The Setpoint Trap: A New Way to Think About ME/CFS (Desmolysium.com)

The relative risks in that study look very compatible with reporting bias. Certainly nothing in the way of a major causal input. Almost all psychological research is as wooly as this and I think tells us very little. If anything it is quite a nice negative result indicating that premorbid psychological state probably isn't a big deal.

It's also studying nurses early in the pandemic, who as a group were under unusual stress and exposed to unusual health risks, so not really generalisable to broader populations.
 
So what to make of this study then? https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36069885/ - quite a strong association of pre-COVID distress and long COVID. I am aware that long COVID is not necessarily identical to ME/CFS but I think that a subset of long COVID patients could be classified as having ME/CFS.
I don’t think you can compare people with post-Covid symptoms (I think that means any symptoms at all, incl respiratory, fatigue or mental health symptoms) longer than just 4 weeks with ME/CFS. Could imagine that 90% of that population of people resolved their symptoms. I am not sure given the very vague definitions of long Covid used in 2022 and still today, what percentage of them then and now are considered to have developed ME/CFS.
 
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Welcome, @desmolysium, great to have you here. I'm so sorry your friends have been affected by long COVID or ME/CFS.

Like others, I enjoyed reading your blog, and hope you will keep thinking about ME/CFS.

But it's important not to slip into the setpoint trap of doctors, which is that we're depressed/anxious, or were depressed/anxious.

So what to make of this study then? https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36069885/ - quite a strong association of pre-COVID distress and long COVID. I am aware that long COVID is not necessarily identical to ME/CFS but I think that a subset of long COVID patients could be classified as having ME/CFS.
That study was on "post-COVID conditions":
Participants were asked, “Have you experienced any long-term COVID-19 symptoms (lasting for more than 4 weeks)?”If yes, participants were asked to endorse any COVID-19–related symptoms they experienced, including fatigue, shortness of breath or difficulty breathing, persistent cough, muscle/joint/chest pain, smell/taste problems, confusion/disorientation/brain fog, memory issues, depression/anxiety/changes in mood, headache, intermittent fever, heart palpitations, rash/blisters/welts, mouth or tongue ulcers, or other symptoms.

The cohort was older and had a higher proportion of females than any ME/CFS cohort I have seen, plus it had a hefty proportion of health care workers who were under tremendous strain during the pandemic:
96.6% female (n = 53 107), and 38.0% active health care workers (n = 20 902), with a mean (SD) age of 57.5 (13.8) years.

That means you've got different factors at play, with people who had asthma or obesity feeling vulnerable during a pandemic of a respiratory illness:
At baseline, those who had probable depression or anxiety were younger, were more likely to be active health care workers, and had a higher prevalence of asthma (Table 1). Participants very worried about COVID-19 were more likely to be female, more likely to be from racial and ethnic minority groups, and more likely to have asthma than the reference group. Compared with participants who had the least perceived stress, those in the highest quartile were younger and more likely to have asthma. Participants who had probable depression, had probable anxiety, were very worried about COVID-19, were lonely, or were in the highest quartile of perceived stress were more likely to have a BMI of 35 or greater and to be unpartnered.
and at higher risk of some post-COVID conditions that have nothing to do with ME/CFS.

The proportion of the long COVID population that fulfill ME/CFS criteria is generally about 50%. In the Wang et al. study you pointed to,
The most common symptoms were fatigue (56.0%, n = 786), smell or taste problems (44.6%, n = 626), shortness of breath (25.5%, n = 358), confusion/disorientation/brain fog (24.5%, n = 343), and memory issues (21.8%, n = 306) (eTable 3 in the Supplement).
You can't draw any conclusions about ME/CFS from an undifferentiated long COVID cohort.

According to the prospective study by Jason (a psychologist with ME/CFS) & Katz that @jnmaciuch already linked to above:
We did not find any significant differences between those who developed ME/CFS versus those who recovered, on pre-illness baseline differences in stress, coping, anxiety, or depression. We did find baseline pre-illness complaints of fatigue and deficiencies in IL-5 and IL-13 in the group that went on to develop severe ME/CFS versus those who recovered.

Have you come across prospective studies of ME/CFS post-COVID that suggest higher pre-morbid depression or anxiety than well-matched controls where other confounders are controlled?
 
