Search results

Also, Newsnight, I didn’t watch this part as too tired, but Times Columnist and retweeted by Newsnight editor:

Ok. Just catching up on Newsnight. Tonight on BBC. Re death rates in the UK. “Department of health is changing how it’s compiling and releasing these figures. It turns out these deaths may not be the number of deaths that have taken place over the last 24 hours. The department of health, the...

The UK’s death rate is not doubling as rapidly compared to Italy or (I think) Spain either (see my above posts). Which I was surprised about but there could be many reasons. It was on that trajectory but slowed down over the last 4 days.

Mortality rate is when death has been scaled to size of the population? I read something today; about this, about looking at number of deaths rather than scaling it: Sorry I’m also a bit confused about your statement. Why would looking at mortality rate be better than total no of deaths...

@strategist In terms of people being on overcrowded hospitals, if that is a factor, I think it could be a similar situation in the UK, if not now then in the future. And possibly worse in the UK due to lack of beds, hospitals closed down over past few years etc. And I think here too, people are...

@strategist @Adrian thanks. If I remember correctly, Spain is also following a similar path to Italy? Which is why it is confusing that the UK should diverge. But yes there are possibly quite a few differences between Italy and the UK. Number of people in each house could differ, in London...

Just tracking the number of deaths UK has had due to Coronavirus, compared to Italy. I found this data of deaths in Italy vs UK at different times. Up until 4 days ago, the UK and Italy were very much on a similar track. However over the last few days, that seems to have diverged quite a lot...

Thanks @Jonathan Edwards. What about my second point? Leaving aside NHS staff, who are essential staff. But non-essential, and I mean really non-essential (not what the govt thinks is essential or non-essential!), staff. Many people would get an antibody test and if positive, be told to return...

We may be getting our antibody testing through a high street shop or Amazon very soon, within a few weeks or days even by the sounds of this article: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/25/uk-coronavirus-mass-home-testing-to-be-made-available-within-days “Thousands of 15-minute home...

Wuhan Health Commission have published a Q&A on how they deal with asymptomatic cases. Of course, it’s far, far more thorough and on the opposite end of the scale to how we deal with even our symptomatic cases in the UK. Note: Also very interesting:

Agree people should be isolating and social distancing etc. But also I think it’s simply not good enough, the situation we find ourselves in. It is not just lack of testing but more importantly we need positive tests to do the contact tracing. That is what breaks chains of transmission. In...

The UK's coronavirus policy may sound scientific. It isn't “The modellers use hypotheses/assumptions, which they then feed into models, and use to draw conclusions and make policy recommendations. Critically, they do not produce an error rate. What if these assumptions are wrong? Have they been...

Hmm... And I agree with this:

Jeremy Hunt - a very good speech about all the strategies the govt stopped doing: rigorously testing every case, contact tracing of every case and then isolation of infected contacts. Despite promising to increase testing, tests per day are still at or less than 5,000-8,000 in the UK, which is...

I note a number of journalists from major news outlets have asked to interview Gupta about this, I am concerned and I expect a flurry of news tomorrow about this.

I agree @Adam pwme we need serology testing to know. But I also wish instead of the govt spending so much time on talking about antibody testing for the past two months whenever they’re asked a question about testing, maybe we could actually first start testing people who already are presenting...

Just a follow up to what I said. I don’t know much about modelling so I may be getting the wrong end of the stick. But the modelling seems quite simple to me and also in particular “Our model rests on the assumption that only a very small proportion of the population is at risk of...

@Adam pwme I think this is the model from Oxford which says over 50% of the population of UK are infected. Does anyone want to have a look at it? (Edit: confirmed that yes this is the model). And yes it is all about “herd immunity”. Edit: I’ve just had a quick look over it. It seems to be a...