Preprint Shear Stress Tolerance Threshold, eNOS Uncoupling, and the Two-Threshold Model of [PEM] in [LC]: A Mechanistic Hypothesis [...], 2026, Karipidis et al

In other words, the hypothesis is not “PEM = endothelium,” but whether endothelial redox dysfunction could interact with immune, autonomic, and CNS pathways in some phenotypes.

OK, I see the argument. My worry is that ideas like this invoking 'redox' have been fashionable at least since the 1980s and to my mind never got us anywhere. Something very specific is going wrong in Long Covid and in ME/CFS. Redox just seems far too generic to be helpful in our search. But I have been wrong before.
 
OK, so it isn't endotheliitis.


You mean the fashion of the Twitterati has gone that way I guess. I am afraid I am a rather old hand at biomedical scepticism. I have read more bullshit than you have had hot dinners!


Well if you cannot detect any hypoperfusion, how do you know it is there? Hypoperfusion makes your skin change colour. That doesn't happen in Long Covid. I am afraid I dont believe a word of it. Pathobiology that isn't there isn't there.



I know all about shear forces and NO and all that but I don't see any dots joining up here I am afraid. And if you want to join dots I think you would do better to avoid pseudoconcepts like endotheliitis. Biomedical science, like Guness, has always had a bit of useless froth on the top. Unfortunately, these days, my impression is that the froth fills most of the glass. I am only interested in the black stuff.
Thank you, I genuinely appreciate your skepticism.

I agree that a hypothesis must never be confused with proof, and perhaps I expressed some points too strongly in discussion. My intention is not to claim established vascular pathology where it has not been definitively demonstrated.

Rather, the model attempts to integrate existing strands of literature endothelial dysfunction, impaired oxygen extraction, microvascular findings, oxidative stress, autonomic abnormalities, and post-exertional physiology into a testable framework for a subgroup of patients.

It may prove incomplete or incorrect, but that is exactly why it was framed with falsifiable predictions rather than conclusions.
I appreciate your challenge to keep speculation separate from evidence.
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I have read the abstract and am puzzling away at the words used, specifically stress, laminar shear, tolerance threshold and mechanistic. It sounds like things I learnt in physics rather than biology. Can someone help me visualise on what scale these forces are acting? Atom, molecule, organelle, cell, tissue? Are these physical phenomena or metaphors?

As you can see, I'm no expert. In fact I haven't a clue what this hypotheses is about. Which is frustrating.
Fair question. These are real fluid forces acting on the cells that line blood vessels (the endothelium).

When blood flow is smooth and steady (laminar flow), it usually sends healthy signals that help vessels function normally. When flow becomes disturbed, stop-start, or highly variable, different stress signals can be activated.

The hypothesis asks whether, in some Long COVID patients, the endothelial response to these flow patterns may be impaired meaning some movement patterns could be better tolerated than others.

In simple terms: how blood moves may matter, not only how much effort is performed
| DOI |
 
When blood flow is smooth and steady (laminar flow), it usually sends healthy signals that help vessels function normally. When flow becomes disturbed, stop-start, or highly variable, different stress signals can be activated.
I take it this is mostly thought about in the context of muscle blood vessels during activity? Has this kind of thing been looked at in cerebral blood vessels at rest? (Or is that even possible?)
 
Fair question. These are real fluid forces acting on the cells that line blood vessels (the endothelium).

When blood flow is smooth and steady (laminar flow), it usually sends healthy signals that help vessels function normally. When flow becomes disturbed, stop-start, or highly variable, different stress signals can be activated.

The hypothesis asks whether, in some Long COVID patients, the endothelial response to these flow patterns may be impaired meaning some movement patterns could be better tolerated than others.

In simple terms: how blood moves may matter, not only how much effort is performed
| DOI |
Thank you, that's much clearer.
 

