Article : Rapid rise in mortality in England and Wales in early 2018 – an investigation is needed

[Arnie Pye]

Link : http://theconversation.com/rapid-ri...n-early-2018-an-investigation-is-needed-93311

In the first seven weeks of 2018, over 10,000 (12.4%) more people died in England and Wales than was usual for the time of year. No official explanation from government health officials for this sharp rise in mortality has been forthcoming.


It became crystal clear in early 2018 that the health and social care system was not coping with the demands being placed upon it. On January 2, in an unprecedented step by the NHS, thousands of non-urgent operations were cancelled. Many hospitals were already at, or beyond, their safe working levels, even though the weather was warmer than normal so any surge in demand was not due to unusually cold conditions. Another suggestion has been that the main reason for there being so much demand was a rise in influenza.

...

A huge number of measures of the nation’s health have deteriorated, including a very rapid and largely unreported recent increase in the numbers of deaths among mental health patients in care in England and Wales. This is just one of many factors that have to be taken into account. Many waiting-time and NHS response targets are now not being met due to a lack of resources.

So, if neither a particularly heavy flu season nor very cold weather can explain the continued rise in mortality, what can? One answer might be the government’s austerity measures. Research has demonstrated that cuts to the welfare payments of elderly people and disability benefits have had statistically significant effects on the rise in mortality in recent years.

Entire article : http://theconversation.com/rapid-ri...n-early-2018-an-investigation-is-needed-93311

 

[Skycloud]

I hope this gets reported sensibly in the mainstream press.

 

[Jonathan Edwards]

So, if neither a particularly heavy flu season nor very cold weather can explain the continued rise in mortality, what can? One answer might be the government’s austerity measures. Research has demonstrated that cuts to the welfare payments of elderly people and disability benefits have had statistically significant effects on the rise in mortality in recent years.

This might seem like politics and a breach of forum rules but I am actually surprised the dip is not worse. I took my mother to A/E last autumn and the deterioration in care since I retired was mind-blowing. People will be dying all over the place from inadequate services. Basic medical care has fallen through the floor. God knows when the general public will wake up to this enough to make a difference.

 

[Amw66]

Link : http://theconversation.com/rapid-ri...n-early-2018-an-investigation-is-needed-93311

In the first seven weeks of 2018, over 10,000 (12.4%) more people died in England and Wales than was usual for the time of year. No official explanation from government health officials for this sharp rise in mortality has been forthcoming.


It became crystal clear in early 2018 that the health and social care system was not coping with the demands being placed upon it. On January 2, in an unprecedented step by the NHS, thousands of non-urgent operations were cancelled. Many hospitals were already at, or beyond, their safe working levels, even though the weather was warmer than normal so any surge in demand was not due to unusually cold conditions. Another suggestion has been that the main reason for there being so much demand was a rise in influenza.

...

A huge number of measures of the nation’s health have deteriorated, including a very rapid and largely unreported recent increase in the numbers of deaths among mental health patients in care in England and Wales. This is just one of many factors that have to be taken into account. Many waiting-time and NHS response targets are now not being met due to a lack of resources.

So, if neither a particularly heavy flu season nor very cold weather can explain the continued rise in mortality, what can? One answer might be the government’s austerity measures. Research has demonstrated that cuts to the welfare payments of elderly people and disability benefits have had statistically significant effects on the rise in mortality in recent years.

Entire article : http://theconversation.com/rapid-ri...n-early-2018-an-investigation-is-needed-93311

Infant mortality is also increasing

 

[Arnie Pye]

Infant mortality is also increasing

Yes, infant mortality got a mention in the article :

Shortly before Christmas, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reduced its projections of life expectancy for all people in the UK, rising less rapidly in future resulting in almost a year of life lost by 2041. In many areas of the country, and for poorer groups, life expectancy was already falling before 2018.


It is not just the elderly who are especially harmed. The infant mortality rates for the poorest families in the UK have risen significantly since 2011. In 1990, the UK ranked seventh best in Europe by neonatal mortality rate. Only six countries had better outcomes. By 2015, it ranked 19th.


On March 1, 2018, ONS announced that there had been “noticeable falls in female life expectancy at birth in the 20% most deprived populations in England”. And it’s not just the poor who are affected. The rise in life expectancy for better-off groups of men and women had abruptly slowed compared with the 1890-2010 norm.

