Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

Status
Not open for further replies.
The COVID-19 (known as coronavirus) pandemic has gripped the world. On Friday 13 March, the World Health Organisation said Europe was the epicentre of it. The UK government’s response has faced increasing criticism. But away from this, there’s a second potential catastrophe which could emerge off the back of it. Yet no one is telling the public. The UK government’s “herd immunity” approach, along with Australian and US strategies, could have dire consequences.
Click to expand...
Goes on to talk about the possibility of increased cases of ME post-corona.
https://www.thecanary.co/global/wor...onavirus-catastrophe-no-one-is-talking-about/
 
BurnA said:
That's interesting. The only comment I would say is that the quarantine seems to assume no social distancing. So the quarantine alone isn't as good as social distancing but I wonder when it's combined with social distancing how does it look.
Click to expand...

With any modelling task you can include a mix of strategies (sometimes they can interact in strange ways). But I think the visualizations help bring what people are talking about to life.

What I assume they do in real models is run the models many times to look at how the results range depending on the randomness. Also to vary the situation such as the effectiveness of social distancing, the infection rates etc. If I was doing it I would be looking to ask questions such as if x% of people broke the social distancing what effect would it have etc.
 
Forbin said:
I think it may be Nature's way of telling us to keep the animals we want to live with (or consume) away from bats.
Click to expand...
An interesting article: https://www.scientificamerican.com/...wn-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/

Here are a few excepts:

"With growing human populations increasingly encroaching on wildlife habitats, with unprecedented changes in land use, with wildlife and livestock transported across countries and their products around the world, and with a sharp increase in both domestic and international travel, new disease outbreaks of pandemic scale are a near mathematical certainty....

“The Wuhan outbreak is by no means incidental.” In other words, there was an element of inevitability to it.

To many, the region’s burgeoning wildlife markets—which sell a wide range of animals such as bats, civets, pangolins, badgers and crocodiles—are perfect viral melting pots. Although humans could have caught the deadly virus from bats directly (according to several studies, including those by Shi and her colleagues), independent teams have suggested in preprint studies that pangolins may have been an intermediate host. These teams have reportedly uncovered SARS-CoV-2–like coronavirusesin these animals, which were seized in antismuggling operations in southern China....


“Bat-borne coronaviruses will cause more outbreaks,” she says with a tone of brooding certainty. “We must find them before they find us.”
 
Regarding age, I get the impression that plenty of people (not on S4ME, just generally) think “elderly” refers to something north of 80. Or at least 20 years older than themselves.

It seems to me that decisions to implement measures like school closures, border closures etc and compliance with those recommendations, would be a lot quicker and effective if more people felt they were a little more at risk than they seem to now.

To me, the age ranges in the Chinese studies of hospitalized, laboratory confirmed cases of Covid-19 suggest that a lot more people should be concerned.

The median age of the patients was 47 years (interquartile range, 35 to 58); 0.9% of the patients were younger than 15 years of age…
Patients with severe disease were older than those with nonsevere disease by a median of 7 years.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032
Click to expand...

In another study:
patients who required ICU care (n = 36): median age 66 years [IQR, 57-78]
patients who did not require ICU care (n=102): median age 51 years [IQR, 37-62]

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044

And a third study discussing their own sample's age and comparing it to the age of other study samples:
The median age of all patients was 57 years old, which is close to the data reported by Wang et al3 (56.0 years) and Chen et al1 (55.5 years), but older than that reported by Huang et al2 (49.0 years)…

Median age was 64 years in severe cases, compared to 51.5 years in nonsevere cases

[See figure 2 for chest X-rays and CT scans of a 37 year old patient who died. There is no mention of the patient having an underlying condition.]

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/all.14238
Click to expand...

For reference, average life expectancy in China is 76.25 compared to 80.96 in the UK and 78.69 in the US according to Google/World Bank data. I don't know how much life expectancy would be reduced for these study samples with a higher proportion of people with co-morbid illnesses. In Guan et al's study with a sample of 1099 patients, 23.7% had at least one coexisting illness https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032.

And the “non-severe” hospitalized cases are only non-severe relative to the severe hospitalized cases, right? Unless China managed to hospitalize everyone with symptoms? The non-severe cases in these hospital studies are presumably sicker than the moderate, mild and asymptomatic cases in the community.

I feel like something is getting lost in translation, and some people are getting a false sense of security.

I think some clarity around the term “elderly” might help. Or a bit more use of the term "middle-aged".
 
Evergreen said:
Regarding age, I get the impression that plenty of people (not on S4ME, just generally) think “elderly” refers to something north of 80. Or at least 20 years older than themselves.

It seems to me that decisions to implement measures like school closures, border closures etc and compliance with those recommendations, would be a lot quicker and effective if more people felt they were a little more at risk than they seem to now.

To me, the age ranges in the Chinese studies of hospitalized, laboratory confirmed cases of Covid-19 suggest that a lot more people should be concerned.



