Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

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Invisible Woman said:
I agree that non essential shops should close. I'm not sure why Waterstones hasn't. Perhaps because it hasn't an online presence?

Most of the shops I use online have physical stores. My inbox has been much busier with messages from them saying they are closing their stores, but are still open for business online.
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They do have an online website, I’ve bought from them before. The person I know who works in a shop in my local area selling home accessories, also has an online store.

Andy said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51994504
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Since people can’t be relied upon to behave as they should, the govt should have closed down all outdoor areas (parks, national trusts etc) as well as all indoor areas (shops). It’s clear many people don’t respond to ethical considerations for the good of others, out of their own choice.
 
I'm lucky to live in an area with lots of country walks and open areas. My husband's morning walk was much, much busier than usual. Most of the time you can stay 6" + away, but some of the trails and paths narrow unexpectedly and are steep sided.

I think some people seem to be of a "snow-day" mindset. Temporarily free of restrictions of work and school without being sick and having a make the most of it attitude without thought for the consequences :banghead:.

I saw one exchange on our Nextdoor site where one woman was moaning as she has a dog and two kids and a very small garden and why had the National Trust shut a local site. Her kids needed a good space to run around and play. Then the person she was posting with explained she was a critical care nurse and running and playing in a crowded space where keeping your distancing is no longer possible is dangerous.

Sadly, I think we will end up with lots of these spaces having to be closed down, because people just aren't getting the message. A shame, because if we don't all go at once, there is plenty of space and being able to have a nice walk outdoors could make life a lot more bearable for so many in the weeks to come.

Talk about being your own worst enemy.
 
Adrian said:
The spread rate will depend on what mitigations are in place to prevent spread
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Actually if we look at the historical UK coronavirus death numbers shown in the graph on this page, we can see that over the last two weeks, deaths have been doubling approximately every 2 days!

So assuming again a 1% death rate, Tomas Pueyo's formula predicts that there are 8.4 million people infected in the UK today! That's quite an alarming figure.

That means about 1 in 8 people are now infected in Britain.



Tomas Pueyo's formula:

Number currently infected = D * (100/P) * 2^(17/T)

Where:
D = number of deaths to date
T = death number doubling time in days
P = percentage of infected people who die


So plugging in today's values, in the UK we have:

Number currently infected = 233 * (100/1) * 2^(17/2) = 8.4 million.

 
Hip said:
That's true, but you can easily determine the degree of exponential growth by looking at the increase in deaths over the previous two weeks say. If for example the deaths were to double every 6 days, then you put that into your exponential calculation. If mitigations are put in place that slow down viral spread, and then deaths then double only every 14 days say, that becomes the basis of your formula.
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Not really the death rate will depend on how the spread is occurring. You are making an assumption of equal spread over the whole population but if the older and less healthy are doing more social distancing then this may not be the case. Equally death rate is a lagging indicator (I would have thought) so it doesn't take into account recent mitigations that have come into place.

Hip said:
PLE report that there are 5,018 infected cases in the UK today, but with the total deaths at 233 so far, Tomas Pueyo's formula predicts that there are actually 233 * 800 = 186,400 infected people in Britain.
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The infection rate is likely to be much higher than the confirmed cases in the UK because they are doing minimal testing. But it is very hard to guess estimates. They are doing some surveillance (i.e. random sampling of certain GP surgeries) which is more likely to give a good estimate when scaled up.

Having a random formula isn't likely to have great accuracy and hence doesn't give much information. This is particularly true where there is exponential growth because a small change in a parameter or assumption will lead to a large change in prediction.

Hip said:
Do you know of any computer models that are currently being used to predict the number of infected people in the UK on a day by day basis? I have not seen any. That's why I found the formula offered by Tomas Pueyo a useful way of getting a rough figure for the number infected.
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There are models like the one used by imperial but I don't think they are publicly available.
 
Roy S said:
This guy makes sense and they are starting this in New York where the confirmed cases are shooting up with increased testing.

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This sounds bang on to me. Very simple solution to very complex problem. Need facilities fast, so state take over of existing spaces - hotels, student accommodations, etc. - with a single design that can be tweaked as needed, so contractors can go in and get facilities up and running fast ... over and over and over again. Just the bare minimum requirement, so you exploit the right side of the law of diminishing returns. People may end up finding their hospital experiences to be extremely utilitarian, but far better they get the chance to feel that way.

