Coronavirus: Advice from ME organisations

Hip said:
'Youve probably caught several types of coronavirus in your life, as coronavirus is one of the common cold viruses. What's new is this Wuhan strain.
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That's pretty much my point though, all flu colds etc are are continuously new strains all the time.

But my question is where is the real evidence that this is more deadly than all the other strains we have seen. Just saying it kills 2 out of 100 people when we are admitting we have no idea what the upper figure is as we have not tested enough people it could well be 2 out of 1 million is not scientifically valid.

Or two out of any other denominator unevidenced claim we could make.

The whole point is that we are being told that we have no idea how many people have contracted it as it is unsymptomatic in x number of people.

Counting two bodies is easy but assuming an upper figure the "out of" is a nonsense when you are claiming that that most people are non symptomatic and we have no history of testing this new strain and we currently haven't tested enough people to know who's got it.

Just in the last month in my own circle at least five people I know got a viral flu like illness and not one of them got tested for coronavirus. None of them died therefore none of them appear as coronavirus positive samples even IF all five of them had it as the cause of their illness they have now recovered from.

We cannot possibly say it's more deadly than the flu just because we are claiming 2 out of 100 people who contract it died when we don't know how many people are likely to contract it out of the general population. As Jonathan Edwards said earlier when the flu comes out every season 10 to 20 Million People contract it almost instantaneously that is simply not a case that can be made for the strain of coronavirus. If 0.01% of people can die from contracting the regular flu that would still probably end up much more than on 2% of people contracting the coronavirus if hardly anybody is susceptible to catching that particular strain so currently all the claims being made in the media are completely scientifically bogus.

The only thing I will be isolating myself from is the fear porn.
 
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I think the real numbers can always only be estimated AFTER an epidemic/pandemic.

But there are studies, e.g. this one https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044

"Findings In this single-center case series involving 138 patients with NCIP, 26% of patients required admission to the intensive care unit and 4.3% died. Presumed human-to-human hospital-associated transmission of 2019-nCoV was suspected in 41% of patients."
 
I don't really understand your scepticism @large donner. This is a virus that produces pneumonia bad enough to require hospital care in maybe one person in seven affected. It may kill as many as one in fifty and maybe more because the death figures ahave to be compared with the diagnosis figures maybe two weeks before. That looks to me where the MRC have got the 18% death rate from , which is hugely greater than flu - maybe as much as 180 times greater.

And the situation with flu doesn't matter anyway, for the reason I gave. There may be no point in trying to contain flu where there is a point in containing the new coronavirus because it may be feasible.

I have absolutely no problem with taking a test if a contact and not ill. I am also absolutely happy with legally enforced quarantining. People may not be aware that the only reason TB is no longer rife in Western countries is the legally enforceable quarantining that was put in place around a hundred years ago. It was not the drugs - they came later. The problem in China is not totalitarian enforcement but incompetent slowness to get the enforcement in place. I agree with Kekule that flights from China should have been blocked to Europe by now.

The situation with the test has no comparison to XMRV, which was just a contamination in some lab culture bottles. PCR testing for viruses of this sort is routine and totally reliable. Coronaviruses have been known for decades. Some cause common colds. The variation in the RNAs is well documented. The testing is as reliable as diagnosing haemophilia or identifying criminals with DNA. The XMRV testing done by the competent scientists who came in and sorted it out was entirely reliable and pinpointed the source of the virus by tracing specific mutations.

I cannot see any reason to think anyone is fear mongering if there is maybe a one in five to one in ten chance of each of us ending up in hospital with pneumonia if spread is not contained. The real problem I see is commercial interests making the mistake of thinking that it will cost them less to allow free movement now. It seems pretty certain that if spread worsens the cost to commerce will be far far greater because at some point lock down will be used world wide.
 
@Jonathan Edwards

So have you taken the test already to see if you are a carrier and non symptomatic?

It will be too late if you get the symptoms because then presumably you will have spread it.

Why hasn't the government here rolled out compulsory testing for all?

Why dont we have road blocks and drone patrols like they do in China over the coronavirus.

If the best practice is prevention what are we waiting for.

I am aware that any given virus has the potential to spread on mass and be deadly and that we have to have precautions for that threat, however my whole point is to point out the sheer lack of critical thinking in the media and also the scientific community over the numerous reasons how this deadly virus narrative has come to being spread in a fear porn mode that is way beyond the evidence base?

It seems therefore that the "deadly virus" narrative simply isn't believed by the scientific community and the government here as much as it is by the media in the UK.

If it is they are certainly not acting on it here in the sense that it is now feared to it have spread outside of China.

We are just being told to wash our hands and use tissues yet shouldn't we have drone patrols to keep people indoors and be building hospital camps to get ahead of the issue instead of waiting for it to get to the level it is in China?

The point is that there is such obvious contradiction in the narrative we are getting and when one looks beneath the claims they dont hold up.

