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I hope you appreciate I was not advocating it but playing devil's advocate. And that in reality the thought experiment bit of it would never happen on its own in reality anyway - the bit where no one moves etc. I was wondering if the scenario being adopted was to lean slightly more towards...

Yes. It's not simply about the model, but the dry run scenario being adopted. I've been thinking about this. My following comments are based purely on the possible spread mechanisms, and ignore the humanitarian aspects (because conflating the two just confuses things), but be assured I fully...

Yes, and in your previous post it highlights another significant risk factor, if a lot of people converge onto public transport as they travel to and from.

Post deleted to avoid offence, which was never my intention.

Yes I can see that airborne transmission is less likely in the open air, but I wonder if they factor in things like public toilets, cafes, bars, etc.

I would like to know where Fergus Walsh got his info from that Covid-19 is different to normal flu in that it is not spread more by large gatherings.

Yes I agree. I also wonder if this is why many people reporting symptoms are not being tested. No test = no entry in the statistics. Mods: This is primarily a public health post, not a political statement!

But he seemed to be saying they know that it does with normal flu, so why would it be any different if the contagion mechanisms are similar? ETA: As my wife just said, it's not just that there will be a larger number of people in such a gathering with the virus, but that any one person who has...

Just heard Furgus Walsh reporting that the UK government insists it is following best scientific advice, and that unlike normal flu, the spread of Covid-19 is apparently not increased by mass gatherings, which is why they are not prohibiting such gatherings. This sounds like BS to me, but not...

For short power cuts you could maybe consider using a vacuum flask or two to fill up with hot drink, soup, while power on.

I would think a cluster is akin to a small area of fire in a forest, that has nonetheless taken hold and is now independent of whatever originally kindled it, and is now self sustaining, so likely to rapidly spread if not contained very urgently. Even small delays in doing so may well allow...

"Imagine" is probably the operative word.

I think it must mean number of cases diagnosed per day. If it was cumulative then it could flat line but never go back down, so to my way of looking at it could never 'peak' though some might nonetheless report it that way I suppose. But I'm no expert on this!

This sounds to be a crucial part of how the South Koreans seem to have got on top of things:

That's a 20% increase in a single day. If that continues that would be one hell of an exponential increase. Would mean another 1900 tomorrow, etc.

Do you think we have not yet reached the point where the UK infection spread could self-sustain, if air travel bans prevent the virus being 'imported' from outside? I imagine it depends if there are pockets of infection anywhere within the general population; presumably such a pocket needs to...

I also wonder just how achievable self isolation will be in practice, even for the most diligent. Suppose a single Mum with two young children. There will be no practice runs, you have to get it right first time. I find it very hard to believe that in that situation there won't be some reason...

At the moment most of the infection spread seems to be coming from people entering from outside the UK. I imagine a critical point is when the infection spread is mostly from others within the UK; akin to a fire no longer relying on kindling to keep it going, but becoming self-sustaining. At...

I was trying to get a feel for the likelihood of the virus being spread by those who no one yet knows are contagious.

But that could simply mean people are most likely to pass the bug on when they are coughing and sneezing all over the place. Is someone happens to cough or sneeze (as people do anyway) during the incubation phase, I wonder if that cough/sneeze sends out just as virulent a dose of virus as later...