Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

[spinoza577]

2. Prince Charles aged 77 tested positive and apparently (thank God) very healthy while most old Covid19 patients faced intensive care and death.

I don´t think that this is true.

I think 10% of old people needed care (only 10%), and 4% ICU. Numbers from two weeks ago, or so and if I remembe rrightly.

Than still the additional question about underdetermination, so the percentage might be lower or much lower. (And then again, the question about the unusual mild season for acute respiratory diseases this year before corona.)

Probably the prince shows no special signs of blue blood.

 

[Adrian]

. They suggest an army of contact tracers. That makes sense These need to be organised locally so that the contact status of every citizen, district and town is considered.

One of the things I thought was interesting in this article by Anthony Costello was the suggestion that symptom tracking would be sufficient within a test and track program rather then requiring the test kits that we don't seem able to have. I would have thought that would depend on the percentage of people who were asymptomatic or with minor levels of symptoms that don't get reported.
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...herd-immunity-community-surveillance-covid-19

 

[Jonathan Edwards]

All of these sorts of things remind me how little I'm really confident of!

I think there I one thing we can be confident of, that David Hockney's analysis of the current situation is right.

'Only food and love matter, in that order.'

 

[Jonathan Edwards]

One of the things I thought was interesting in this article by Anthony Costello was the suggestion that symptom tracking would be sufficient within a test and track program rather then requiring the test kits that we don't seem able to have. I would have thought that would depend on the percentage of people who were asymptomatic or with minor levels of symptoms that don't get reported.
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...herd-immunity-community-surveillance-covid-19

You can handle that reasonably well by assuming primary contacts are infected whether or not they have symptoms and get them isolated immediately. Control of TB by contact tracing is done with the vast majority of people infected asymptomatic at the time of tracing. Moreover, the tests are not that great and in the past were even worse. People have been doing things this way for a century. The time parameter are different for TB but the principle is the same.

 

[Adrian]

I remember who Powis is. He was in the UCL department of medicine based at the Royal Free. He was sufficiently outstanding that I never heard of him. He seems to have gone into administration early. He is not an epidemiologist. Costello makes absolute sense on all of this He knows the field and knows the dynamics. Like me he is retired so he does not have to say what suits.

Basically that sentence from Powis is non-sequitur.

I wonder if we have an issue because too many of the scientists who get the governments ear are those who are good at the politics and go into administration rather than those who are good scientists (who want to spend there time doing the research).

 

[Jonathan Edwards]

The real problem comes when you have open schools and football matches - where you may have a thousand contacts. At my daughter's school everyone had to be tested and something around 50 infected cases were found stemming from one original case. So it is still doable for schools. For international football matches I don't know. God knows why the experts said they were not the problem.

 

[Barry]

I wonder if we have an issue because too many of the scientists who get the governments ear are those who are good at the politics

Yes, well ... we know all about that don't we!

 

[Barry]

God knows why the experts said they were not the problem.

Presumably the choice of experts.

 

[Adrian]

This BMJ piece from 2nd April quotes from it, and talks about data from China which could indicate asymptomatic cases are much more common than had been thought: https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375

Judging by a tweet from Costello there may be issues with this report

 

[FMMM1]

Think I've found it (for ICU cases)
View attachment 10422

The increase in persons hospitalized in ICU due to COVID-19 also seems to be slowing down in a number of European countries as the Belgian graph below shows.
View attachment 10421

The death toll also seems to be plateauing
View attachment 10420

So I'm hoping that some countries are close to reaching their peak and that the number of new cases and deaths will be downhill from there.

This may sound inappropriate but is the total number of ICU beds in Italy 4000? The reason I'm asking is that if the total number is 4000 - then that would explain the peak at 4000.

There aren't many ICU beds in the UK so saturation point (100% occupancy) would occur quickly.

I live in the UK!

 

[Sly Saint]

this is crazy
Up to 4,000 inmates to be temporarily released in England and Wales
https://www.theguardian.com/society...-be-temporarily-released-in-england-and-wales

they are releasing them if they aren't showing symptoms without testing them.

Then on the other hand people are being prosecuted and given jail sentences for breaking the CV lock-down regs.