The cohort was older and had a higher proportion of females than any ME/CFS cohort I have seen
The Wang et al. post-COVD conditions cohort was
96.6% female (n = 53 107)...with a mean (SD) age of 57.5 (13.8) years.

In Collin & Crawley's study of 11 NHS specialist ME/CFS clinics, the median age of those providing follow-up data was 42 and the proportion of females 82%. They had been sick for a median 26 months at baseline.

(Those who did not provide follow-up data were younger and sick for longer: average age was 39, 80% were female, sick for 36 months.)

See table S1 under Additional Files.
 
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Hi @desmolysium

Thanks for joining, good to have you here!

I was only able to skim your article
From Severe Long-COVID to Ironman Training in 18 Months
but I wanted to ask, if you are aware that around 80% of pwLC recover within the first year?

While I really appreciate how you share the different medications you’ve tried and its perceived effects, I think it is very important to set your n=1 experience into relation to the bigger picture.

Otherwise, your approach does not gain much in comparison to a hospital that plays the ostrich game by refusing to diagnose Long Covid at all because:
…the treatments carried out so far generally show continuous improvement, so that most children no longer required further care after one year at the latest. [Source]
 
Very interesting thanks. The "loss of a specific subset of key neurons" is what I mentioned in my article. This is an uncomfortable possibility. There is also preliminary evidence in rodent studies that in diet-induced obesity POMC neurons die (the key subset of neurons that controls energy homeostasis) because of an influx of excessive levels of satiety signals and/or inflammation, which could at least contribute to the permanent setpoint shift in obesity. Is it possible that some neurons in the hypothalamus and/or brain stem are driven into excitotoxicity (or other forms of toxicity) from the infection itself and/or cellular or humoral immune response? But great article, thanks for sharing.
ah sorry, I was linking more to the discussion in the thread rather than the article itself. Later in the thread there’s discussion of a similar finding in narcolepsy, which was found to be due to epigenetic silencing of the CRH gene rather than death of the neurons. From genetics and epidemiology there seems to be a decent suggestion that type I narcolepsy is immune mediated as well.

Biologically it seems more feasible for specific genes like CRH or orexin to get suppressed epigenetically than for those and only those neurons to die off, especially when that part of the hypothalamus is a mosaic of different types of neurons and others in that mosaic seem to be functioning normally in both narcolepsy and ME/CFS.
 
The studies that have reported a rate of 50 % are based on referrals to specialist clinics. Those groups are not at all representative for LC as a whole.
Agree, but it's the best figure we have at present to make the point that you cannot conclude anything about ME/CFS from a study on "post-COVID conditions", in which only half reported fatigue. Have there been community-based studies?
 
Agree, but it's the best figure we have at present to make the point that you cannot conclude anything about ME/CFS from a study on "post-COVID conditions", in which only half reported fatigue.
If they are the best we’ve got, we know nothing.

LC is defined as having any symptoms following covid. So only half reporting fatigue might be right. The category is too vague to be useful.
Have there been community-based studies?
i don’t know
 
So what to make of this study then? https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36069885/ - quite a strong association of pre-COVID distress and long COVID. I am aware that long COVID is not necessarily identical to ME/CFS but I think that a subset of long COVID patients could be classified as having ME/CFS.
This Lifelines study follows people for many years prior to an infection and found no significant association with psychiatric disorders and Long-Covid.


“In contrast to previous studies, older age,9,10 smoking,9,10 cardiovascular disease, lung disease and psychiatric disorder9 were not significantly associated with post-COVID-19 condition, although point estimates for cardiovascular disease, lung disease and psychiatric disorder were increased.”
 
The idea for it just came a couple of weeks ago, did not know that or whether it was raised before.
I recall setpoint discussions back in the 90s, long before forums like this. In my own case I was interested in strange attractors, or chaos theory, spiraling around a zone or region, rather than a fixed set point. However I am not aware that these concepts had any major development over time.
 
I often question whether there is a very early stage of ME/CFS because some symptoms remind me of what I experienced as a child. There could be points along the way.
 
Also I can kind of see why doctors might think they're seeing 'anxiety' when a patient is breathing erratically or seems to be distracted or finding it hard to organise their words, when actually it's physical distress and/or cognitive impairment. Or they think they're seeing 'depression' when it's actually exhaustion.
Yes. I never like visiting the doctor when very ill or needing them to sign forms for the benefit. It's highly stressful. Especially when you know they have no understanding of how sick you are or how severe ME can get.
 
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