at least slow, its spread?
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You make it a notifiable disease like Ebola. Remember that Pauline McCafferty was at one point going to be arrested for faking her temperature.

Once the numbers are brought down I rather suspect Covid19 will be made a notifiable disease.
 
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