Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

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My hands were becoming very dry with the washing. I was also having difficulty using the liquid soap so I got some Imperial Leather. It is much easier for my hard to move hands but they are also now nicely moisturised. Happy about that :)
 
I had a carer here this evening to prepare a meal. It was hard work getting across the kind of hand washing needed . I did a demo in the end. When she was leaving she mentioned that she had been in Tesco, Lidl and Aldi.3 major supermarkets and that they were All packed. She said it was like Christmas. Schools, universities and all Childcare facilities have all been closed from this evening . I hadn't thought of the implications of where the carer might have been before calling to me. A neighbour mentioned that her gp said he would be careful about using public transport. There is a lot to think about with regard to help comi g into the home. I would feel safer without but I'm not sure I could manage without.
 
Starlight said:
There is a lot to think about with regard to help comi g into the home. I would feel safer without but I'm not sure I could manage without.
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It's a difficult situation. I've just cut back the number of carer visits per week with the idea that reduces my exposure. If the epidemic gets bad in this area I'll probably try to do without, but I know that's not possible for some people.
 
lunarainbows said:
According to the world health organisation, @Barry, it spreads in a similar way to flu.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/getting-workplace-ready-for-covid-19.pdf

“When someone who has COVID-19 coughs or exhales they release droplets of infected fluid. Most of these droplets fall on nearby surfaces and objects - such as desks, tables or telephones. People could catch COVID-19 by touching contaminated surfaces or objects – and then touching their eyes, nose or mouth. If they are standing within one meter of a person with COVID-19 they can catch it by breathing in droplets coughed out or exhaled by them. In other words, COVID-19 spreads in a similar way to flu. ”

Later down it says, “
Promote regular teleworking across your organization. If there is an outbreak of COVID -19 in your community the health authorities may advise people to avoid public transport and crowded places. Teleworking will help your business keep operating while your employees stay safe.”

It literally says to avoid crowded spaces.

there’s also another WHO briefing document exactly about this topic, about avoiding crowded spaces and mass gatherings; I can’t find it right now but definitely read it a few weeks ago. It says to avoid crowded spaces as it spreads coronavirus.
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I would like to know where Fergus Walsh got his info from that Covid-19 is different to normal flu in that it is not spread more by large gatherings.
 
Barry said:
Can the spread of any highly contagious viral infection not be assisted by mass gatherings? Sounds more like pseudo-science to me - is it?
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Absolutely. Nobody knows exactly what the pattern of transmission is for this one and it is perfectly possible that it can be spread by mass gathering. After all, in South Korea thousands of people were infected at a church - isn't that a mass gathering?
 
Trish said:
It's a difficult situation. I've just cut back the number of carer visits per week with the idea that reduces my exposure. If the epidemic gets bad in this area I'll probably try to do without, but I know that's not possible for some people.
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I have one visit per week from my Mam. Rest of week in solitary confinement. I really don’t want to put my mam at further risk by coming to visit me especially as she uses public transport :( its difficult to know what to do for the best. I don’t care about my own safety to a great extent, i have no life and no dependants, so its not that big of a deal, but would hate to put my mam at further risk because of me. I couldn’t live with that.

I’m going to see her tomorrow, then see how things have developed by next week.

Between the virus and constant flood warnings, i sit here wondering which might strike first or if i even care :unsure: The only thing that fills me with utter horror for me personally is the thought of potentially going back into hospital. I still have mild PTSD from my last emergency stay there.
 
lunarainbows said:
I mean, then those experts are lying..

It either spreads through crowded events or it doesn’t. The evidence as per the world health organisation and it seems pretty much every other country in the world is, it does.
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What I heared this evening on the radio about canceling events was someone saying that spread within open air events such as sport events won't be that bad but spread in doors would be. They talked about doing things like cancelling football matches (or just having them on TV) and they raised their issue that people would just go down the pub to watch the football making spread worse.

Too me that sounds like an over simplistic model in that they don't seem to include things like travel to events (say with football on coaches) it also suggests a certain view of sports fans in terms of claims that there will be a mass going to the pub.

