Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

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Wonko said:
Both Italy, and Spain to some extent, have the excuse that they got caught off guard, and overwhelmed, but what excuse do we have?

We knew it was coming, even to the extent of saying how many weeks behind various countries we were.
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Over the past few weeks, I have repeatedly recalled the Biblical parable of the Wise and Foolish Virgins: on hearing that the bridegroom was delayed, the bridesmaids went to sleep, only half having got their lamps ready beforehand - when he arrived, the other half had to go and buy oil for their lamps, and as a result arrived too late at the wedding feast. No prizes for guessing in which category the UK's coronavirus response falls :(
 
https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/05/1...n-days-enough-to-stop-the-spread-of-covid-19/

Is self-isolation for seven days enough to stop the spread of covid-19?

“Although there is variation in the recommendation across countries, the UK’s is of a considerably shorter duration in comparison. This is additionally of concern due to reports of fluctuation in symptoms. The evidence behind the shorter duration of self-isolation has not been made public. The shorter duration means that individuals may come out of self-isolation while still potentially infectious.

There is evidence that viral shedding can be prolonged, with the duration of viral shedding ranging from 8-37 days in a cohort of hospitalised patients in China. The median duration of viral shedding was 20 days in survivors and varied with disease severity. Another cohort of 56 patients with mild to moderate covid-19 reports viral shedding up to 42 days after onset of symptoms. Although viral shedding does not necessarily equate to infectiousness, we do not yet have clear evidence on how closely the presence of viral RNA relates to infectiousness, or indeed the average infectious period for those infected with covid-19, particularly in those with mild or asymptomatic disease. In the absence of clear evidence, it would seem foolhardy to dismiss the potential for ongoing infection risk, particularly in symptomatic individuals who are not repeatedly tested.”
 
I thought this was 'settled' weeks ago by a statement made by WHO.

That the reason for positive results weeks after people had apparently recovered was down to the body clearing inert pieces of viral RNA from the lungs, big enough pieces of viral RNA to give a positive result on a swab test but not 'live' virus.

Or did I misunderstand, or did they lie?
 
@lunarainbows, your post reminded me of this: Yesterday the Swedish Public Health Authority published new guidelines for when people who have had covid-19 "are no longer infectious".

FHM: Ny vägledning om smittfrihet efter covid-19
https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se.../ny-vagledning-om-smittfrihet-efter-covid-19/

The criteria are:
Google Translate said:
* Persons with confirmed covid-19 who remain isolated in the home can be assessed as infectious after at least two days of no fever and with general improvement, when at least seven days have passed since the illness started.

* The same time limits apply to staff in healthcare and care with suspected or confirmed covid-19, with the addition that they should always be tested in case of suspicion.

* Symptom-free persons should generally not be tested, but if it has nevertheless been done, they can be assessed as infection-free seven days after a positive test. Should they develop symptoms after the sampling, one must count from the day the illness started. If they have recently had symptoms compatible with covid-19, you can count from the day that illness started.

* In care homes for the elderly, as well as short-term care and environments with particularly sensitive individuals, with reference to the principle of precaution, the time limit should be at least 2 days of no fever and with stable improvement and 14 days after the illness started.

* For hospitalized people who have had a more severe illness, the criteria are at least 2 days of no fever and with stable clinical improvement and at least 14 days from the day the illness started, up to 21 days for the very sickest who also needed care in the intensive care unit.
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Google Translate said:
The national criteria for freedom of infection at covid-19 are drawn up by a working group consisting of representatives from the Swedish Society for Infectious Medicine, the Society for Clinical Microbiology, the Swedish Hygiene Medical Association, the Swedish Society for Infectious Diseases and the Public Health Authority. They will be updated as new knowledge of SARS-CoV-2 is added.
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In late January, when most Americans were hearing about the novel coronavirus for the first time, the Columbia epidemiologist W. Ian Lipkin was in Beijing, advising the Chinese government on its response. One of the world’s leading virus hunters, Lipkin has nearly four decades of experience in identifying, tracking, and developing diagnostics for emerging infectious diseases. He frequently travels to other countries to help them fight epidemics, as he did for China with SARS in 2003 and for Saudi Arabia with MERS in 2012. This past winter, he booked a flight to Beijing immediately upon learning from Chinese colleagues that the virus was spreading quickly.

