Lasting Impacts: COVID-19 Infections and Their Effects on Labor Supply and Disability Insurance, 2026, Möhlmann et al. [data from The Netherlands]

[abakingpainter]

Lasting Impacts: COVID-19 Infections and Their Effects on Labor Supply and Disability Insurance

Spoiler: authors

Jan Möhlmann, Timo Verlaat, Benedikt Vogt

January 29th, 2026

Abstract
We estimate the causal effects of a COVID-19 infection on hours worked and disability insurance (DI) take-up. Linking Dutch administrative data on over five million individuals’ PCR tests to labor market records spanning 2020–2023, we apply a differences-in-differences design, following individuals which tested negative and positive at the same time. A COVID-19 infection causes a 40 percent decline in hours worked within two weeks of infection and a nearly 6 percent increase in DI take-up two years later. This implies that 0.24 percent of the infected working-age population is at least partially incapable of working two years after infection.

Keywords: Long COVID, post COVID, COVID-19, labor supply, disability, the Netherlands
DOi | PDF

A publication from the Dutch governmental organization Centraal Planbureau (CPB), bureau for economic policy analysis.

 

[abakingpainter]

"We estimate the causal effects of a COVID-19 infection on hours worked and disability insurance (DI) take-up. Linking Dutch administrative data on over five million individuals’ PCR tests to labor market records spanning 2020–2023, we apply a differences-in-differences design, following individuals which tested negative and positive at the same time.

A COVID-19 infection causes a 40 percent decline in hours worked within two weeks of infection and a nearly 6 percent increase in DI take-up two years later. This implies that 0.24 percent of the infected working-age population is at least partially incapable of working two years after infection."

"We obtain two main findings. First, hours worked decline by up to 40% in the weeks following a positive test, but fully recover within one month. Second, the probability of receiving DI benefits increases by 0.18 percentage points two years post-infection, a relative increase of 5.8% compared to the baseline take-up rate. This likely understates the true long-term labor market impact, as only employees are eligible for DI benefits (not students, self-employed, or inactive individuals). After correcting for DI eligibility, we estimate that 0.24% of the infected working-age population is at least partially incapable of working two years after infection during the period June 2020 to August 2021. This excludes individuals who recover within the two-year waiting period."

 

[rvallee]

This implies that 0.24 percent of the infected working-age population is at least partially incapable of working two years after infection

It actually implies that at least 0.24% does, and since most cases are rejected, it is likely several times that. This is known. Ignoring this is intentional. Most of the data on this are not recorded on purpose. That purpose is very clear: deny, reject and cover up. And despite all of this, this is still very disruptive, far more expensive than doing something effective about it.

But doing nothing, or something ineffective, is the only thought that's allowed. Can't have disruptive thoughts, might need reeducation.