I worry that they have got a spread model which is overly simplistic and thus shows events aren't that bad in comparison to their beliefs about the alternatives. But it could just be that the reporting on the radio was overly simplistic. Its really hard to tell.
 
strategist said:
An Italian scientist explained why the mortality in Italy is higher than in other countries. He says that Italians just count the dead while in other countries they will try to find reasons other than coronavirus infection as cause of death. In Italy they also only count cases that meet the WHO criteria which select a more ill population and increase the apparenty mortality of the illness. An overloaded healthcare system also increases mortality. Finally the average age in Italy is high which worsens the outcomes.
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May I ask, can you clarify the 2nd and 3rd sentence? Does that mean mortality in Italy is overestimated or more realistic?
 
Adrian said:
What I heared this evening on the radio about canceling events was someone saying that spread within open air events such as sport events won't be that bad but spread in doors would be. They talked about doing things like cancelling football matches (or just having them on TV) and they raised their issue that people would just go down the pub to watch the football making spread worse.

Too me that sounds like an over simplistic model in that they don't seem to include things like travel to events (say with football on coaches) it also suggests a certain view of sports fans in terms of claims that there will be a mass going to the pub.

I worry that they have got a spread model which is overly simplistic and thus shows events aren't that bad in comparison to their beliefs about the alternatives. But it could just be that the reporting on the radio was overly simplistic. Its really hard to tell.
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Yes I can see that airborne transmission is less likely in the open air, but I wonder if they factor in things like public toilets, cafes, bars, etc.
 
Adrian said:
What I heared this evening on the radio about canceling events was someone saying that spread within open air events such as sport events won't be that bad but spread in doors would be. They talked about doing things like cancelling football matches (or just having them on TV) and they raised their issue that people would just go down the pub to watch the football making spread worse.

Too me that sounds like an over simplistic model in that they don't seem to include things like travel to events (say with football on coaches) it also suggests a certain view of sports fans in terms of claims that there will be a mass going to the pub.

I worry that they have got a spread model which is overly simplistic and thus shows events aren't that bad in comparison to their beliefs about the alternatives. But it could just be that the reporting on the radio was overly simplistic. Its really hard to tell.
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So I’ve found the document I mentioned.
https://apps.who.int/iris/rest/bitstreams/1269109/retrieve

“Key planning recommendations for Mass Gatherings in the context of the current COVID-19 outbreak
Interim Guidance
14 February 2020
1 Introduction
Mass gatherings are highly visible events with the potential for serious public health consequences if they are not planned and managed carefully. There is ample evidence that mass gatherings can amplify the spread of infectious diseases. The transmission of respiratory infections, including influenza, has been frequently associated with mass gatherings.1 Such infections can be transmitted during a mass gathering, during transit to and from the event, and in participants’ home communities upon return”.

“The decision to proceed with a mass gathering or to restrict, modify, postpone or cancel the event should be based on a thorough risk assessment. Event planners should undertake such an assessment in partnership with local and national public health authorities.
For highly visible or particularly large events, WHO may provide advice and technical support to the host country to help with assessing the public health risks associated with the event.
3.2.1 General considerations
General considerations include the following.
 A comprehensive risk assessment should be undertaken at the beginning of the planning phase, reviewed regularly during planning and updated immediately prior to the handover to the operational phase.
 The risk assessment should include input from the public health authority and should take into account the security assessment for the event.
 In relation to COVID-19 disease, the risk assessment should include consulting WHO’s updated technical guidance and ensuring that there is an up-to-date evaluation of the epidemiological situation.
 The risk assessment for the event must be coordinated and integrated with the host country's national risk assessment.

3.2.2 Specific considerations in relation to COVID-19 disease
Specific information that is necessary for the risk assessment includes:
 the global COVID-19 situation report as provided by WHO;
 the national COVID-19 situation report.
The risk assessment for COVID-19 disease should consider both general features and specific features.
 General features of COVID-19 disease include o transmission dynamics
o future likely spread of the epidemic
o clinical severity
o treatment options
o potential for prevention, including available pharmaceuticals and vaccine.
 Specific features of the event that should be considered include o crowd density;
o the nature of contact between participants (for example, a concert or religious event, indoors or outdoors, the layout of the venue);
o whether the event will be attended by registered and non-registered participants;
o the profession of the participants and their possible previous exposure; 3

o the number of participants coming from countries or areas affected by the COVID-19 outbreak within 14 days prior to the event;
o the age of participants; because elderly people who have co-morbid conditions appear to be more seriously affected, mass gatherings composed principally of this cohort may be associated with increased transmission;
o the type or purpose of event (for example, sporting, festival, religious, political, cultural);
o the duration and mode of travel of participants; if the duration of the mass gathering is longer than the incubation period for COVID-19 infection
(14 days), then most event-associated cases would be expected to occur while the event is under way. In contrast, if the duration is shorter, most cases would likely occur after the event as people travel and return to their home communities...”

there’s a lot more on the link.

