Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

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A caution about assuming mortality this early - many of the articles I read on the Diamond Princess were meant to show lower mortality than expected, but I have sadly noticed that since I read those articles there have been 4 additional deaths (from 7 to 11) and there are still critically ill patients almost a month later.

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-outbreak-diamond-princess-cruise-ship-death-rate

I just noticed this on the world meters site that everyone is surely reading, so it may have happened even weeks after many articles like this were written.
 
Is there some reason why a lot of the graphs show only the positive results and don't show the negatives or total number of tests done?

Here's one website that breaks down test results for the US - it has both positive and negative results:

https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily/
https://covidtracking.com/data

Our local paper's website has a page for Oregon ("Coronavirus at a glance") and it has always shown both positive and negative results:

https://projects.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/

Just wondering.
 
Labs are used to getting large numbers of specimens, I don't see why there should be contamination to give false positives. Handling these are not different from any others.

Scotland has been testing medical personnel for over a fortnight. My daughter drove up in her car to one of the drive thru stations, was swabbed thru the window by a technician in protective gear and then drove away. Next day she was back at work.

The problem with false positives and negatives comes from the nature of the test, not the tester. The new antibody tests are like a pregnancy test stick, you get a line for IgM which shows a current infection, a line for IgG which shows you have had the virus or a line which is the control and tells you if the test worked.

It is based on the cartridges testing for RSV which have been used successfully for years. Usually such a test would be tested for accuracy, how many false positives how many false negatives and so on but everything is being done in a rush. That is where any problems will come from.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/31/testing-kits-heading-uk-contaminated-coronavirus-12481933/

The report claims that Eurofins has warned laboratories in the UK that a delivery of parts referred to as ‘probes and primers’ had been contaminated. Eurofins said that the issue can be resolved by ‘proper cleaning’ but admitted the discovery would result in a delay. A drive through coronavirus testing station has been set up at Chessington World of Adventures (Reuters) Health Secretary Matt Hancock has revealed the Government has ordered 3.5 million test kits (PA) A spokesperson for Eurofins told the Telegraph: ‘In rare occasions, delays in some orders may occur if based on Eurofins Genomics stringent quality and environmental control procedures, manufacturing of a product may not meet the quality or purity criteria set by Eurofins Genomics. ‘We are aware that contaminations of the nature you mentioned have been observed by several primers and probes manufacturers around the world after they produced SARS-COV2 positive controls.


Read more: https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/31/test...ontaminated-coronavirus-12481933/?ito=cbshare

Twitter: https://twitter.com/MetroUK | Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MetroUK/
 
Editorial in the NZ Medical Journal outlining how NZ's response to covid-19 started with dusting off the pandemic influenza plan - essentially a mitigation strategy since nobody believes influenza can be eliminated - before turning comparatively quickly to an elimination strategy when it became clear that the new corona virus was sufficiently different from influenza to make elimination a realistic, albeit difficult to achieve, possibility.

The authors then discuss what's needed to achieve elimination, border control, quarantine, physical distancing, hand washing, etc. etc. - nothing surprising in there.

Finally, while our government tells us that there is no plan B - it's elimination or elimination or elimination - the authors briefly reflect on the options should plan A fail. "Safe haven" sounds kind of nice but I really, really prefer the elimination approach and have the whole country become a "safe haven".
What to do if the elimination strategy fails?

Success with the elimination strategy is far from certain in New Zealand. In the meantime, the country will need to keep accelerating its preparations for a potential shift to the suppression or the mitigation strategy. These preparations could vastly reduce the mortality burden of vulnerable populations (particularly older people and those with chronic conditions23). In particular, there could be a ‘safe haven’ programme to protect such populations in their own homes, institutions and communities. These could be rolled out by city, region and nationally, based on the spread of the pandemic within the country.
https://www.nzma.org.nz/journal-art...pandemic-and-what-is-required-to-make-it-work
 
Further on lockdown effectiveness, unsurprisingly Google is keeping track of it. You can download a pdf country report which gives whole country figures as well as regional breakdowns of how much people frequent certain places (work, shops, parks, home, etc) before and after lockdowns.

