Is there any scientific evidence that PEM is caused by going over your AT threshold? Or that heart rate monitors are any use in pacing? (Please, no anecdotes of your own experiences! The thread for that is
here.)
There isn't much else to work with here than judgment and experience, because to be honest, I don't think the medical profession is able to do something like this. They technically can do this, it's a human problem, but we're dealing with humans as obstacles, so not much to do here.
There probably isn't much to go on with thresholds and this or that explanation. Pretty much all sensible advice is of a rule-of-thumb type, where it's more about keep things stable. Medicine loves to have those thresholds, like the 30 BPM with POTS where 29 is a hard cut-off. Doing hard math on soft data is never a good idea.
I personally have had several explicit experiences where it has been very revealing, where I should have paid more attention to a rising trend. But in its present state, the medical profession lacks the expertise to add anything, this all comes from patient experience and professional "supervision", as they like to call it, is mostly useless other than in confirming what is known professionally to new patients. Although really the only advice they should have should be to send people to patient organizations who would be adequately funded and supported, but that's not happening any time soon.
But the problem is over what is known professionally: almost nothing. Not quite nothing. Just enough to be a problem. Never enough to mitigate that problem. Always just enough to make everything worse without making anything better.
And this is a trend: the medical profession adds nothing at all to the conversation when it comes to chronic illness. Mostly as a choice, or at least as a consequence of poor choices. Everything is up to us, we came up with everything, and until a biomedical breakthrough occurs, it will remain so. I don't think they'll be able to come up with anything at all until we know the pathology either.