Prevalence and early-life determinants of mid-life multimorbidity: evidence from the 1970 British birth cohort, 2021, Gondeck et al

Abstract

Background
We sought to: [1] estimate the prevalence of multimorbidity at age 46–48 in the 1970 British Cohort Study—a nationally representative sample in mid-life; and [2] examine the association between early-life characteristics and mid-life multimorbidity.

Method
A prospective longitudinal birth cohort of a community-based sample from the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70). Participants included all surviving children born in mainland Britain in a single week in April 1970; the analytical sample included those with valid data at age 46–48 (n = 7951; 2016–2018). The main outcome was multimorbidity, which was operationalised as a binary indicator of two or more long-term health conditions where at least one of these conditions was of physical health. It also included symptom complexes (e.g., chronic pain), sensory impairments, and alcohol problems.

Results
Prevalence of mid-life multimorbidity was 33.8% at age 46–48. Those with fathers from unskilled social occupational class (vs professional) at birth had 43% higher risk of mid-life multimorbidity (risk ratio = 1.43, 95% confidence interval 1.15 to 1.77). After accounting for potential child and family confounding, an additional kilogram of birthweight was associated with 10% reduced risk of multimorbidity (risk ratio = 0.90, 95% confidence interval 0.84 to 0.96); a decrease of one body mass index point at age 10 was associated with 3% lower risk (risk ratio = 1.03, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.05); one standard deviation higher cognitive ability score at age 10 corresponded to 4% lower risk (risk ratio = 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.91 to 1.00); an increase of one internalising problem at age 16 was equated with 4% higher risk (risk ratio = 1.04, 95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.08) and of one externalising problem at age 16 with 6% higher risk (risk ratio = 1.06, 1.03 to 1.09).

Conclusion
Prevalence of multimorbidity was high in mid-life (33.8% at age 46–48) in Britain. Potentially modifiable early-life exposures, including early-life social circumstances, cognitive, physical and emotional development, were associated with elevated risk of mid-life multimorbidity.

Open access, https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-021-11291-w#Sec15

 

I've posted this mainly to highlight this table and the prevalence figure for 'Chronic fatigue syndrome' of 1.5%


from https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-021-11291-w/tables/1

 

News article about the study, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57982476

"About one in three middle-aged people has multiple chronic health issues, a long-running British study suggests.

The 1970 British Cohort Study has been periodically tracking the lives of about 17,000 people born in England, Scotland and Wales in a single week.

Nearly 8,000 of them were surveyed for the University College London work, published in journal BMC Public Health.

And 34% had two or more chronic health problems, such as high blood pressure and mental ill-health, at age 46-48."