Though I don't understand how the figures add up. For NZ the 5 locations outside the home all drop by 54-91% but home only increases by 22%. Where are all the people if they're neither not at home nor at home? :confused: I'm sure there's a sensible explanation but it escapes me.

https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
 
Though I don't understand how the figures add up. For NZ the 5 locations outside the home all drop by 54-91% but home only increases by 22%. Where are all the people if they're neither not at home nor at home? :confused: I'm sure there's a sensible explanation but it escapes me.
I haven't read the link yet, but if it's a percentage drop, then perhaps somewhere like the Auckland CBD is mostly deserted compared to what it was, so the percentage decrease could be large.

Whereas for homes, before the lockdown, people who work were probably at home sleeping and watching Netflix and cooking meals for a significant part of their day, and people who are retired were perhaps, on average already spending a lot of time at home, and many stay-at-home parents with children under 5 were too. and unemployed people, and people who already worked from home. And after lockdown, you still have quite a lot of the population out working in the supermarkets and in freight and in the hospitals. So the increase, in terms of hours, isn't such a big percentage. ?
 
The authors then discuss what's needed to achieve elimination, border control, quarantine, physical distancing, hand washing, etc. etc. - nothing surprising in there.

Finally, while our government tells us that there is no plan B - it's elimination or elimination or elimination - the authors briefly reflect on the options should plan A fail. "Safe haven" sounds kind of nice but I really, really prefer the elimination approach and have the whole country become a "safe haven".

It looks like Australia is choosing the same approach.
 
Do we have any references to the earliest credible warnings, and subsequent timeline of further credible warnings, that were given to the government and their advisers?
 
Do we have any references to the earliest credible warnings, and subsequent timeline of further credible warnings, that were given to the government and their advisers?

ETA: Actually I realise the link in Jonathan's post is very pertinent:
Costello says it as it is, again;

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...herd-immunity-community-surveillance-covid-19

It is not too late but the UK government advisors appear to be deaf to the advice of someone highly qualified who has common sense..

He seems to confirm that the government moved to phase 2 and suppression without contact tracing because right from the start they realised they did not have the testing capability to make contact tracing work.
 
Staff on an oncology ward or neonatal staff or whatever may not need the all the protective gear, freeing it for frontline emergency staff or those treating covd patients if they know their patients are clear coming into the ward. From my relative's experience they are testing patients before allowing them to be transferred to the specialist ward.

Staff in Oncology or Haematology are the ones who often use protective stuff as they have immune compromised patients. If Covid got into the Haematology ward I would have thought it could be disastrous.
 
NHS developing app to trace close contacts of coronavirus carriers

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...-trace-close-contacts-of-coronavirus-carriers

This is the type of thing they need to be doing but if they don't couple it with a wider test program it may be pointless. How can they identify coronavirus carriers if they are doing such limited testing.

On the privacy aspect I did see a cryptographer comment recently about using privacy preserving crypto techniques to help hide keep data private. I will look to see if I can see anything on this.
 
A man who boasted that he spent two hours walking through his local hospital to see how bad things were for himself has been jailed for three months.
https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/03/man-jailed-visiting-hospital-no-good-reason-facebook-boasts-12503535/
I wonder if the police will investigate the psychiatrist who told the BBC that he didn’t need to self-isolate when his wife had confirmed Covid-19 – the one that the BBC had to prevent coming to their studios, against his wishes.

I wonder if he was still seeing patients during that time.

Do we know if he has contracted Covid-19?

Also, do we know when and where Dr Gerada was tested? My recollection is that she said she picked it up in NY. Do we know if she had symptoms or was tested in NY? If so, did she travel back to the UK with confirmed or suspected Covid-19?

[Edited to add: Just found some answers in this article: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...-Gerada-describes-experience-coronavirus.html She didn’t get symptoms until she returned from US, and she was tested in the UK.