The military are good at this stuff, they have to be. No procrastination or bullsh*t, just action. I hope our leaders are seeing this.
 
Invisible Woman said:
I'm lucky to live in an area with lots of country walks and open areas. My husband's morning walk was much, much busier than usual. Most of the time you can stay 6" + away, but some of the trails and paths narrow unexpectedly and are steep sided.

I think some people seem to be of a "snow-day" mindset. Temporarily free of restrictions of work and school without being sick and having a make the most of it attitude without thought for the consequences :banghead:.

I saw one exchange on our Nextdoor site where one woman was moaning as she has a dog and two kids and a very small garden and why had the National Trust shut a local site. Her kids needed a good space to run around and play. Then the person she was posting with explained she was a critical care nurse and running and playing in a crowded space where keeping your distancing is no longer possible is dangerous.

Sadly, I think we will end up with lots of these spaces having to be closed down, because people just aren't getting the message. A shame, because if we don't all go at once, there is plenty of space and being able to have a nice walk outdoors could make life a lot more bearable for so many in the weeks to come.

Talk about being your own worst enemy.
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My wife and I went out for a walk today with our dog. Deliberately avoided one place which is lovely, but confined to boardwalks and narrow paths. Instead went out onto an open heath with many paths (and is also lovely), and whenever we met anyone there just seemed to be an unwritten rule that we kept well away - 20 feet typically I'd say - but still able to exchange some pleasantries along the way. Made a point of not touching gates with hands - on this walk none are latched, just spring loaded. Different, but it felt like safe social distancing did not have to result in complete social isolation.
 
Simon M said:
Looks like we have DominicCummins and Patrick Vallance to thank for our current situation - at least according to this Buzzfeed report (thanks to @Andy, I think, for posting earlier)

10 Days That Changed Britain: "Heated" Debate Between Scientists Forced Boris Johnson To Act On Coronavirus https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwickham/10-days-that-changed-britains-coronavirus-approach
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Also - "There was no consensus. Several of the scientists frantically argued that the UK must immediately introduce social distancing to halt the spread of the virus. Some pleaded with the government to change tack or face dire consequences. But others continued to believe that introducing social distancing now would be unsustainable for a long period and would lead to a more disastrous second wave of infection."

I'd like to know which experts were giving this advice, and on the basis of what evidence.
 
Adrian said:
Not really the death rate will depend on how the spread is occurring. You are making an assumption of equal spread over the whole population but if the older and less healthy are doing more social distancing then this may not be the case.
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Yes, tue that is a possibility; but in any case the exact death rate does not change the result of the calculation by a great deal. Changing the death rate from 1% to 0.5% for example only doubles the calculated figure for the number infected.

For a rough calculation like this, I think you can only hope to get order of magnitude accuracy, no more than that.



Adrian said:
Equally death rate is a lagging indicator (I would have thought) so it doesn't take into account recent mitigations that have come into place.
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Yes, that's right, if new mitigations are applied, which changes the spread dynamic, you would have to wait a week or so for the effects of the mitigations to manifest before you obtain the new exponential spread parameters (ie, the doubling time for the number infected).

But I don't think that affects the calculation I did today, because in the UK major mitigations were only put in place over the last few days, so over the previous 17 days (which is the time period the calculation runs) it would not affect things much.

But for future use of this formula, we would have to wait a week or two for the effect of the mitigations to manifest, and then get the updated exponential parameters.



Adrian said:
Even a small change in the parameter of 2 to 2.05 changes the estimate by 1million. So if you are really going to believe in this formula you really need very highly accurate figures for the 'death number doubling time in days'. Rounding to an int will produce huge changes.
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True, but again I think we can only hope for order of magnitude accuracy in this calculation.

And note that the sensitivity to small changes is greater when the doubling time is very small, like 2 days in this case. It's not so sensitive when the doubling time is say 6 days.

In fact I can't really believe that the number of infected people is doubling every 2 days, as the 2-day doubling of UK death figures suggest.

I don't really understand why these deaths are doubling so fast; maybe the doubling of deaths is happening faster than the doubling of the number infected, for some reason that I can't put my finger on at the moment.



I certainly hope that the calculated figure of 8.4 million is larger than actuality, because if it is really true that 10% to 20% of those infected require hospitalization, then as those 8.4 million start to become sick, it's going really overload the hospitals and the poor doctors and nurses. Not the mention the patients who will die for want of a ventilator.
 
