Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

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I note that in the UK, although shops like Next, Body Shop, Candle shops, beauty product shops, shoe shops, Clothing shops, any shop at all you name it, although no longer open to the public, are still open for online ordering. I noticed this as I had placed a body shop order before the lockdown and I was worried it may not be despatched, but then realised it was still open online. Many of these shops and businesses are huge - with lots of stock and lots of employees in a warehouse.

That means that for all these shops - all the people working in warehouses, packing, etc are still open. Royal Mail and other delivery companies will still need as many, if not more, staff now for deliveries, as well as for in their sorting offices. I’m very surprised that these are being kept open as “essential”. There was a bit of furore recently around Next and how there was no social isolation and bad working conditions in the warehouse. I don’t know if this is the case in other countries but I’m pretty sure this was not the case in Wuhan / Hubei.

And people working in construction are still being told to go to work. I really would question if they were all essential for help with the pandemic. Judging by the number of tower blocks being built and then still being built in my town and then kept empty, I would guess not.
 
mango said:
I really hope Swedish politicians and decision makers are feeling the pressure of the world watching. Maybe that will make them reconsider and change strategies?

The Guardian: "Swedish PM warned over 'Russian roulette-style' Covid-19 strategy
Health experts ‘deeply concerned’ about Sweden’s response"

Financial Times: "Sweden bucks global trend with experimental virus strategy
Fewer restrictions than other leading countries and schools remain open"
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This is terrible. So now Sweden is following herd immunity too. :/
 
FMMM1 said:
I was in Milan before Christmas and needed directions to a Pizza place (I know stereotypical) I asked the first person we bumped into, a Chinese student! I think there are very close links between Milan and China (textile industry/textile design/fashion?). I'd have a random guess at Chinese students returning to Milan after the Christmas break.
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Yes, apparently the fashion industry around Milan has a high number of workers from Wuhan.

Edit: and many went home for Chinese New Year celebrations and no doubt some returned with the virus.
 
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FMMM1 said:
I was in Milan before Christmas and needed directions to a Pizza place (I know stereotypical) I asked the first person we bumped into, a Chinese student! I think there are very close links between Milan and China (textile industry/textile design/fashion?). I'd have a random guess at Chinese students returning to Milan after the Christmas break.
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Yes, what I had heard before, but now remember vaguely was that the link was likely to be business related rather than tourism. Milan Cathedral was one of the great finds of my student wandering in Italy but I doubt it draws as much as the Leaning Tower or Michaelangelo.
 
Mathematics of life and death: How disease models shape national shutdowns and other pandemic policies

"Long lockdowns to slow a disease can also have catastrophic economic impacts that may themselves affect public health.

'It’s a three-way tussle,” Leung says, “between protecting health, protecting the economy, and protecting people’s well-being and emotional health.'

The economic fallout isn’t something epidemic models address, Longini says—but that may have to change. 'We should probably hook up with some economic modelers and try to factor that in,' he says.
 
Keela Too said:
So getting “infected” might not mean the same thing every time. Depending on how much of the virus was received, the outcomes could potentially be very different.
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[And also] the other way around, so to say:

[Not only that] Older people who may have caught the same amount of viruses probably will deal more or less worse with it than younger people; also older people might be more dangerous when spreading the virus, because they would spread the virus in higher number.

Children might not be dangerous at all.;)


This might contribute to an explanation for the high mortality rate in Italy.
In Germany the virus came through younger people and might not only have spread predominantly among younger people but also might have spread in smaller number. Here the mortality rate could then suddenly go very high in comparison to the low one now.
 
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Jonathan Edwards said:
Yes, what I had heard before, but now remember vaguely was that the link was likely to be business related rather than tourism. Milan Cathedral was one of the great finds of my student wandering in Italy but I doubt it draws as much as the Leaning Tower or Michaelangelo.
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I was there with my wife, who was attending a syringomyelia conference, she has syringomyelia. I got an invite to the grand dinner (at the Castle) on the basis of my involvement helping with a petition for EU funding for ME (Petition No 0204/2019*). They seemed to think that the petition had been relatively successful and were interested in potentially submitting a petition relating to funding for Syringomyelia.