Interestingly, she writes: “I rang my husband, Simon, he came home from work and we kept a safe distance from each other. He slept in the spare room, I put all my crockery in the dishwasher and we didn't share towels. So far he hasn't been ill, though he has stayed in the house. A neighbour has been walking our dog.”

This seems to contradict what Nick Robinson said on the Today Programme – ie that SW wanted to come to the studios – and what SW said himself, which was that he didn’t think he needed to stay at home because he didn’t have any symptoms.]
 
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I wonder if the police will investigate the psychiatrist who told the BBC that he didn’t need to self-isolate when his wife had confirmed Covid-19 – the one that the BBC had to prevent coming to their studios, against his wishes.

I wonder if he was still seeing patients during that time.

Do we know if he has contracted Covid-19?

Also, do we know when and where Dr Gerada was tested? My recollection is that she said she picked it up in NY. Do we know if she had symptoms or was tested in NY? If so, did she travel back to the UK with confirmed of suspected Covid-19?
Very good questions.
 
This is the type of thing they need to be doing but if they don't couple it with a wider test program it may be pointless. How can they identify coronavirus carriers if they are doing such limited testing.

On the privacy aspect I did see a cryptographer comment recently about using privacy preserving crypto techniques to help hide keep data private. I will look to see if I can see anything on this.

This could be really helpful, didn’t they do something similar in China and South Korea? The problem I can see is with people not engaging with the app because of data protection concerns and privacy concerns, differences in way public views this level of interference and tracking and information gathering, different views of community, etc which is talked about in the article.

And I don’t think this app can be relied on, just by itself. Because say 20% of the infected people didn’t engage with the app, or even 10 or 5%, that’s probably enough just to cause a major outbreak and spread to so many people. If just one person didn’t cooperate even. So everyone would need to cooperate. Also how will the app by itself trace everyone? Wouldn’t other things be needed too, as in below article, they used camera footage, card details etc in S Korea. In China mobile phones were tracked extensively - one man who broke quarantine was called immediately by police and ordered to go back home within the hour.

In South Korea I’ve also read that the public have a high level of trust in their government, there is also a level of “community spirit” and also it’s enshrined in their laws that when it comes to matters of public health (like epidemics) these sort of things will need to be done.

I think this sort of app and tracking could be helpful but definitely not enough by itself.

“It was during this traumatic time that the South Korean public came to accept the costs to their privacy in return for the gains in government transparency — and thus, public safety. The revisions to public health law in the aftermath of MERS reflectthis compromise. Today, under the amended Infectious Disease Control and Prevention Act (IDCPA), the minister of health exercises expansive power to collect private data of confirmed and potential patients. At the same time, the law grants the public a “right to know,” requiring the minister to “promptly disclose information” — including the movement paths, transportation means, and contacts of patients — to the public. This bargain was crucial to legitimizing the government’s track-and-trace strategy and mobilizing the public’s cooperation in their fight against COVID-19.

Testing was followed by extensive tracking and tracing. Once a case was confirmed, the authorities tracked down the movement histories of the patient and traced the people they had contacted. The authorities worked with local governments to survey security camera footage, smartphone data, and credit card records to chart — down to the minute — the patients’ previous travels and contacts. The government also mandated and encouraged innovative ways of sharing this information. It used a GPS-tracking app to oversee and publicize patients’ movements in real time and penalize those that broke quarantine. Further, it invited companies to develop apps that visualized the patients’ anonymized location data and made them more accessible to the public. One such app — called the “Corona 100m” — alerted users when they came within 100 meters of the recent whereabouts of a coronavirus patient.

Simultaneously, the patients were categorized by risk — asymptomatic, mild, severe, or critical — and treated accordingly. Higher-risk patients, including the elderly and seriously ill, were hospitalized. By contrast, lower-risk patients, such as the young and those showing moderate to no symptoms, were sent to dormitories borrowed from companies like Samsung and LG.”

https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/a-democratic-response-to-coronavirus-lessons-from-south-korea/
 
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