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Simbindi said:
That doesn't mean you don't strictly enforce the rules, just that you enable as many people as possible to make the correct choices autonomously by trying to help them understand the reasons.
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I don't disagree. One of the huge problems we have faced is that everyone is being bombarded with information, and some of it is totally wrong. Just trying to figure out the optimal choices is hard when you don't have accurate facts or good understanding.
 
Adrian said:
Even a small change in the parameter of 2 to 2.05 changes the estimate by 1million. So if you are really going to believe in this formula you really need very highly accurate figures for the 'death number doubling time in days'. Rounding to an int will produce huge changes.
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I don't regard any numbers as reliable right now. Instead I think of them as indicative. Anything with a distinct doubling period is a serious concern. It can go from not much of a problem to a calamity in a short time. Those who are planning to deal with issues need to take that into account.
 
This. My pain has been getting worse and I can’t go into hospital.



Today, no new measures. Johnson just asking people to stay away from others but also that going out and about is good for mental health. You know what else is good for mental health? Having a govt that will close down shops, tourist attractions and anything that will stop people going there, and having a govt that will do all it can to delay the spread of the virus and save people lives by enforcing measures not “nudging” people, and do all it can to save our completely drowning NHS. I think we’ve seen all the scenes today from the tourist attractions, parks and supermarkets today in the UK. Horrific.

In other places, BBC correspondent in Rome..



Edit: forgot to say, elderly / vulnerable people have to stay at home for 12 weeks and will get food delivered. So is everyone else free to walk around then? What about the fact healthy people live with vulnerable people; and they’ll have carers too? Why doesn’t everyone just stay at home like is happening in other countries. Or are we still on the herd immunity plan?
 
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This thing about hospital staff not being able to get shopping; surely the hospitals are getting regular food etc supplies for the patients? Couldn't they organise a little 'staff shop' where employess could pick up some essentials? or organise something with the supermarkets so that the staff get priority deliveries maybe even delivered direct to the hospital for staff to collect?
 
Esther12 said:
But others continued to believe that introducing social distancing now would be unsustainable for a long period and would lead to a more disastrous second wave of infection."

I'd like to know which experts were giving this advice, and on the basis of what evidence.
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Yes, I wonder if that psychiatrist who was interviewed on the BBC Today programme might be one of them. Can’t remember his name. The one who said he didn’t need to self-isolate when his wife had confirmed covid-19. The one who wanted to go to the BBC studios when the BBC website was publishing the following advice from PHE that he should be self-isolating for 14 days.

B92EDB3D-2305-4753-BADF-266D8D691BD3.jpeg


Unfortunately, there is still no information about the members of the secret Independent Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviours (SPI-B) on the Government SAGE website: https://www.gov.uk/government/group...mergencies-sage-coronavirus-covid-19-response

Maybe we should ask Richard Horton to put in a FOI request.

[Edit typo]
 
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lunarainbows said:
This. My pain has been getting worse and I can’t go into hospital.
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This worries me too. Not for myself, but it's inevitable that some who need ambulances and emergency care may not get it because the system is over burdened.

I was struck by the SkyNews reader discussing that deaths had occurred in people between the ages of 18 and 102 but kept stressing that all of the deaths were people with underlying health problems & so in at risk groups.

I understand not wanting to panic the general populace but there's a high degree of complacency already. In this situation we are not only responsible for our own health, we are also responsible for each other's through our behaviour.

People don't seem to understand just how sick they may become, even if they don't die. Or that because they have unwittingly spread the infection, when they need an ambulance it won't be there because it will be in the process of being deep cleaned.
 
Sly Saint said:
regular food etc supplies for the patients? Couldn't they organise a little 'staff shop' where employess could pick up some essentials? or organise something with the supermarkets so that the staff get priority deliveries maybe even delivered direct to the hospital for staff to collect?
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Hospitals do not organise anythng much these days.They outsource.Catering is probably provided by commercial outfits. Nobody had any idea how to plan a co-ordinated action.
 
The following was mentioned in a BMJ report: https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1118
Since the end of February Public Health England has been running a surveillance programme, testing a random sample of the population at 100 general practices to help officials understand the level of virus circulating in the community.
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Would really like to see the results. It's still very difficult to guess how far the virus has spread in the population.
 
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