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I can’t make sense of this @Jonathan Edwards What is Robert Peston talking about? Apparently this is why they changed strategy. I saw something similar on C4 news but don’t really understand what they’re saying. So they modelled it wrong? Have they changed their herd immunity strategy...

Haha yes. It was 7 days for everyone just a few days ago. Now it’s 14 for families though. Not for individuals (7 days). There’s still a lot of unanswered questions in terms of strategy. If anyone is interested, this is a very good thread by Anthony Costello, (Ex WHO and currently at UCL)...

Oh.. so potentially a very long time then? If you are having symptoms. But if you are not symptomatic. But have been in contact with someone with symptoms. How long does the WHO say to self isolate for? Or do they not say to self isolate - they just say to test?

Just to say, I hope people in the UK would follow the WHO advice and self isolate for at least 14 days from start of symptoms. And everyone else around them. Since we can’t get tested, to see if anyone of us has it or people in contact with us have it, then we have to assume we do have it and...

The problem is none of the suggestions re pubs clubs etc are concrete or supported by govt intervention (like I said above). I hope people do take his advice and decide to act on it seriously though. And hopefully remote working will be rolled out properly. Did he say remote working “especially”...

Unfortunately no one in the UK with “mild” cases is being cared for at home. They are told to just be at home. They may very well pass it onto family members too. But there’s no actual care. Yes I do not understand why it is 7 days for individuals in the Uk. Seriously what is that based on?

It’s going to continue on that path for a while. Measures announced today (voluntary social distancing is the main one, but nothing being officially closed and no govt intervention), no concrete words on community testing or NHS testing, no concrete plans on how to stop elderly and vulnerable...

I would have thought that the tapering over time, is because the social distancing, lockdown measures are working.

WHO: It’s as if he is speaking directly to the UK. I don’t think the UK can carry on the same track anymore. Test every suspected case. Test test test. Trace. Contain. Even mild cases should be looked after so they don’t infect others. Break chain of transmission. Don’t let it affect poorer...

@timcolbourn Prof epidemiology UCL @KatolaZ complex systems @richardjcoker LSHTM @devisridhar Chair global health Edinburgh @globalhlthtwit Anthony Costello Ex WHO, UCL @NAChristakis Prof natural sciences Yale

I created a twitter account to follow this stuff. I follow people relevant to the UK though as well as some international. @BillHanage associate prof Harvard @EmergMedDr doctor in UK @ArisKatzourakis Evolution, genomics @kallikourdis natural sciences immunology Cambridge @bealelab infection lab...

This really is amazing.

Yes - Italy has quite a lot more. In terms of beds and intensive care facilities. And also the UK is short of 50,000 nurses and 10,000 doctors across the NHS. Which is staggering. On the BBC news now, my mum says all she sees is doctors and nurses and head teachers and everyone being upset and...

Oh gosh. I am very, very scared for what’s coming to the UK. looks like a steeper rise and trajectory than every other country, even Italy. Edit: Grant Schapps MP claiming on TV that the UK is following science while all other countries are being populist.

Former director of WHO, last night https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/uk-covid-19-strategy-questions-unanswered-coronavirus-outbreak

Thank you. I had come across that graph before but to me it made very little sense. The green curve (ie the one without a second peak) relies on social distancing. Ie the very thing that the government isn’t doing! Also professor Ian Donald’s tweets. I find that very interesting and actually...

On this topic, I saw this very interesting and illuminating thread. I’m posting it here. It’s by a statistics professor. Essentially it seems the assumptions by the UK govt for example, are caused by the fact that they think Wuhan beat the virus in part due to herd immunity. The assumption of...

@Leila very interesting article. It’s true, countries like the UK can’t afford to just flatten the curve, it’s not enough. Italy is seeing more and more younger people sick. Self treating at home and then some time later get sicker. (How could the UK have thought it’s ok to let the infection...

Do you have any idea Jonathan Edwards on what kind of modelling that the governments advisers may have done? Knowing the capacity of the NHS and how few beds it has, and the % patients who need intensive care, and the exponential growth, it seems obvious to most that it wouldn’t work. And...

Hmm. To me, suspicious timing. In the sense over the past weekend there’s been a bit furore over the herd immunity plan and how 60% of people infected could mean X number of deaths. Then yesterday we get a “leak” to Robert Peston. Then Hancock writes an article in the telegraph. Then an...