Replicative endothelial cell senescence may lead to endothelial dysfunction by increasing the BH2/BH4 ratio induced by oxidative stress​


@YiannisK, I am not adding this to imply that it is involved in your hypothesis, but only because in reading the preprint I automatically started to wonder if there is something I could do to counter the issue.

Also, may I ask if the endothelial issues you are investigating would affect neurotransmitters such as dopamine or serotonin, and would that in turn affect dysautonomia?

I did see blood brain barrier come up while looking at different aspects of the endothelial dysfunction!

Do you think glycocalyx damage is involved in the shear stress issue?
But I guess if the symptoms can vary depending on amount of expenditure of energy, the cause would have to be something that can vary, too, and not something that does not vary (glycocalyx damage)?

Thank you for your work for those of us who are suffering.
And thank you for taking the time to explain to us what you are working on.
 
@YiannisK welcome.

I will need to take more time to understand the hypothesis, but do welcome that this hypothesis provides testable predictions. Hopefully even if testing these predictions produces negative results, this advances our understanding of PEM and helps develop research tools to evaluate PEM.

It is great that more researchers are seriously thinking about the potential mechanisms involved in PEM.
 
@YiannisK welcome.

I will need to take more time to understand the hypothesis, but do welcome that this hypothesis provides testable predictions. Hopefully even if testing these predictions produces negative results, this advances our understanding of PEM and helps develop research tools to evaluate PEM.

It is great that more researchers are seriously thinking about the potential mechanisms involved in PEM.
Thank you for your thoughtful response.

That was exactly the intention behind this hypothesis: to place a structured, testable model into the hands of the scientific community for critique, refinement, or rejection based on evidence. Progress often begins with questions that can be tested.

It has already been valuable to see experienced researchers engage critically, challenge assumptions, and add perspectives. Regardless of the final outcome, that kind of discussion helps move the field forward and improves our collective understanding of PEM.

From here, patience and careful research are what matter most. As both a patient living with this condition and someone trying to contribute constructively, I have learned how essential both can be.

Thank you again for the open-mindedness and constructive spirit.
 
@YiannisK welcome.

I will need to take more time to understand the hypothesis, but do welcome that this hypothesis provides testable predictions. Hopefully even if testing these predictions produces negative results, this advances our understanding of PEM and helps develop research tools to evaluate PEM.

It is great that more researchers are seriously thinking about the potential mechanisms involved in PEM.
Thank you for your thoughtful and encouraging response.

That was exactly the intention behind this hypothesis: to offer a structured, testable framework that can be challenged, refined, or rejected based on evidence.

As someone experiencing this illness personally, while also trying to contribute constructively, I deeply appreciate that spirit of open inquiry.

Thank you again.
 

Replicative endothelial cell senescence may lead to endothelial dysfunction by increasing the BH2/BH4 ratio induced by oxidative stress​


@YiannisK, I am not adding this to imply that it is involved in your hypothesis, but only because in reading the preprint I automatically started to wonder if there is something I could do to counter the issue.

Also, may I ask if the endothelial issues you are investigating would affect neurotransmitters such as dopamine or serotonin, and would that in turn affect dysautonomia?

I did see blood brain barrier come up while looking at different aspects of the endothelial dysfunction!

Do you think glycocalyx damage is involved in the shear stress issue?
But I guess if the symptoms can vary depending on amount of expenditure of energy, the cause would have to be something that can vary, too, and not something that does not vary (glycocalyx damage)?

Thank you for your work for those of us who are suffering.
And thank you for taking the time to explain to us what you are working on.
Thank you for the thoughtful comments and for sharing those papers.

Yes both endothelial senescence and glycocalyx injury are highly relevant possibilities and could fit within the broader framework of endothelial vulnerability discussed in the hypothesis.

The glycocalyx, in particular, may be important because it is dynamic: it can worsen or partially recover depending on inflammation, flow patterns, and metabolic stress, which could help explain symptom fluctuation.

Regarding neurotransmitters and dysautonomia, that is certainly plausible indirectly through microcirculatory, autonomic, and blood-brain barrier pathways, but it remains an open question rather than something our model claims directly.