At the dinner I sat beside Dr. Paolo Bolognese. We live in Belfast and Paolo explained that he and his wife had sponsored teenagers from communities in Belfast affected by the troubles. It was only when I returned home that I found that he had a link to ME!

It drizzled for 3 days, while my wife was at the conference, on the fourth day it was blue skies and crystal clear. We visited the roof of the cathedral, you could see the mountains (southern alps?) covered in snow --- beautiful. Strangely it is the view from the roof, the building (roof), surrounding medieval buildings (that hadn't been destroyed in WW2), rather than the interior of the cathedral, which I recall.
As my wife reminds me just a few months later ---.

Yea, I wasn't that taken by the leaning tower.

*https://petiport.secure.europarl.eu...petition/content/0204%2F2019/html/missinglink
 
Quote from @Sly Saint 's post above

Simon says -
So it's about training, leadership.....
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What I hear is Pink Floyd's Us and Them -
"Forward he cried" from the rear. And the front rank died
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If he knows so much about treating patients in the front line and how it should be done perhaps he might like to lead by example? Join Dr Phil in volunteering at his local A&E. Show everyone how it's done.

Edit - spelling
 
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So it’s about training , leadership providing them with adequate rest and euipment, support but no direct one to one interventions unless clinically necessary when other measures have not worked. https://twitter.com/wendyburn/status/1242574865489711105 …

So in what sense is providing people with rest and equipment 'psychology'?
The only psychology we can see is the provision of lack of leadership. I find it mind boggling that Wessely actually thinks he knows what he is on about or that any genuinely intelligent person would take him seriously.
 
spinoza577 said:
The other way around, so to say:
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I maybe should have preceded my comments with “all other factors being equal”.


However I get your point. If a young person’s immune system can better contain the virus, then they may indeed spread fewer viral particles, than an older individual who’s immune system allows the virus to get out of control.
 
The newspaper is reporting that in one town, the deaths of all causes between January 1st and March 19th were about 4 times that of the previous year. In Bergamo they were about twice as high in that period.

Also I just returned from a walk and I was abnormally out of breath :eek:. I hope that's just the lack of activity in recent weeks and the face mask.
 
Keela Too said:
I maybe should have preceded my comments with “all other factors being equal”.
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No no, your message is put very well, I think. I made mine a bit more clear, I hope.

I think yesterday or so I have heard what you are saying referred in tv, but of course no source was given.

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The university of Hamburg is working on an antibody test (according to an interview in tv), so that it could be tested how many of the population has been in contact with the virus (without having had signs of any illness). The researcher said that would be important for an assessment of the situation.

The PCR test used now shows only an acute infection and not a past one. And an antibody test would also be of direct practical importance, as people who would be already immune to the virus could help in the health care system (so he said as well).
 
strategist said:
Also I just returned from a walk and I was abnormally out of breath :eek:. I hope that's just the lack of activity in recent weeks and the face mask.
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I hope so @strategist. Due to allergies as a youngster I was supposed to wear a mask in certain situations. I found wearing one made me feel more breathless than usual.

I hope you're right & that's all it is. Take care of yourself.
 
spinoza577 said:
The university of Hamburg is working on an antibody test (according to an interview in tv), so that it could be tested how many of the population has been in contact with the virus (without having had signs of any illness). The researcher said that would be important for an assessment of the situation.
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The problem with these tests, is lack of specificity compared to the PCR test (which boasts over 99% specificity) - it is hard to make an antibody test with high sensitivity (90%+) that is going to be specific to this strain compared to the other coronavirus strains.

I simply don't believe any claims about the usefulness of such tests until I've seen multiple published research studies.
 
Some data was released on the Diamond Princess cruise ship which makes for interesting reading if the data quoted in this blog are legitimate (his conclusions are well off the mark as recent trends have shown!) :

As you might imagine, before they knew it was a problem, the epidemic raged on the ship, with infected crew members cooking and cleaning for the guests, people all eating together, close living quarters, lots of social interaction, and a generally older population. Seems like a perfect situation for an overwhelming majority of the passengers to become infected.

And despite that, some 83% (82.7% – 83.9%) of the passengers never got the disease at all … why?
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https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/16/diamond-princess-mysteries/
 
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