In another study:
patients who required ICU care (n = 36): median age 66 years [IQR, 57-78]
patients who did not require ICU care (n=102): median age 51 years [IQR, 37-62]

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044

And a third study discussing their own sample's age and comparing it to the age of other study samples:


For reference, average life expectancy in China is 76.25 compared to 80.96 in the UK and 78.69 in the US according to Google/World Bank data. I don't know how much life expectancy would be reduced for these study samples with a higher proportion of people with co-morbid illnesses. In Guan et al's study with a sample of 1099 patients, 23.7% had at least one coexisting illness https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032.

And the “non-severe” hospitalized cases are only non-severe relative to the severe hospitalized cases, right? Unless China managed to hospitalize everyone with symptoms? The non-severe cases in these hospital studies are presumably sicker than the moderate, mild and asymptomatic cases in the community.

I feel like something is getting lost in translation, and some people are getting a false sense of security.

I think some clarity around the term “elderly” might help. Or a bit more use of the term "middle-aged".
Click to expand...

Sometimes the false sense of security comes right from the very top. Which makes things a whole lot worse.

Take for example Donald Trump, who was tweeting comparing it to the flu.
Or the Uk gov, with the chief scientific adviser where the plan is for 60% of the population get it, because they say most cases are “mild”. So it’s fine for those “healthier” people to get it.
 
With the talk of banishing people aged 70+ to stay in their own homes for four months I actually wonder what the score will be at the end of that time when comparing the numbers who starved to death and those who died of coronavirus.
 
Arnie Pye said:
With the talk of banishing people aged 70+ to stay in their own homes for four months I actually wonder what the score will be at the end of that time when comparing the numbers who starved to death and those who died of coronavirus.
Click to expand...

I also don’t quite get it. Do those 70+ not have carers or family who live with them? And those family are still going out and about and to pubs, work, etc, not changing their behaviour.

The people I know over 70 have family who live with them. One person I know has different carers who come in 6 times a day. The carers are out and about all the time. Each of those carers probably visits lots of different people to look after them.
 
lunarainbows said:
One person I know has different carers who come in 6 times a day. The carers are out and about all the time. Each of those carers probably visits lots of different people to look after them.
Click to expand...
I am using a support service which can send different people. So far not one has been trained in how to deal with Covid-19. They do all use gloves though. However I found a tendency over the years of them turning up with coughs.
 
BurnA said:
I would have thought the death rate would lag by about a week.
Wouldn't a better or more immediate measure be the no. of new cases? Italy had more new cases yesterday than any other day, so from that perspective can it be interpreted how effective the lockdown is yet?
Click to expand...
The new cases in Italy today appear to be more or less the same as yesterday which is a good sign. It might be stabilising but another few days will tell.
 
It was wonderful spring weather today and I took a walk in the nearby park, carefully making sure I'm opening doors and pushing elevator buttons in my house with my elbows.

I kept my distance from the few people walking in the park and was equipped with hand sanatizer.

The only Café in my area though was packed with senior citizens (the park belongs to a nursing home).

So I'm wondering, how much can society protect the risk group if the risk group doesn't protect itself. As long as places are open to gather and sit together, people will.

And I totally understand, when you're 80 you want to sit in the sun with your friends and eat cake because who knows how much time you have left.
 
I'm 71 and OH is 74. We're hoping to ride this out at the caravan (prob better change my location to Wales for a while! :rofl:). We have lots of food stashed (from Brexit buying that we replenish as we go). OH will be able to keep going for walks (assuming he remains healthy) which will keep him fit - how are old people supposed to stay fit if they can't do the gentle exercising like walking?

Tesco, Waitrose and Asda have all delivered to the field, so hopefully we can top up fresh foods - those are the things that we'd really miss.

We're beginning to sort things out so if OH should get ill he can stay in the main bedroom which has an en suite while I have the living room (includes kitchen) and main bathroom and keep my clothes in the small bedroom. The back door has a hallway that we can use as a "air lock" between us. He's the one more likely to be ill first since I never go out other than deck or patio. I can make him tea and coffee and some food - though it'll prob be mainly things like beans on toast! No energy for complicated meals.

What got my goat about the idea of over 70s going into "cocooning" as somebody called it, is that it sounded much more like Imprisonment. And I can't see how they can police it, as when things get really hairy the police and army will be too busy dealing with other more important things than escaping pensioners! ;) And who is going to ask peoples' ages? Imagine if you were, say 55, and had had a very hard life that aged your face - how would you feel if people asked if you were under 70?

It all sounds very draconian.

It's pretty insulting too. While I may be over 70 I do understand about staying a distance from other people, being careful when shopping, washing hands, disinfecting etc etc etc. I've worked in a bacteriology lab, so I know about cross contamination and how to avoid it. So now I'm to be locked in my home? Not that I go out anyway as can't walk, but OH is just as capable of being sensible as I am.

Yes, the over 70s are more vulnerable, but feels to me like they are treating us as either 2 year olds or dementia patients who need looking after full time. We can be sensible and still go out and about in my view.

Sorry for the rant!
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom