Really glad you’re doing well
@siobhanfirestone , long may it last. Enjoy.
For the overall scientific discussion, I think the PACE trial’s specialist medical care only participants can give a bit of perspective on what you might expect to happen to someone with moderate ME/CFS over time without treatment that actually treats the ME/CFS. I downloaded the data when it was publicly available. Participants in the specialist medical care only group had an average of 5 sessions with a doctor specialised in ME/CFS.
Physical function scores – specifically, short form 36 physical function subscale scores – give a decent idea of how severe someone is. 100 is best; someone with a score of 100 is “not limited at all” in “Vigorous activities, such as running, lifting heavy objects, participating in strenuous sports”, and not limited at all in any of the other, easier activities either. Someone with a score of 95 is limited a little in vigorous activities but not limited at all in moderate activities “such as moving a table, pushing a vacuum cleaner, bowling, or playing golf” and not limited at all in any of the other activities in the scale e.g. walking several blocks and climbing several flights of stairs. Someone with a score of 90 is limited a lot in vigorous activities but not limited at all in moderate activities or any other activities on the scale. So they’re able for as much moderate exercise as they want but not able for running/similar.
We can use van Campen’s categories of mild ME/CFS (SF36PF 60-100),
moderate (SF36PF 30-59) and severe (SF36PF 0-29) (see table 4 in van Campen 2020:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7551321/). There’s been mention of 4000 steps and that sounds about right for moderate: 84% of van Campen’s moderate patients had step count of 3500–6250 (table 3).
The PACE trial’s specialist medical care only group had 98 patients with baseline SF36PF 30-59, i.e. 98 likely-moderate patients. If we divide the moderate category into two groups, upper moderate (baseline SF36PF 45-59) and lower moderate (baseline SF36PF 30-44), we can see how frequently people moved up to the mild or normal category (SF36PF of 60-100) after 1 year:
· Upper moderate: 59% of those with baseline SF36PF 45-59 in the PACE trial’s medical care only group improved to an SF36PF of 60-100 (mild or normal) by 1 year.
· Lower moderate: 31% of those with baseline SF36PF 30-44 in the PACE trial’s medical care only group improved to an SF36PF of 60-100 (mild or normal) by 1 year.
If we look at the whole moderate category again:
· 57% of those with baseline SF36PF 30-59 in the PACE trial’s medical care only group improved by 10 or more points on the SF36PF by 1 year. 10 or more points is frequently used as a cut-off for clinically meaningful improvement (validity debatable).
· 38% improved by 20 or more points on the SF36PF by 1 year.
· 22% improved to an SF36PF ≥ 75 at 1 yr.
· 6% improved to an SF36PF ≥ 90 at 1 yr.
It would be nice to know how these people did over time but we don’t have individual-level data for the long-term follow-up that was done. There is individual-level data at both 1 year and 2-5 years for a handful of patients who were moderate at baseline (i.e. SF36PF 30-59) and attended NHS clinics during the GET/CBT/activity management years. These are Collin & Crawley 2017’s “former” patients, data publicly available:
· 11 patients had an SF36PF≥75 at 1 year (11/103, 10.7%), 5 of whom remained at that level at 2-5 years.
· 3 patients had an SF36PF≥90 at 1 year (3/102, 2.9%), 2 of whom remained at that level at 2-5 years.
The PACE trial’s specialist medical care only participants had been ill for a median 25 months (the median for the overall trial was 32 months). Collin & Crawley’s patients above had been ill for median 36 months. These illness durations are for the groups as a whole, not for moderate patients only.
Here’s my summary, all predicated on PACE participants being reasonably representative of the ME/CFS population (not a given):
· For a person who starts off with moderate ME/CFS and has some medical attention, being able to do unlimited moderate exercise or better
one year after treatment begins is rare, but it happens for some without any treatment that you’d expect to dramatically affect ME/CFS.
· Improvement from moderate ME/CFS to a much better level of physical functioning by 1 year is not rare at all (see 38% improving by 20 or more points on the SF36PF and 22% improving to SF36PF≥75 above).
· Some improvement in physical functioning overall is the norm among moderate patients receiving some medical attention, even when that treatment would not be expected to improve physical functioning.