 

[ScottTriGuy]

Medical error is the 3rd leading cause of death in the US. Doubt things are much different here in Canada or other 'developed' countries.

If the UK has been cutting health services there will be more 'errors' / deaths. Maybe now its the 2nd leading cause of death in the UK?

 

[MErmaid]

Medical error is the 3rd leading cause of death in the US. Doubt things are much different here in Canada or other 'developed' countries.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/22/medical-errors-third-leading-cause-of-death-in-america.html

“The third-leading cause of death in US most doctors don't want you to know about

• A recent Johns Hopkins study claims more than 250,000 people in the U.S. die every year from medical errors. Other reports claim the numbers to be as high as 440,000.
• Medical errors are the third-leading cause of death after heart disease and cancer.
• Advocates are fighting back, pushing for greater legislation for patient safety.”

.....

“Currently the CDC uses a deaths collection system that only tallies causes of death occurring from diseases, morbid conditions, and injuries," Makary stated in a letter urging the CDC to change the way it collects the nation's vital health statistics.”

 

[Arnie Pye]

I hope this gets reported sensibly in the mainstream press.

The Independent reprinted the article from my original post :

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...-health-medicine-nhs-death-rate-a8256931.html

And there have been some other references to the issue, but (mostly) not in places I would consider particularly high profile :

https://news.google.com/news/story/dciZMjHfQFSdcXMt-q0xN8D7RIxPM?ned=uk&hl=en-GB&gl=GB

One exception is the Guardian, which has concentrated on infant mortality :

https://www.theguardian.com/society...ng-infant-mortality-rate-in-england-and-wales

 

[AliceLily]

I might be a bit off topic here, excuse please.

A few years ago when my mother got very sick after a change of tablets she ended up in hospital with severe withdrawal symptoms. While visiting her I would get up every now and then and go for a walk around the ward and read information about various things put up by staff on the walls around the ward.

You can find things here that can be helpful. There was some information cautioning about falls and how to reduce the number of hosptialisations due to falls. The staff on this ward were making a point of trying to cut the incidence of falls.

This bit of information helped me when they tried to discharge Mum while she was still very unstable on her legs! I told the doctor that there was no way she could come home so weak on her legs. She could easily take a fall and end up back in hospital with broken bones. They agreed and they kept Mum in hospital a few more days and the physiotherapist worked in strengthening Mum legs . The day she was discharged she could walk fine.

Another time when Mum was in A&E I read that A&E were trying to get patients through within 6 hours. Either discharged or sent up to a specialty ward. This I think is good, because you know that a decision is going to be made within that time. I haven't had a problem with this, nor Mum. But the point with this is that I wouldn't have known about this without walking around the ward and reading the information that doctors and nurses have posted up on the walls. Having some of this extra information can help.

 

[Jonathan Edwards]

Medical error is the 3rd leading cause of death in the US. Doubt things are much different here in Canada or other 'developed' countries.

If the UK has been cutting health services there will be more 'errors' / deaths. Maybe now its the 2nd leading cause of death in the UK?

I think that is something quite different.
A medical error is when a doctor does something that causes a death that would not have happened naturally - and probably charges a few thousand dollars for the privilege.
The problem in the UK is simply that you never get to see the doctor because there is no service. The fault is either with the electorate failing to vote for paying enough tax to actually have a service or with the government pretending to provide a service when there is none. The deaths are due to natural causes. We need more doctoring, not less.

 

[Milo]

I think that is something quite different.
A medical error is when a doctor does something that causes a death that would not have happened naturally - and probably charges a few thousand dollars for the privilege.
The problem in the UK is simply that you never get to see the doctor because there is no service. The fault is either with the electorate failing to vote for paying enough tax to actually have a service or with the government pretending to provide a service when there is none. The deaths are due to natural causes. We need more doctoring, not less.

Agreed. I think the reduction in social services, in the UK is alarming. Folks are having a very tough time accessing disability payments, can no longer access healthy food. Only the sickest get health care, and it means patients are neglected. Hospital staff is overworked. There might be an increase in infection rate as result.

Scary times.

 

[Skycloud]

One exception is the Guardian, which has concentrated on infant mortality :

https://www.theguardian.com/society...ng-infant-mortality-rate-in-england-and-wales

No comments section on this. It would have been good to have posted the link to the fuller article.

Thanks @Arnie Pye