In any case it says that indoor/outdoor shouod be one of the considerations to look at, not that outdoor is completely safe. In fact by the looks of it there’s quite comprehensive guidance about limiting crowds and events. There is ample evidence mass gatherings can spread these infections, according to WHO.
 
Barry said:
Yes I can see that airborne transmission is less likely in the open air, but I wonder if they factor in things like public toilets, cafes, bars, etc.
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Another thing is, even if the theory is the Govt is not banning outdoor events as they’re safer. It’s not as if they’re banning indoor events either though? So they think indoor events are safe too.
 
lunarainbows said:
Another thing is, even if the theory is the Govt is not banning outdoor events as they’re safer. It’s not as if they’re banning indoor events either though? So they think indoor events are safe too.
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Yes, and in your previous post it highlights another significant risk factor, if a lot of people converge onto public transport as they travel to and from.
 
So tonight the bbc expert at 18.10 radio 4 mentioned UV exposure at open air events as a positive. As a self isolator I wonder if any research has occurred on the virus reaction to UV? For instance, I understand herpes simplex becomes more active under UV. Would UV exposure from a lamp sterilise fruit and vegetables, as my current practice of quarantine for 72 hours leaves a lot to be desired taste wise. Further, is the virus life extended by cooling in a fridge or killed off in the freezer?

There seems to be a complete lack of very basic scientific public guidance from Public Health organisations regarding PPE - gloves, masks -some NHS sites suggest pp3 level masks are suitable for virus protection. Disinfectants, do they work if so which ones, and how fast? Since eyes are moist and are an entry path are all masks pointless unless they are full gas respirator mask type?

After 10 weeks plus public exposure and years of virus warfare research we really should be better educated globally. Perhaps it’s time the government mailed a copy of Protect and Survive by second class post to all house holds? (Cold War nuclear protection booklet from the 1970s for non uk readers) Basic message was hide under the table. Bit like tonight’s message let’s all hide at home Mr wolf.
 
mango said:
There are a lot of strong opinions on whether to close schools or not in Sweden too. The reason the government is giving for not closing schools at this point is that it would force too many healthcare professionals to stay home and take care of their own healthy children, instead of going to work where they are needed the most, taking care of very sick people.

Source: https://www.svt.se/nyheter/darfor-stanger-inte-folkhalsomyndigheten-skolor
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In Norway they've decided to close kindergartens and schools, but that managers/headteachers must find a solution for childcare for children with parents in critical society functions. People are encouraged to work from home, and parents are warned against using grandparents as babysitters.

Here's an update from the Norwegian Institute of Public Health on which measures that were just implemented. It's quite extensive:
https://www.fhi.no/en/news/2020/nor...-implements-the-following-today---from-6-p.m/
 
Just FYI, @lunarainbows - Regarding the tweets you posted they show the USA as having no restrictions on mass gatherings. But recently several states have restricted mass gatherings.

For example, Oregon state has said no gatherings greater than 250:

https://www.opb.org/news/article/coronavirus-large-gathering-ban-oregon-kate-brown/

(link goes to OPB website = Oregon Public Broadcasting)

I know both Washington and California have set similar restrictions, not sure if the numbers are the same. Some other states & cities have set similar limits.

But there's so much going on that I have not kept track of numbers/details for anywhere else but my own state.
 
ahimsa said:
Just FYI, @lunarainbows - Regarding the tweets you posted they show the USA as having no restrictions on mass gatherings. But recently several states have restricted mass gatherings.

For example, Oregon state has said no gatherings greater than 250:

https://www.opb.org/news/article/coronavirus-large-gathering-ban-oregon-kate-brown/

(link goes to OPB website = Oregon Public Broadcasting)

I know both Washington and California have set similar restrictions, not sure if the numbers are the same. Some other states & cities have set similar limits.

But there's so much going on that I have not kept track of numbers/details for anywhere else but my own state.
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Those were from the policy editor at newsnight! I’m surprised he got them wrong as he showed them on TV tonight. Hopefully he updates it at some point :)
 
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