Thank you again for the kind words and for engaging so thoughtfully.

I take it this is mostly thought about in the context of muscle blood vessels during activity? Has this kind of thing been looked at in cerebral blood vessels at rest? (Or is that even possible?)

Good question. Most discussion is indeed around skeletal muscle and exercise, because that is where demand changes sharply and PEM is often triggered.

However, cerebral vessels are also highly flow-sensitive. At rest, regulation is more tightly controlled through autoregulation, CO₂ levels, autonomic input, and endothelial signaling rather than large exercise-driven surges.

There is already literature in Long COVID and ME/CFS suggesting altered cerebral blood flow and orthostatic intolerance in some patients, so it is reasonable to ask whether endothelial or microvascular signaling could contribute there as well.

That said, our current hypothesis was focused mainly on exertional peripheral vascular responses, not as a full explanation of cerebral symptoms.
 
Is there a role for purinergic signalling in this hypothesis?

I have long been interested in the idea that under shear stress red blood cells are mechanically squeezed in a way that emits ATP.


It always struck me that shear stress that did not resolve could create an ATP shortage in red blood cells, an oversupply of ATP downstream metabolites (e.g. adenosine) in circulation, and also a state of immune hyper surveillance, seeing as though extracellular ATP is perceived as a damage signal.

Does this fit into your hypothesis?
 
There Hypotheses are actually measuring exertion intolerance as they are expecting they wont be fully completed. From the very beginning they are showing they do not understand how the disease is described as working and have a protocol that will failure to measure it. They seem to be doing and trying to measure it as part of phase 1 to then set up phase 2 to attempt to measure PEM. There are serious ethical concerns here with intentionally inducing PEM in severe and very severe patients.
 
Thank you for your thoughtful response.

That was exactly the intention behind this hypothesis: to place a structured, testable model into the hands of the scientific community for critique, refinement, or rejection based on evidence. Progress often begins with questions that can be tested.

It has already been valuable to see experienced researchers engage critically, challenge assumptions, and add perspectives. Regardless of the final outcome, that kind of discussion helps move the field forward and improves our collective understanding of PEM.

From here, patience and careful research are what matter most. As both a patient living with this condition and someone trying to contribute constructively, I have learned how essential both can be.

Thank you again for the open-mindedness and constructive spirit.
@YiannisK, I am sorry to hear that you also have this condition. May I ask, do you have all the symptoms and bio markers of the specific subset that your paper deals with?
 
Is there a role for purinergic signalling in this hypothesis?

I have long been interested in the idea that under shear stress red blood cells are mechanically squeezed in a way that emits ATP.


It always struck me that shear stress that did not resolve could create an ATP shortage in red blood cells, an oversupply of ATP downstream metabolites (e.g. adenosine) in circulation, and also a state of immune hyper surveillance, seeing as though extracellular ATP is perceived as a damage signal.

Does this fit into your hypothesis?
purinergic signalling could plausibly intersect with the model, particularly as a mediator between mechanical stress and vascular inflammatory responses. Purinergic pathways were not explicitly included in our current hypothesis, which focused more narrowly on eNOS coupling, redox balance, and shear-mediated endothelial responses. But they could certainly represent an upstream modulator or parallel pathway worth investigating

@YiannisK, I am sorry to hear that you also have this condition. May I ask, do you have all the symptoms and bio markers of the specific subset that your paper deals with?

Yes broadly speaking, my personal clinical picture overlaps with the subgroup discussed in the hypothesis.

I was a healthy endurance runner before infection, with strong aerobic fitness and no meaningful prior limitations. After an initially mild acute COVID illness, I gradually developed the now-familiar Long COVID pattern: reduced exercise tolerance, disproportionate heart-rate response, decline in performance capacity, and eventually a clear post-exertional crash consistent with PEM.

