Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

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Invisible Woman said:
Oh. Well, that's okay then. :(
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My thought exactly Invisible!

Here there is a term going around: "boomer remover".
But in fact, it is the war time generation which is really being decimated, folks born in the 1920s. What is happening here in the old age homes is a real humanitarian crises. Workers have abandoned these homes, the old are starving, lying in their doo doo, unkempt, unwashed, dead bodies. It is abominable that this is happening. That generation really built Quebec. The design of the old age homes is at fault, as there are 2 or 4 to a room with shared bathroom. In most of these places they only separated the Covid person from their neighbour with a plastic curtain! They should have moved the Covid patients to separate facilities but they didn't. Today I heard a doctor again from the local Jewish General Hospital say that when they brought in these older people it was awful to look at: dehydrated, hungry, dirty. So, the hospital puts in an IV for electrolytes and does what the old age homes should have done. Today it is hard to see what tomorrow will bring.
 
lunarainbows said:
This is very worrying. If there are no cases in some areas of Quebec surely the best thing to do would be to protect those areas, keep it so that no cases exist there, and try to reduce the cases that exist in the rest of the population. Not just allow people to be exposed. Children may not be as badly affected but they live with adults and elderly people. Just when I thought herd immunity was maybe, maybe..going away from the UK (not sure on that though yet), it’s being picked up somewhere else :(
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Here is an article from La Presse that summarises Legault's thoughts and plans. Basically, he wants the herd immunity to take place over the summer and the economy to open up step by step. How many people are going to be sacrificed I have to ask.
https://www.lapresse.ca/covid-19/202004/23/01-5270603-un-ete-pour-simmuniser.php

Already the radio stations are starting to condition folks that coming out of confinement step by step is about to take place. I just heard one psychologist on Radio Canada saying: my paraphrase: just invite a couple of guests, and you will see it's all OK, then your fear will go down, and then you can invite a few more, and you will see that it's ok.

I really can't believe this, as Quebec has not reached the peak. I guess the thinking is that since most of the cases are the elderly, then it's ok to start going back to a more regular life.

I think Legault is really worried about the economy. Next week he will announce the steps of de-confinement.
 
Indoor transmission of SARS-CoV-2

"Results: Three hundred and eighteen outbreaks with three or more cases were identified, involving 1245 confirmed cases in 120 prefectural cities. We divided the venues in which the outbreaks occurred into six categories: homes, transport, food, entertainment, shopping, and miscellaneous.

Among the identified outbreaks, 53.8% involved three cases, 26.4% involved four cases, and only 1.6% involved ten or more cases.

Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases.

Conclusion: All identified outbreaks of three or more cases occurred in an indoor environment, which confirms that sharing indoor space is a major SARS-CoV-2 infection risk."
 
Leila said:
Indoor transmission of SARS-CoV-2

"Results: Three hundred and eighteen outbreaks with three or more cases were identified, involving 1245 confirmed cases in 120 prefectural cities. We divided the venues in which the outbreaks occurred into six categories: homes, transport, food, entertainment, shopping, and miscellaneous.

Among the identified outbreaks, 53.8% involved three cases, 26.4% involved four cases, and only 1.6% involved ten or more cases.

Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases.

Conclusion: All identified outbreaks of three or more cases occurred in an indoor environment, which confirms that sharing indoor space is a major SARS-CoV-2 infection risk."
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And this is also why having quarantine facilities away from home is also important.







But in the UK, and most other countries, home isolation is the first (or only) resort.

Edit: actually, other than China, does anyone know which other countries actually did have isolation facilities outside of the home (for “milder” cases)?
 
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It looks like Dubai are relaxing their lockdown:

https://www.ft.com/content/cc381989-fa81-4929-8319-1b4c25f4a48c

The UAE don’t seem to be providing breakdown figures for each area but from looking at overall UAE figures from worldometers, there are worryingly; still increasing levels of new cases every days. I don’t know how much this relates to Dubai. But if Dubai is following the same pattern, I don’t know why they are re opening so soon.

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lunarainbows said:
Edit: actually, other than China, does anyone know which other countries actually did have isolation facilities outside of the home (for “milder” cases)?
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Leila said:
The idea of taking people away from their families, probably against their will, gives me a very eerie feeling though.
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The UK has always had isolation facilities away from home for people with notifiable infectious disease - who are barrier nursed irrespective of whether or not they are themselves critically ill. Such facilities have been used for people suspected of having things like Ebola or Lassa.

Thing people away from home by legal force is also a routine part of the UK system, although it is rarely necessary to use it. When people are taken away from home for the public good rather than their own it is usually a completely non-traumatic business. The situation at present is different just because nobody else can step in and look after children or other dependents.

The only difference for Covid19 is that a decision was made that it was not serious enough to make use of isolation facilities. And probably it was then thought that there were not enough isolation rooms. But all the empty hotels at airports would be ideal.
 
