Great analysis Karen.
@siobhanfirestone, you are right to point out that the selection criteria for the PACE trial was loose, and that it is likely that some people who didn't have ME/CFS were included, and their recovery odds may be different to a person with ME/CFS (including PEM).
Against that though is the fact that the people Karen analysed were in the group with the biggest nocebo effect. They were basically in a waitlist control, reading the newsletters about how wonderful GET and CBT were. People were incentivised to keep reporting low function in order to offered the treatments they hoped to get when they volunteered for the study. And the outcomes are subjective - if someone felt better, they might still interpret that negatively.
Another point is that it can be hard to know if you actually have ME/CFS. We've seen smart people very familiar with the ME/CFS criteria find out that they have something else that explains their symptoms (although sometimes people wonder if they have both the other conditions and ME/CFS). I know the criteria off by heart, I feel certain I experience PEM, I've shown the 'typical ME/CFS' response to a 2-day CPET. And, even so, it would not surprise me at all to find that I don't have ME/CFS, and instead have something else.
Do I think your experience is a clue for some with an ME/CFS label? Yes, possibly, and it's worth thinking about. Can we be sure that it means that some aspect of what cyclophosphamide does (or even what the combination of drugs that you had does) is curative? No, I don't think so.
I'll give you the example of my family to illustrate why some of us are hesitant. Three of us got ME/CFS in my family following what seemed to be a viral illness, at the same time. One of us essentially recovered after two years. If she had started cyclo at 20 months, when her symptoms were still serious enough to have made some people prepared to do that, the difference between feeling awful on the cyclo and the naturally recovered state after two years would have been substantial. She might have concluded that the cyclo fixed her, while having the (in her case, unnecessary) risk of cancer and infection.