Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

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@Invisible Woman the Met police were on the News yesterday saying they had been put in a “very very difficult position” and that the govt had not communicated with them at all about how they were supposed to deal with or enforce these new rules.

It seems they were just as much in the dark as the rest of us!

I think people are going to just keep taking advantage of things until the police / other govt bodies get on top of things. Like I heard yesterday Sports Direct are staying open because they said they’re an essential service as people need clothes to go jogging and do exercise!
 
It's estimated that one million Canadians flew back to Canada these past few weeks. One elderly women died on the plane from COVID19. The passengers were not properly screened before or after their flight and told to self-isolate when they arrive home. I highly doubt most will do this from what I am seeing on t.v. It makes me very angry to see ppl not taking this seriously.
 
Apparently it's down to Environmental Health and Trading Standards Authorities to monitor compliance and then the police to provide support as necessary according to the PDF @Andy posted upthread.

I guess they will continue to us the usual lines of communication between them. They might want to improve those though.

I think ultimately there will end up being the penalty of local goodwill as well for businesses appearing to profiteer or flout regulations put in place to protect us all. Especially as the number of deaths rise. Of course, that's after the event.

Each individual has a responsibility too though, not to spend money in businesses which shouldn't be open.
 
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Jonathan Edwards said:
Edit: This may also explain why the trail from cases coming from China went cold but not for those coming back from Italy, many of whom would be regular socialisers who went to the pub within a week in their prodromal phase.
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If this is true with bars and restaurants closed the spread of the infection should drop dramatically.
 
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I don’t think this is going to work out well..

Lots of people are still going to be travelling into and going to work in the UK. This particularly involves all manufacturing and construction industries. Still a big lack of clarity. And doesn’t seem to be about “essential work”, as first thought.



 
Jonathan Edwards said:
I suspect that spread actually depends on quite specific mechanisms that much of the time do not apply. Apparently only 15% of family will get infected by a case. That does not sound like most respiratory viruses where usually everyone in a household gets it once one has brought it home.
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How confident can we be of that 15% figure? Could it be that the other family members do get infected but their symptoms are negligible? Or is the figure determined from positive testing?

ETA: No worries, should have read rest of thread first.
 
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Jonathan Edwards said:
The numbers are going to be small for the foreseeable future (maybe 1/250), but perhaps not insignificant. We have already had a medic saying they are ready to get to the front line once recovered. I agree that people who cannot do their own job would be useful drafted into healthcare, but other than as orderlies they will need quite a lot of training. Things go badly wrong very easily if people do not now what to do.
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Fully appreciated. But there must be quite a lot of jobs need doing even amongst the farmed-out roles, meals, drinks, etc. There are likely roles which do not involve direct involvement with patients but which might still be risky for uninfected people?
 
Calls are growing for the government to give clarity over its strict new rules to stop the spread of coronavirus.

The measures, announced on Monday, tell Britons to only go to work if "absolutely necessary".

But on Tuesday, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said those who cannot work from home should go to work "to keep the country running".
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52022417
 
Barry said:
Fully appreciated. But there must be quite a lot of jobs need doing even amongst the farmed-out roles, meals, drinks, etc. There are likely roles which do not involve direct involvement with patients but which might still be risky for uninfected people?
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Absolutely. If past presidents of royal colleges are not up to going back to medicine then they should volunteer as kitchen skivvies or barmaids.
 
Mij said:
It's estimated that one million Canadians flew back to Canada these past few weeks. One elderly women died on the plane from COVID19. The passengers were not properly screened before or after their flight and told to self-isolate when they arrive home. I highly doubt most will do this from what I am seeing on t.v. It makes me very angry to see ppl not taking this seriously.
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Yes, indeed! Here in Montreal I hear some folks 70+ annoyed with Prime minister Legault, and saying that it is 'ageism' to ask them to confine themselves at home, if they are healthy and well. But I read another story, I think in the National Post, of a doctor begging folks to abide by confinement. He stated that his Dad, in his 70s, very healthy and strong and still running the family store, died within 7 days of Covid. The son stated that his Dad was in hospital and that on day 6 he so deteriorated he died on day 7. He had no underlying conditions.
 
Adam pwme said:
Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

No idea how accurate the model is seems unlikely. They are working on testing a sample on the general population.
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I really would like to see the model, and would also like to see many other epidemiologists and scientists (including ones critical of the original Imperial model and SAGE decisions), have a look at this model. We’ve already been down a disastrous road before in the UK, and again it seems to be another UK team with a study that shows “the emerging evidence made her confident that humanity would build up herd immunity against Covid-19.”.

Ie this model is once again another pathway to supporting the govt’s original standpoint of: well since we have/will get herd immunity, we don’t need these kinds of restrictions and don’t need to stop the virus spreading.
 
Adam pwme said:
Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

No idea how accurate the model is seems unlikely. They are working on testing a sample on the general population.
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Whatever the truth is, we can be sure that the UK public will be blamed for the spread of the disease and the deaths that occur. The fact that we have no accurate statistics on anything to do with COVID-19 in the UK (apart from possibly deaths, but I would be surprised if even that was accurate) because almost nobody gets tested, the fact that there is a huge lack of protective equipment for the general public who want it, the patients who are in hospital for accidents, heart attacks, strokes etc, and the doctors, nurses and other healthcare staff who are working with the sick, the fact that we have too few staff, too few beds, too few ventilators... I suspect all these things are going to be brushed under the carpet while the public get blamed for everything.

The government is passing the buck, big time. And yet they have been getting it wrong almost from the beginning.
 
@Adam pwme

I think this is the model from Oxford which says over 50% of the population of UK are infected. Does anyone want to have a look at it? (Edit: confirmed that yes this is the model).

And yes it is all about “herd immunity”.

Edit: I’ve just had a quick look over it. It seems to be a simple model, not really taking into account much at all? And is also making some big assumptions I think.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model (13).pdf?dl=0
 
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