This has the word “non political” in the tagline, and mentions how they are both politically opposite, but the article is not actually “political”.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/australia/new-zealand-coronavirus.html


Vanquish the Virus? Australia and New Zealand Aim to Show the Way
The two countries, led by ideological opposites, are converging on an extraordinary goal: eliminating the virus. Their nonpolitical approach is restoring trust in democracy.

“It all started with scientists. In Australia, as soon as China released the genetic code for the coronavirus in early January, pathologists in public health laboratories started sharing plans for tests. In every state and territory, they jumped ahead of politicians.

.....

In New Zealand, public health experts pushed for an even bolder move.

Dr. Michael Baker, a physician and professor at the University of Otago in Wellington, became a prominent voice outside the government pushing for elimination of the virus, not just its suppression.

In Australia, officials are mostly discussing elimination in private, as a potential side effect of a strategy they still describe as suppression. Dr. Brendan Murphy, Australia’s chief medical officer, told a New Zealand parliamentary committee last week that elimination would be a “nirvana” scenario — an achievement that would be tough to maintain without indefinite bans on international travel or 14-day quarantines until a vaccine arrives.

.....

Ms. Ardern and Mr. Morrison have already discussed reopening travel between the two countries, and some scientists wonder if eliminating the virus with good management might rebuild some faith not just in democracy, but also in the value of expertise.

“It does feel like we’re pulling together and pulling in the same direction at the moment,” said Dr. Mackay, the immunologist at the University of Queensland. “I hope we can maintain that.””
 
List of those attending a March SAGE meeting leaked to the Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-scientific-group-advising-uk-government-sage

No Wessely, but both the behavioural experts (Brooke Rogers and James Rubin) were KCL co-authors of his.

Cummings was a surprising addition, along with Ben Warner from Vote Leave. Article on this here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-scientific-group-advising-uk-government-sage
_______________________

Moderation note:
This post has been allowed due to the relevance it has to the question of Wessely's influence on UK government policy. However, please bear in mind when considering possible replies that S4ME is not a general news forum. Political discussion unrelated to ME, especially detailed political discussion relevant to a single nation, is outside our scope.
 
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FMMM1 said:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...missing-deaths.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur


The association between NO2 (or pollution in general) and corona seems to hold, in some sense:


As per @Esther12 I think this is correlation rather than causation. Number of cases (transmission rate) of coronavirus is dependent on density of the population e.g. Singapore migrant workers housed in dormitories.

NO2 levels are primarily due to motor vehicle emissions; therefore, NO2 levels are correlated to population density. However, the data you present does not appear to show that the number of cases of coronavirus is dependent on NO2 levels.

Most likely NO2 levels are correlated to the number of cases of coronavirus i.e. not caused.

Google something like "correlated" and "caused" --- should give you a better explanation!
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Now also linked to incineration and EfW plants. It's the major emission along with particulates which I think may be more of an issue. In Asia/ developing countries emissions abatement varies enormously, and adds to overall pollutant levels.
 
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https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/immunity-passports-in-the-context-of-covid-19

“Immunity passports" in the context of COVID-19
Scientific Brief, 24 April 2020

“Some governments have suggested that the detection of antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, could serve as the basis for an “immunity passport” or “risk-free certificate” that would enable individuals to travel or to return to work assuming that they are protected against re-infection. There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection.”
 
Amw66 said:
Now also linked to incineration and EfW plants. It's the major emission along with particulates which I think may be more of an issue. In Asia/ developing countries emissions abatement varies enormously, and adds to overall pollutant levels.
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I think all of these suggestions of a link to pollutants may be difficult to untangle. If I understand it directly you need a natural experiment to untangle the issue.

As per a previous post, coronavirus transmission rates are linked to population density.

Currently the UK Government is looking at a (bluetooth) mobile phone app which picks up nearby phones. You use the data from an infected persons phone to identify their contacts and then do tracing. If you look at data for the number of phones which a phone is likely to contact in area x and compare it to the incidence of coronavirus then I guess that will show higher number of hits for your phone indicates an area with higher rates of coronavirus (population density!). However, your phone doesn't cause coronavirus infections. So assuming that two related things are causal may not be correct.

I live in Belfast (Northern Ireland) and the levels of air pollution exceed recommended levels. Also, the main airport is right in the city centre, causing considerable noise -- there's a basically unused airport about 17 miles away (in the country). Transport is say 35% of carbon emissions and the daily commute has basically stopped reducing carbon emissions and air pollution. So if countries are serious about reducing carbon emissions/improving air quality in cities --- then don't re-instate the daily commute.

In the current coronavirus crisis, don't needlessly re-instate the daily commute.

I consider myself to be relatively interested in the environment.
 
