I took part in simulated exercises to prepare my country for the practical, economic and social shock waves from rare but devastating events — volcanic eruptions that affect whole hemispheres, meteor strikes, zoonotic epidemics and other calamities. I recall a practice run for an influenza pandemic in which about 200,000 people died. It left me shattered.
We learnt what would help, but did not necessarily implement those lessons. The assessment, in many sectors of government, was that the resulting medicine was so strong that it would be spat out. Nobody likes living under a fortress mentality.
Two messages were clear. First, that we were poorly prepared. Second, that governments would quickly be called on to cover the damage. They are the insurers of last resort, even if they rarely quantify and plan for those risks. Our experience of COVID‑19 is showing just how true this is, and suggests what we should do once recovery begins.