It may feel like we should all be done with Covid-19, but sadly Covid-19 is not done with us. At the moment, cases in England are rising again, with a 10% rise overall in hospital admissions and the
greatest increase in the north of England. With testing reduced, national monitoring paused, the ONS infection survey
paused since spring and only recently relaunched, we have much less data about Covid than we ever had before. We know Covid hasn’t stopped evolving, and we have a good idea about what sort of situations might result in new and dangerous mutations, but with less surveillance of emerging variants and spread, we are losing what used to be a near real-time picture of the situation.
This makes it harder to know which variants are driving the increase in cases. The latest estimates suggest there is a soup, with several variants, including some derived from XBB, which emerged last year, as well as EG5.1 (Eris) and a small amount of BA.2.86 (Pirola), both of which were identified in the past few months. It seems as though this virus is ever-changing, and as a reflection of that, new data released in the last few days shows that the so-called Pirola variant has evolved again – and
could be more immune-evasive than the XBB-derived variants.
So what drives this virus to change so much and so quickly? As viruses rapidly replicate, they are more prone to acquiring mutations. So the larger the number of infections, the more chance the virus will change. Many countries such as the UK have moved to a position of “living with the virus” without investing in testing, ventilation and infrastructure changes, and masking. Add to this that vaccine coverage and access to boosters is quite limited, and there’s a recipe for many Covid infections – and a greater likelihood of the virus changing.
