I don't even remember the detail but I think it may have been related to the way HLA allele rates can vary very easily between populations even if matched ethnically.
Yes, and it's a nightmare to untangle. The DecodeME analysis restricted itself to people with the white European ancestry, which simplifies things – but not a lot.
One reason why HLA analysis is so challenging – population stratification
HLA varies enormously even in White Europeans, presumably because – at different times in our history – different HLA all have protected against e.g. pandemics, and that gives you a strong selection effect, and so creates strong differences between population groups . Especially as, in the past, people were less mobile so pandemics were on a smaller scale, with less population mixing and different groups had different HLA selective pressure.
If you're white British, you have a colourful backstory. We've been invaded or conquered by Romans, Saxons, Celts,Gauls, Normans, Vikings and no doubt others I have forgotten. Plus more recent European immigration. And quite a lot of Irish immigration (thanks, Dad). And there will have been plenty pre-Roman action as well.
A good measure of how much of a problem this is genomic inflation (see Kitty's explanation a couple of posts down). In the final DecodeME analysis, this was something like 1.066, which is close to 1 andpretty healthy. In earlier analyses, it was higher, though identifying how to minimise the population stratification to controlled genomic inflation isn't easy. It helps that the project was set up with UK biobank as controls – it has half a million in its cohort - making tight control matching easier.. Just over half of UKB individuals were included as controls in the final analysis.
Population stratification is likely to be a big issue in other genetic studies that don't sufficiently match controls on ancestry.
DecodeME used a different, more detailed approach for its preprint HLA analysis. I think the new analysis which will be in collaboration with someone who's an expert in this area, will be different again.
Sorry, I got a bit carried away then. Congratulations, you made it to the end.