Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

[Sisyphus]

Or we may be essentially immune to the more severe effects, like the Spanish flu that essentially ignored everyone apart from the robustly healthy (at least according to my recollection of it).

Of course being essentially immune, to the virus, may not be that useful if enough other people get it, like the people who stock supermarkets, or home delivery drivers, or people who keep water and power running.

So far this one appears to be taking down the old, those with co-morbidities and, curiously, otherwise healthy medical staff who fit neither criteria. It hasn't caused severe or even uncomfortable trouble in children under ... ummm... whatever the Chinese cutoff for 'child' is. Mild cases are 80% or more, so the lights will stay on.

 

[Snow Leopard]

It's definitely very contagious. It spreads in Singapore, so summer will not halt it unless there's something defective about the 85F air in equatorial Singapore.
It seems near impossible to stop. It may be an overhyped cold/flu, or it may be deadly to people like us.
????

It is not near impossible to stop, numbers of currently infected are already shrinking day by day in China.

With 81 cases in Singapore and 36% already recovered, it is likely under control there.

 

[lansbergen]

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/22221751.2020.1729071

Molecular and serological investigation of 2019-nCoV infected patients: implication of multipleshedding routes

ABSTRACT
In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) caused an outbreak in Wuhan, China, and soon spread to other partsof the world. It was believed that 2019-nCoV was transmitted through respiratory tract and then induced pneumonia, thusmolecular diagnosis based on oral swabs was used for confirmation of this disease. Likewise, patient will be released upontwo times of negative detection from oral swabs. However, many coronaviruses can also be transmitted through oral–fecal route by infecting intestines. Whether 2019-nCoV infected patients also carry virus in other organs like intestineneed to be tested. We conducted investigation on patients in a local hospital who were infected with this virus. Wefound the presence of 2019-nCoV in anal swabs and blood as well, and more anal swab positives than oral swabpositives in a later stage of infection, suggesting shedding and thereby transmitted through oral–fecal route. We also showed serology test can improve detection positive rate thus should be used in future epidemiology. Our report provides a cautionary warning that 2019-nCoV may be shed through multiple routes

 

[TrixieStix]

So far this one appears to be taking down the old, those with co-morbidities and, curiously, otherwise healthy medical staff who fit neither criteria. It hasn't caused severe or even uncomfortable trouble in children under ... ummm... whatever the Chinese cutoff for 'child' is. Mild cases are 80% or more, so the lights will stay on.

I highly recommend the videos being done by medical professor Dr. John Campbell (he is in the UK) about SARS-Cov-2 (aka: Covid-19) He posts 1 or 2 new videos a day and he is really great at examining and explaining the various studies that are now being published daily in medical journals about the virus.

I especially recommend his recent video about 'fevers' where he explains how they work. I had no idea of the physiologic details.

In this video he specifically examines a study of Covid-19 in infants....



Here is link to his main YT page listing all his videos...

https://m.youtube.com/user/Campbellteaching/videos

 

[Leila]

I also like his oldschool, calm way of presenting without all these sensory triggers. It's like a lecture from the 90s

 

[Snow Leopard]

Some counterpoints to claims it is under control:



tl;dw: Fake masks. The rapidly built hospital is a leaky mess. The quarantine measures are being ignored by thousands of people. The CCP is heavily censoring the media and social media in China. The CCP is expelling foreign journalists.

 

[Leila]

According to these news China now has openly stated that they think the Coronavirus can be transmitted through aerosol as well as communal sewage systems
(starting around 06:10)

 

[Jonathan Edwards]

According to these news China now has openly stated that they think the Coronavirus can be transmitted through aerosol as well as communal sewage systems
(starting around 06:10)

Presumably spread through communal sewage systems requires the sewage to come back up to the surface to infect people! I once saw a television program in which loo pipes in apartment blocks went down through other people's kitchens and leaked!

 

[TrixieStix]

According to these news China now has openly stated that they think the Coronavirus can be transmitted through aerosol as well as communal sewage systems
(starting around 06:10)

In light of this new information being announced by Chinese officials Dr. John Campbell posted an informative video today explaining the difference between 'droplet' vs 'airborne' transmission.

 

[Hip]

WHO confirms 1200 cases outside China, and 8 deaths = 0.67% death rate

So the death rate outside China seems to be lower than the overall reported death rate in China, which is around 2%.

But a lower death rate can also be found inside China: looking at the figures on this coronavirus map, in major Chinese cities other than Wuhan, by totting up the numbers I calculated that the death rate is 0.58%, which is close to the WHO figure of the 0.67% death rate in other countries.

And the same map shows the death rate in Wuhan is 3.4%. Thus the death rate is substantially higher in Wuhan, compared to other Chinese cities, and compared to other countries.

Thus there may be something about the Wuhan environment which makes this new coronavirus more virulent and more lethal.


It's interesting that Wuhan was designated by the Chinese government to be a city hosting major heavy industry. Now given that China's cities are terribly polluted in general, you might expect that a heavy industry city like Wuhan will be even more polluted than your average city in China. Thus over the years, conceivably the Wuhan populace may have build up in their bodies a toxic load of heavy metals and other poisons, and perhaps it is these toxins which are making Wuhan residents more susceptible to this new coronavirus.