One thing is for sure and that is that in China the government have implemented some extreme controls on the freedom of movement in line with previous types of control policies they favour in China and also recently in Hong Kong.

Yet in the rest of the world that hasn't happened?

This is happening in a backdrop of complete ongoing scientific contradiction.
 
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large donner said:
It seems therefore that the "deadly virus" narrative simply isn't believed by the scientific community and the government here as much as it is in the media in the UK.
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There would be no point testing me for virus now. My only likely contact was last night with some mask-wearing people from a Beijing flight. If a was infected I would not have detectable virus for a few days almost certainly.

But I agree that not everyone is getting this right. I would score as follows, out of dix.

Journalists: Nul points.
Government: Deux points
Government advisor scientists: Trois points minus deux points (For toadying.) = un point.
Independent scientists in the field (Kekule and my nephew) neuf points.

I cannot fault Kekule. He is completely logical and sticks to a most likely interpretation of the evidence. This is not a situation where you look for scientific proof with p values. It is a situation where you go for a range of most likely scenarios in the context of their implications.
 
Jonathan Edwards said:
There would be no point testing me for virus now. My only likely contact was last night with some mask-wearing people from a Beijing flight. If a was infected I would not have detectable virus for a few days almost certainly.
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I know I am being a pain but now I am worried that you may have it in a few days as you came into contact with some Chinese people last night as you said. So presumably you will take the test in a few days?

:sneaky:


Surely you don't want to leave it until its too late and you have spread it?

Im sending a drone to your house to watch you right now. :whistle:

Ah one last thing if you test positive will you ask for a second opinion before being locked up for two weeks knowing all about false positives and all that and being a scientist and all that?
 
large donner said:
Ah one last thing if you test positive will you ask for a second opinion before being locked up for two weeks knowing all about false positives and all that and being a scientist and all that?
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Don't worry, my wife and I went shopping this afternoon for the provisions we need and we will be pretty much self-isolating anyway.

I think it very unlikely that there are any false positives for a specific RNA assay. This isn't like an antibody or T cell response test where normal and abnormal are bound to overlap. It is a bit like reading a bar code - either it reads off as cox apples at £1.40 a pound or King Edward potatoes at £1.60. You don't get a lot of false positives in a supermarket.
 
Jonathan Edwards said:
Don't worry, my wife and I went shopping this afternoon for the provisions we need and we will be pretty much self-isolating anyway.

I think it very unlikely that there are any false positives for a specific RNA assay. This isn't like an antibody or T cell response test where normal and abnormal are bound to overlap. It is a bit like reading a bar code - either it reads off as cox apples at £1.40 a pound or King Edward potatoes at £1.60. You don't get a lot of false positives in a supermarket.
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You are definitely not using the self checkout in that case.

I know of one "false positive" for coronavirus however.

Its a genuine story via my sister. A college of hers had a flu like illness last week and was genuinely worried that she had had a Chinese takeaway the night before.

That's evidence of the effects of fear porn.
 
Jonathan Edwards said:
1. Never touch your face or mouth unless you are washing it with soap. This sounds draconian but it may be the single most important thing not to do. Even if it is not essential now it is worth practicing. Rub an itch with a shoulder or sleeve, not your hand. Wear gloves outdoors if you have them.
2. Wash hands with soap and water whenever you are changing your activities -i.e. going out, coming in, preparing food, answering the door, etc
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I do all these routinely anyway, have done since I was educated 5yrs ago when my mum was having chemo. Thanks for the tip about stocking up though - I hadn't thought of that. It will be tins of stuff for me as I cant cook but am going over to beef up my groceries delivery now.

ETA @Jonathan Edwards I would like to quote your post containing the above points (+ point 3), on facebook, for the benefit of my friends/family who are not members here. Would that be ok with you please?

Invisible Woman said:
Yuck! Coronavirus aside I don't think it would be unreasonable to request they wash their hands or use a hand sanitizer when they come into your home. Maybe have a bottle of the stuff on the hall table?
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Everyone who comes into my home has to wash their hands as the first thing they do. Occasionally people are funny about it. I don't care.
 
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JemPD said:
@Jonathan Edwards I would like to quote your post containing the above points (+ point 3), on facebook, for the benefit of my friends/family who are not members here. Would that be ok with you please?
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OK with me but I might get worried that if it goes on Facebook all the supermarkets will have empty shelves by tomorrow lunchtime! Fortunately we stocked up this afternoon.;)
 
Since reading the post saying to avoid touching our faces and thinking "why not", I have touched my face several times.

Oh well, at least ME means pretty much self isolating anyway, and apparently a hypervigilant immune system that will probably kill this virus dead right away.
 
large donner said:
We cannot possibly say it's more deadly than the flu just because we are claiming 2 out of 100 people who contract it died when we don't know how many people are likely to contract it out of the general population.
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I don't think it would be a good idea for governments just to relax, and not bother to take concerted action against viral spread, just because the exact death rate has not been finalized.