Letter in this week’s Economist from one of @dave30th ’s colleagues at Berkeley School of Public Health on prevention of future viruses spreading from animals:
Malcolm Potts said:
I read your article on the trade in African bush meat (“A crocodile hunter’s tears”, March 21st). hiv may have been transmitted from chimpanzees to people as a result of bush meat. The sars epidemic probably jumped from an animal to people in a shop selling traditional Chinese medicines in Guangdong province. These shops often have cages with live animals, such as civet cats and ant-eating pangolins. A million pangolins may have been exported from Africa to China in the past decade, and the pangolin is a possible origin of covid-19.

The Chinese government has closed traditional-medicine shops in Wuhan and elsewhere. They did the same after sars, but then allowed them to reopen as the number of cases fell. We need an international effort to abolish all trade in exotic mammals and to push back in every way possible against the bush-meat market. Chinese traditional-medicine shops and bush meat expose all of us to lethal animal viruses capable of killing millions, destroying the world economy and threatening the extinction of some species. It needs only a tiny step to stop pandemics before they start.

I was once taken to an African restaurant in Gabon and given roast civet cat and fricassee of pangolin, and yes, you are expected to eat the scales.

malcolm potts
School of Public Health
University of California, Berkeley
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https://www.economist.com/letters/2020/04/23/letters-to-the-editor
 
Esther12 said:
List of those attending a March SAGE meeting leaked to the Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-scientific-group-advising-uk-government-sage
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One of the things that struck me about the experts on the group is how many of them have there expertise in influenza. This seems to include the virus people as well as the modellers. I've not seen anyone who has studied corona viruses in detail - one of the things I've noticed in TWiV on the episodes I've listened to is many exerts specialize in one particular type of virus - although they understand others.

I'm wondering if this bias towards influenza experts will have had a huge effect on the advice given. I think one of the early criticisms of the UK approach was that it was geared towards an influenza outbreak rather than what is happening.
 
Over a month ago, Patrick Vallance (chief scientific adviser), said it would be a “good outcome” if we would keep to below 20,000 deaths.

Today deaths in the U.K. (hospital deaths), passed 20,000. The BBC and Vallance are calling it a tragic “milestone”. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-52424413?

The BBC is also attempting to put a positive spin on this - we have apparently passed the peak of deaths without the health service being overwhelmed. However they do not include the fact pretty much all other appointments, surgeries and even cancer treatments were cancelled And that is why we have capacity, or the fact the U.K. has one of the highest “excess deaths”, https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-englands-excess-deaths-among-the-highest-in-europe-11977394

This 20,000 figure also does not include the care home or community deaths. The FT has estimated a much higher figure (earlier in the thread).

Edited to add links.
 
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Adrian said:
Admissions seem to be going down (I wonder if that is because the most vulnerable are isolating better of if it reflects what is happening)
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There is something a bit disturbing about that graph. The cases going to intensive acare are going down much more sharply than the number of reported cases AND the number of deaths. There a lots of unknowns but one possible explanation is that fewer patients going in to hospital are being offered intensive care. That may indicate a better judgment on who needs it but then why is the death rate not falling? The more troubling possibility is that fewer are getting in to intensive care because there are not many beds left.

The twitter poster seems a bit gung ho in a way that even the government advisors seem to have stopped being.
 
30 minute interview with Prof Ferguson here:

https://unherd.com/thepost/imperials-prof-neil-ferguson-responds-to-the-swedish-critique/

He was saying we should try to emulate South Korea. Said that their model assumed people would not follow guidance as much as they have. Found it quite difficult to judge his thinking as the interviewer seemed a bit rubbish so Feguson inevitably seemed reasonable in comparison.

This is the website's summary:

Today we heard from the other side when Freddie Sayers spoke to Prof Ferguson to get his response to the Swedish critique and much else. He said that:

  • The majority of epidemiologists agree with his position.
  • Sweden is still seeing day-on-day increases in death and infection rates, whereas the UK’s has fallen.
  • Maintains that UK infection-fatality rate is 0.8-0.9%.
  • No allowance was made in the original model for avoidable deaths due to lack of treatment for other conditions.
  • The lockdown strategy has been effective, but it it is not sustainable in the long-run.
  • Lockdown has had a significant mental health and social impact on mortality in terms of not just isolating people, but in cancelled treatments.
  • He is surprised by how much adherence to these measures has taken place – higher than he had assumed in his models.
  • The UK should employ the South Korean model.
  • Shielding the elderly and re-opening the country is idealistic and has not occurred anywhere in the world.
  • If this strategy was attempted, there will still be over 100k deaths.
  • Health service capacity is a good guide to lifting restrictions — and capacity is there.
  • There will have to be social distancing until we have a vaccine — we won’t be normal society until then.
  • Politicians make the decisions, not SAGE.
  • Dominic Cummings observed, but did not get involved in decision-making at SAGE.
  • New model expected out in days.
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