 

[Leila]

Wouldnt that have shown in other illnesses that affect the lungs, too? Like in high rates of asthma, lung cancer, other kinds of pneumonia etc.?

Have there been any autopsies done?

 

[TrixieStix]

So the death rate outside China seems to be lower than the overall reported death rate in China, which is around 2%.

But a lower death rate can also be found inside China: looking at the figures on this coronavirus map, in major Chinese cities other than Wuhan, I calculated that the death rate is 0.58%, which is close to the WHO figure of the 0.67% death rate in other countries.

There is solid and trustworthy data coming out of South Korea because they currently have a very good handle on tracking all the known cases. Right now they are reporting a death rate of 0.2 - 0.4 but it's expected that the death rate will increase in the coming weeks as those who are infected have not been sick long enough for the severe complications to arise yet.

Another factor that figures into the death rate is the ability of each country to treat those who are sick. If a country or area become totally overwhelmed by large numbers of people who are infected and their medical resources become stretched beyond their capacity the death rate would be expected to increase. This is undoubtedly a factor in China's higher death rate.

 

[Samuel]

during the sars outbreak, a nurse in montreal posted to a private mailing list i was on about what conditions were like in her hospital.

a bunch of medical staff just abandoned their duty. it did not sound good.

otoh i saw a ted talk by a guy who kept treating ebola during a peak of that crisis in africa. he washed in bleach and stuff like that.

it seems a good thing to teach in medical school would be a duty ethic. they've got it in the military. i don't see why it can't be instilled [edit: created -- you can use it as a criterion in admissions] in medicine also.

 

[Hip]

Wouldnt that have shown in other illnesses that affect the lungs, too? Like in high rates of asthma, lung cancer, other kinds of pneumonia etc.?

Possibly, but toxins which might make you more susceptible to viral infection may not necessarily also increase asthma or lung cancer incidence.

Another factor that figures into the death rate is the ability of each country to treat those who are sick. If a country or area become totally overwhelmed by large numbers of people who are infected and their medical resources become stretched beyond their capacity the death rate would be expected to increase. This is undoubtedly a factor in China's higher death rate.

That could be a factor if the appropriate hospital treatment of this infection (such as oxygen) is able to save lives, and that treatment were to become unavailable to some patients because of hospitals being overwhelmed.

 

[Sisyphus]

Or we may be essentially immune to the more severe effects, like the Spanish flu that essentially ignored everyone apart from the robustly healthy (at least according to my recollection of it).

Of course being essentially immune, to the virus, may not be that useful if enough other people get it, like the people who stock supermarkets, or home delivery drivers, or people who keep water and power running.

during the sars outbreak, a nurse in montreal posted to a private mailing list i was on about what conditions were like in her hospital.

a bunch of medical staff just abandoned their duty. it did not sound good.

otoh i saw a ted talk by a guy who kept treating ebola during a peak of that crisis in africa. he washed in bleach and stuff like that.

it seems a good thing to teach in medical school would be a duty ethic. they've got it in the military. i don't see why it can't be instilled in medicine also.

Duty ethic: **

This was formerly stated in the USA (and probably the Anglosphere) a honoring, upholding and whenever necessary fighting for "God, Family, Country". The notion has been mostly chased out of modern society. Try getting your local public school to teach it, along with honoring the Flag (or the Queen, etc).
When needed, the culture custodians will again demand duty and sacrifice of the ordinaries, as if they haven't mocked, derided and deconstructed such values and the national unity they depend on since Gramsci.

** This comment is venturing into OT material, but I don't know how to bring up the issue of running away from a fire without noting there are acts you can't get people to do with training or money. Said more pointedly here.

 

[Snow Leopard]

Thus there may be something about the Wuhan environment which makes this new coronavirus more virulent and more lethal.

I suspect it is a demographic effect, namely more smokers and older people affected.

 

[Leila]

Asymptomatic transmission without getting ill yourself seems possible, too.

“Scientists have been asking if you can have this infection and not be ill? The answer is apparently, yes,” he said.

“You had this patient from Wuhan where the virus is, traveling to where the virus wasn’t. She remained asymptomatic and infected a bunch of family members and you had a group of physicians who immediately seized on the moment and tested everyone.”

2 Germans that were repatriated from Wuhan also were tested positive without ever developing any symptoms.

 

[Hoopoe]

132 cases in Italy now.

 

[Leila]

Yes and many people in Northern Italy under lockdown which happened very quickly within 2 days.

Prepping now seems like a good idea.

It's Carnival in Germany right now and I'm worried numbers will go up, soon (people get very close to each other).

 

[Sid]

Interesting thread on chinese plumbing and sewage:



Would explain why so many videos have emerged on social media of authorities welding shut entire apartment buildings.

More than the virus itself I'm concerned about supply chain disruptions. So many critical industries have been outsourced to Asia. 80% of antibiotics are manufactured in china, not to mention other meds.