 

[Adrian]

On the privacy aspect I did see a cryptographer comment recently about using privacy preserving crypto techniques to help hide keep data private. I will look to see if I can see anything on this.

If anyone is interested in proximity tracing that preserves privacy then there is a report out by a number of cryptographers on how this could be done. I've not read it but the people involved are good.
https://github.com/DP-3T/documents/blob/master/DP3T - Data Protection and Security.pdf

 

[large donner]

According to Prof Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy’s minister of health, the country’s mortality rate is far higher due to demographics - the nation has the second oldest population worldwide - and the manner in which hospitals record deaths

But Prof Ricciardi added that Italy’s death rate may also appear high because of how doctors record fatalities.

“The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.

On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...se/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/

 

[Cheshire]

Sweden prepares for possible tighter coronavirus measures as death toll climbs

Country has taken soft approach and its death rate is higher than its Nordic neighbours’

Sweden’s government is drawing up new legislation to allow it to take “extraordinary steps” to combat Covid-19, local media have reported, amid concern that its relatively soft approach may be leading to a higher death rate than in other Nordic countries.

Denmark and Norway are among the many countries to have imposed tough lockdowns, closing borders and shutting schools, and Finland has isolated its main urban area around Helsinki. But Swedes are still able to shop, go to restaurants, get a haircut and send children under 16 to class.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ten-coronavirus-measures-as-death-toll-climbs

 

[Esther12]

Yep, this is happening where I am now as well. It's absolutely crazy,not only they have not adhered social distancing in jail but we're stuck at home while criminals be looking for food, housing etc. they might even appear our doorsteps. This is surely the last thing we need.

But if the prisons really aren't able to take actions that will limit the spread of the virus, keeping people in prisons for more minor problems could make it even more difficult for prison staff (many of whom are self-isolating) to manage the situation, and lead to a punishment that far outweighs their crimes.

I don't know the details, but it could be that this is the best thing to do.

 

[spinoza577]

This may sound inappropriate but is the total number of ICU beds in Italy 4000? The reason I'm asking is that if the total number is 4000 - then that would explain the peak at 4000.

There aren't many ICU beds in the UK so saturation point (100% occupancy) would occur quickly.

I live in the UK!

I mean remembering that it was 5.000 (for 60.000.000 people), might be wrong.

In comparision Germany had regularly 20.000 or 24.000 (for 80.000.000 people), can´t remember exactly.

Sweden has 523 (for 10.000.000 people), as I heard on radio.

 

[Mij]

They have released over 1000 prisoners in this province, low risk and near the end of their sentences.

 

[JemPD]

I notice that those convicted of violent/sex offences will be ineligible but that means that plenty of people convicted of eg burglary/theft will be let out early - repeated burgraly will land you 5yrs inside, theft 7.

I'm not sure whether this is the right thing to do or not, because I don't have all the information, it may be the least bad option all things considered, but I certainly don't relish people in prison from my neighbourhood being let out early, simply because I am very nervous of the social unrest & if we start getting shortages etc. People who are prepared to break in/steal to get what they want will continue to do so.

 

[lunarainbows]

It looks like the pressure from scientists and others is getting through. With the UK, rather than doing the things they need to do from the start, they need to be pushed and pushed into doing the right thing by others outside the govt/scientific advisers. But at least they’re finally getting there?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52172035

“Also on the BBC's Andrew Marr show, Prof Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London said he could not predict when the lockdown would be lifted.

He said there was "no point" in releasing the lockdown "at a point where case numbers are still high and will resurge even faster than we have seen before."

Prof Ferguson added: "We want case numbers to get to a low point where we can start substituting other measures for the most intrusive and economically costly aspects of the current lockdown.

"Almost certainly those additional measures will involve massively ramped-up testing, going back to trying to identify contacts of cases and stopping chains of transmission.

"That can only feasibly be done when we have many fewer cases per day than we have at the moment."”

 

[FMMM1]

I mean remembering that it was 5.000 (for 60.000.000 people), might be wrong.

In comparision Germany had regularly 20.000 or 24.000 (for 80.000.000 people), can´t remember exactly.

Sweden has 523 (for 10.000.000 people), as I heard on radio.

@Jonathan Edwards anyone know if the UK can ship people needing ICU to Germany - if the Germans have capacity of course.