Over time this was accompanied by fatigue, cognitive symptoms, chest tightness, and marked fluctuation based on exertion level. Standard cardiac and routine diagnostic investigations have been largely reassuring, which many patients will recognize, despite significant functional limitation.

The positive side is that I am no longer in the severe early phase. Through careful pacing and gradual management staying consistently below the PEM trigger threshold while maintaining gentle activity just above what I describe as the lower shear-stress threshold I currently function at a partial but meaningful level compared with my pre-illness baseline.

To be clear, I do not mean conventional graded exercise therapy. I mean carefully regulated, low-intensity movement intended to preserve vascular signaling without provoking delayed worsening.

In practical terms, I do not focus on heart rate alone, since many patients show rapid pulse increases with even minor activity. Instead, I watch the relationship between walking pace, heart rate, and breathing rate together. For example, if a steady pace produces stable values over several minutes, I treat that as a temporary baseline. If later the same pace begins to require a progressively higher heart rate and faster breathing, disproportionate to workload, I reduce intensity until those variables stabilize again.

Heart rate itself is not necessarily the enemy. The cardiovascular system is highly adaptive, and an increased pulse may simply reflect the body attempting to maintain perfusion, oxygen delivery, or autonomic balance under stress. In that sense, the rise in heart rate may be compensatory rather than pathological.

What matters more, in my view, is when the same workload begins to require progressively higher heart rate and breathing effort, suggesting declining efficiency or rising physiological strain. That distinction may be more informative than the absolute number itself.

Many explanations have been proposed for this phenomenon. Our hypothesis offers one possible framework. Time and proper testing will determine whether it is supported or rejected.

This is only an individual observation, not proof, but it strongly influenced the conceptual framework of the hypothesis.

There Hypotheses are actually measuring exertion intolerance as they are expecting they wont be fully completed. From the very beginning they are showing they do not understand how the disease is described as working and have a protocol that will failure to measure it. They seem to be doing and trying to measure it as part of phase 1 to then set up phase 2 to attempt to measure PEM. There are serious ethical concerns here with intentionally inducing PEM in severe and very severe patients.
I understand the ethical concern, and it is an important one. No severe or very severe patient should ever be pushed into PEM for speculative research purposes. Patient safety must always come first.

However, I think there are two separate issues here:

  1. Mechanism discovery
    Before any provocation studies, there is already substantial room to investigate resting and low-burden abnormalities: microcirculatory dysfunction, endothelial biomarkers, impaired oxygen extraction, autonomic instability, cerebral or peripheral perfusion changes, wearable physiology patterns, and post-viral vascular responses.
  2. Carefully designed validation
    If a hypothesis eventually requires exertional testing, that should only occur under strict ethical safeguards, in mild/moderate volunteers with informed consent, stopping rules, rescue protocols, and the least harmful stimulus possible.
My own view is that many patients are dismissed because standard tests (routine imaging, conventional stress tests, basic labs) can appear normal while functional vascular or autonomic problems remain invisible to those tools. That gap is exactly why better biomarkers and safer assessment methods are needed.

So I agree ethics matter deeply. But avoiding harmful provocation should motivate smarter research design, not abandonment of investigation.
 
Do you have the funding, protocol and ethics approval to test your hypothesis?
At present, no we do not have dedicated funding, a formal clinical protocol, or ethics approval. This is a mechanistic hypothesis paper, not an interventional trial.

Its purpose is to place a testable framework into the scientific arena so that appropriately resourced academic groups can critique, refine, reject, or formally investigate it through proper channels.

That is often how science progresses: ideas may come from outside major funding structures, but validation must come through established institutions with methodology, ethics oversight, and patient safeguards.

It is also true that funding systems naturally favor lower-risk, conventional questions with clearer endpoints. More complex or unconventional hypotheses often need time before attracting interest.

As a patient living with this condition, I remain confident that once the hypothesis is publicly available, others with the expertise and resources to test it may choose to engage. Whether the model is disproven or supported, patients benefit either way because both outcomes move us closer to understanding PEM.
 
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