I’ll tie this into a speculative explanation with redox imbalance in another message to avoid making this one too long.
I should note, the timeline for PEM changed for me when I started taking a stimulant. Pre-stimulant, the pain was less sharp and tended to occur much later. I’d get soreness and weak muscles on the way back home, but the PEM mostly consisted of a prolonged flat-out exhaustion that usually started the next day rather than a few hours after the activity.
Now for my “redox” theorizing, which I acknowledge is probably amateur as I am only just recently learning about cellular metabolism in depth. I independently came to some conclusions about insufficient activity of the malate-aspartate shuttle from trying to explain other semi-consistent findings in the literature. As it happens, my theory here actually meshes pretty well with the itaconate-shunt hypothesis from Phair and Armstrong.
If succinate dehydrogenase activity is repressed, not completely but enough to reduce levels of downstream TCA cycle metabolites, then you might end up with a limited amount of malate available in the cytosol.
The role of that malate is to shuttle H- from NADH in the cytosol and pass it off to NAD+ in the mitochondria. The ATP production of the mitochondria are going to be limited by the pumping of H- into the inner mitochondrial membrane to generate proton motor force that is then utilized by complex V. That gradient is primarily going to be limited by the availability of mitochondrial NADH that can pass the H- at complex I.
Assume that a person with ME/CFS has spent the last few days doing very little activity. Even if SDH activity, and therefore malate availability, is at (choosing a random number) 50%, they might be able to generate sufficient ATP to have generally normal bodily function.
Over time, even a sub-optimal level of malate will be able to shuttle enough H- to be stored by mitochondria NADH.
The issue comes when your activity level requires faster replenishment of that mitochondrial NADH. Going back to my doctor’s appointment example, the residual store of mitochondrial NADH may be enough to last me for 10 minutes of walking and an hour of train riding.
Fortunately, once that runs out, there are backup mechanisms to generate more TCA cycle metabolites to compensate—the GABA shunt, as mentioned in the itaconate shunt hypothesis. There’s also beta oxidation that can be relied on (I think it’s interesting to note that I tend to have the most endurance right after I eat a bagel sandwich with bacon, two eggs, and cheese).
Once those backup substrates can’t be relied upon anymore, you could also continue to generate ATP by substantially upregulating glycolysis, which can be mediated through the HPA axis stress response.
Here is where I think immune signaling plays a role, since it’s already known that shifting macrophages towards glycolysis is enough to trigger cytokine release. Furthermore, insufficient mitochondrial NADPH prevents cortisol production from being ramped up beyond a certain point.
Now as we’ve already discussed elsewhere, it’s not known for sure whether or what combination of cytokines are mediating muscle pain in e.g. viral myalgia. I’m only trying to speculate based on what little is known—this part might have to be reworked as new information comes to light.
Crucially all those backups are not as efficient towards restoring redox balance, and will only last a finite amount of time. When I finally crash, I’d be left with a massively skewed redox balance, and my mechanism for recovering that balance through malate shuttling is already being suppressed.
Couple that with macrophage (or other immune cell) activation with insufficient circulating cortisol levels to counteract it (not pathologically insufficient at steady state, just unable to be ramped up to counteract cytokine signaling) and you might have some runaway cytokine signaling explaining days-long muscle pain and stiffness.
Some additional evidence I have in favor of this comes from my experiences with a malic acid (dietary form of malate) supplement, which immediately gave me the ability to walk nearly 2 hours with only the mild soreness and tiredness that can be expected from limited physical activity up to this point.
The only time ive experienced PEM since starting that supplement has been when I let it wear off after 8 hours and I was still in the middle of activity. Even in that case when i started to feel the muscle pain and weakness characteristic of PEM, it was actually completely reversed when i took another malic acid once i got home