Excess all-cause mortality in Norway in 2024 - White et al, 2025

Kalliope

Kalliope

Senior Member (Voting Rights)

Abstract​

Aims:​

The Norwegian Institute of Public Health calculated excess mortality for Norway in 2024 using a reference period that included 2023—a year with significant excess mortality—and concluded there was no excess mortality in 2024. This study estimates excess mortality in 2024 using only pre-pandemic years as the reference, providing a basis for identifying excess COVID-19 related mortality.

Methods:​

We estimated excess mortality in 2024 using a negative binomial model trained on 2010–2019 data. Deaths were modelled by age (0, 1–19, 20–39, 40–64, 65–79, 80–89 and 90+ years) and sex, with population offsets. Expected mortality was projected using both a conservative approach where the prediction for 2023 was carried forward to 2024 and a non-conservative linear extrapolation to 2024.

Results:​

The conservative approach estimated 2898 excess deaths (7.0%; 95% prediction interval (PI), 4.9–9.1%) in 2024. Significant excess mortality was observed in age groups 1–19 (45 deaths; 36.6% excess), 20–39 (107 deaths; 17.6% excess), 40–64 (439 deaths; 10.6% excess) and 65–79 (1631 deaths; 13.7% excess). Ages 1–39 and 40–64 accounted for approximately 5% and 15% of total excess mortality, respectively.

Conclusions:​

Persistent excess mortality from 2022 to 2024 suggests a new elevated mortality baseline and a reduction or reversal of Norway’s pre-pandemic mortality decline. Although multiple factors may contribute, given sustained excess mortality since 2022, our findings suggest that the unmitigated spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Norway since 2022 can be associated with increased mortality, particularly for those under 65.


 
The study is front news tonight on the national broadcaster NRK with comments from main author Richard Aubrey White and Preben Aavitsland from the Norwegian Institute of Public Health who disagrees with the results for the study.

Forskere: - En pågående folkehelsekrise av historiske dimensjoner

google translation: Scientists: - An ongoing public health crisis of historic dimensions

quote:

– In the period 2022–2024, we observed 11,588 more deaths than expected, when compared to the pre-pandemic trend. This is more than the number of Norwegians who died during World War II, says White.
 
According to Aavitsland, the 2024 numbers are fine because they are no higher than the 2023 numbers.

That doesn’t take into account that the 2023 numbers were far higher than they should have been according to the trends from before lockdown was ended in early 2022.

Aavitsland justifies the comparison of 2024 to trends that include 2023 because they want to look at changes in weekly trends.

There’s nothing wrong with looking at weekly numbers, but why on earth can’t you look at both?!
 
Scandinavian Journal of Public Health on Linkedin today:

What happens when we shift the lens on excess mortality?

A new study by Richard White, Anders Nygaard, Arne Søraas, Gunhild Alvik Nyborg challenges the conclusion that Norway saw no excess mortality in 2024—by using a different reference point. Instead of including 2023 (a year with significant excess deaths), researchers trained their model on pre-pandemic data (2010–2019) to estimate expected mortality.

The result? An estimated 2,898 excess deaths in 2024—7% above expected levels. Most strikingly, excess mortality was significant among younger age groups:
Ages 1–19: +36.6%
Ages 20–39: +17.6%
Ages 40–64: +10.6%
Ages 65–79: +13.7%

These findings suggest a troubling shift: a new elevated mortality baseline and a reversal of Norway’s pre-pandemic mortality decline. While multiple factors may be at play, the sustained excess deaths since 2022 point to the long-term impact of unmitigated SARS-CoV-2 spread—especially for those under 65.This study underscores the importance of how we define “normal”—and why our reference points matter when evaluating public health outcomes.
 
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