“At that point, it’s a race against time,” he says, “because until you have a vaccine or treatment, containment is your only hope.”
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https://magazine.columbia.edu/article/how-stop-next-pandemic-it-starts
 
“At that point, it’s a race against time,” he says, “because until you have a vaccine or treatment, containment is your only hope.”

In the absence of a vaccine or treatment the only serious weapon we have against a new infectious disease is breaking the chain of transmission.

I am genuinely shocked at how resistant many people, including government leaders, are to this indisputable fact. This is not a new fact. It is one learned the hardest of ways over centuries, millennia even, by all societies. Yet for many it's as if none of that history ever happened.

All the more disturbing because breaking the chain of transmission is very effective.
 
mango said:
Here's some data from Sweden to follow up on my earlier posts on whether loose advice/recommendations are more sustainable over time than stricter lockdown measures enforced by laws etc
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Some more data:
Google Translate said:
Over the coming weekend, 300,000 people plan to break the government's guidelines on travel within Sweden. This is according to a survey from SIFO, commissioned by TV4 News.

The current guidelines state that you should not travel for more than two hours by car from your home.

13 percent of those surveyed, which is close to a million, say they will travel during Christ's Ascension weekend, but that they will abide by the two-hour rule.
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Source: https://omni.se/over-en-kvarts-miljon-tanker-bryta-reserekommendation/a/0n2mjA
 
In Germany (in most areas) on April 20th most shops have been allowed to reopen, a bit later it was all of them. On April 27th masks have become mandatory in shops and busses asf. It does not seem that the relaxations have had any significant negative impact.

daily detected cases
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daily reported deaths
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(On 22th March a kind of lockdown has been implemented, rather a smart one,
but testing and tracing was done early. Since 8th March or so big events used to be cancelled.)

This makes me wonder if not the beginning of the spread in "a population" is key, but what could be an expanation???


edit: I copied the graphs, for some reason they tend to vanish. I hope this time they will stay. Can´t delete the "
URL]
IMG" though. Graphs are from wiki https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19-Pandemie_in_Deutschland
 
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Someone told me earlier today that today was the first day in which no new cases were registered in London. Can anyone confirm this? It would certainly be a step in the right direction if true.
 
Interestingly South Africa stands out in FT figures as having no excess deaths.

This may be due to reporting, but given 5hat they have community teams in place dealing with HIV and TB , it perhaps demonstrates the effectiveness of old school boots on ground.
Perhaps something for UK to look into ?
 
Wits_End said:
Someone told me earlier today that today was the first day in which no new cases were registered in London. Can anyone confirm this? It would certainly be a step in the right direction if true.
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Yeah they said that, but when I checked Sutton and Croydon - there were still a handful of cases confirmed there.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...cases-are-in-your-area-updated-daily-11956258

Croydon: 19th May - 5
20th May -2

Sutton:
19th May -1
20th May- 1
(At it’s peak had 64 confirmed new cases, but that was quite an anomaly with a lot days seeing closer to 20-40 cases)

Barking and Dagenham
20th May - 1

I haven’t checked others but there probably are cases in the other London Local authorities as well. But definitely numbers have come down a lot.

But there are issues with tests - some people only getting results 1-2 weeks later, Deloitte centralised testing which has been losing tests. So “todays” figure may well have a lag time and may not reflect today.

https://www.theguardian.com/society...rrors-at-uk-drive-in-coronavirus-test-centres

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...larm-over-privately-run-test-centre-in-surrey


There is also the point that cases in the community may not be getting picked up, as the number of actual people tested stands the same for weeks now at 60,000-70,000, despite saying they are “ramping up” number of tests.

Edit: however the coronavirus has now spread elsewhere in the country with the north east being very hard hit. which is why I think the “cordon sanitaire” should have been brought in long before now to restrict movement to other parts of the country.
 
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Three-quarters of coronavirus deaths in Britain might have been avoided if the lockdown had begun a week earlier, modelling suggests.

Researchers said that if the UK had imposed the measures seven days earlier its death toll now would be on a par with the 8,000 in Germany.

They also said it would have been possible to have a shorter and less economically damaging lockdown.

Britain introduced its lockdown measures on March 23, when 359 deaths had been reported. Germany took such steps on the same day, but had reported only 86 fatalities at that time.
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Rest of article behind paywall/sign up, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...have-prevented-three-quarters-uk-coronavirus/
 
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