No doubt in the coming months, we will have much more accurate figures for the death rate. However, if governments wait until then to respond, the number of infected people will have grown so substantially that governments containment measures might then be pointless to apply. This is a problem that grows exponentially the longer you leave it.

Don't forget that this is not the first time we have had deadly coronavirus outbreaks in recent years. We had the 2003 SARS coronavirus outbreak in China, and the 2012 MERS coronavirus outbreak in Saudi Arabia, which had death rates of 15% and 35% respectively. So if they had not been contained by concerted action, tens or hundreds of millions could have died globally.

The Wuhan coronavirus has 80% genomic similarity to the SARS coronavirus. They are close cousins.



Death and hospital overload are not the only potential problems of the Wuhan virus: in the case of SARS, one year after their infection, many of the survivors had post-viral fatigue, with 17% having post-viral fatigue so severe it prevented them from going to work. That corresponds to moderate or severe ME/CFS. Ref: here

I am not sure if any long-term follow up studies were conducted, to see if the fatigue abated after a few years, or whether it remained as a permanent ME/CFS-like illness. If the latter, and if the Wuhan coronavirus also triggers many cases of post-viral fatigue, it will not just be death we have to worry about, but possibly millions if not billions of people developing ME/CFS.

On the plus side, if a billion people were suddenly hit with ME/CFS as a result of a Wuhan virus pandemic, I bet that would prompt a lot more research into this illness!
 
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large donner said:
You are definitely not using the self checkout in that case.

I know of one "false positive" for coronavirus however.

Its a genuine story via my sister. A college of hers had a flu like illness last week and was genuinely worried that she had had a Chinese takeaway the night before.

That's evidence of the effects of fear porn.
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That's not what a false positive means.
 
Jonathan Edwards said:
I agree that the media are hopeless on this but from what I have seen journalists seem to be underplaying the problem.
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I have to agree. I live in the pacific northwest (in a small city that is hours away from Seattle) and a couple my spouse and I are good friends with (they also live up the road from us) just left for Thailand yesterday where they will be spending the next 2 months (they have family there). They are both in their early 60's and are smokers. This is the exact profile of those who are at higher risk of serious complications/death from this coronavirus outbreak. A study out of Wuhan that was published in JAMA on Friday shows that being over age of 51 and/or a smoker were 2 of the most obvious risk factors in the cohort of 138 patients that were studied. Somehow I doubt that our friends are aware of this information. Also Thailand is considered one of the highest risk countries outside of China for this virus to really get going due to the enormous amount of Chinese tourists that visit there.

I personally think it is quite dumb of them to have gone thru with their travel plans. I also worry about them bringing the virus back here to our community. Seeing that I am on an immune suppressant regimen for my autoimmune diseases I am doubly worried about this outbreak. I realize that my spouse and I need to be prepared to isolate ourselves at any time. Going to make sure we have a couple months of food stores.

I hope our friends haven't made a really bad decision and that they are able to return home healthy and as planned.
 
So far as I know, they don't generally test for influenza - but what if there's an outbreak of influenza during this period of "COVID-19" concern?

I'd be surprised if there were resources available to test everyone who develops upper-respiratory symptoms in that situation, so how will they differentiate between the two? I suspect they'll ask everyone with symptoms to self-isolate, but what is the threshold for bringing someone into the hospital? If that threshold is too low, they will be overwhelmed. If it is to high, people may not get the medical support they need soon enough.
 
"
1. Never touch your face or mouth unless you are washing it with soap. This sounds draconian but it may be the single most important thing not to do. Even if it is not essential now it is worth practicing. Rub an itch with a shoulder or sleeve, not your hand. Wear gloves outdoors if you have them.
2. Wash hands with soap and water whenever...."

Excellent advice, but I'm afraid that if the habit of not touching you face and washing your hands every time before handling things you will eat is not burned it by around age eight, it won't take. I know not to do that, and still do it before I've thought otherwise.

I suspect that if we all dunked our hands with transferable UV (blacklight) reflective ink and then checked 8 hours later, there'd be a jumble of body parts, clothes and questionable surfaces lighting up when the uv light is shined on them. Except for the few who were raised properly, way back when.
 
Sisyphus said:
Excellent advice, but I'm afraid that if the habit of not touching you face and washing your hands every time before handling things you will eat is not burned it by around age eight, it won't take.
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I am not so sure. On the train back from Switzerland we watched everyone touching their faces all the time and realised we did the same. But since sharing a queue with 500 people from Beijing I have realised just how close I may be to being infected and I have not touched my face today except with my shoulder to rub an itch. I keep nearly doing so but don't. And the soap in the cloakroom is almost worn down to nothing!
 
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