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It's not as simple as lockdown or no lockdown. For example as mentioned eaier in this thread Singapore has taken a lot of extra steps to reduce numbers. Also Sweden seems to have a laissez-faire approach to the whole thing so I wouldn't pay too much attention to their numbers right now. There...

I hope not. Vaccine could be years away. People have latched on to the idea that it could be 18 months. Well, it could be 10 years too.

This video is interesting if you like watching simulation models and the impact different measures have on the epidemic spread. He simulates various things like 100%compliance with social distancing versus 90% and 50% compliance. Also the effect of isolation with the exception of people going...

I just read that, it's a good example of creating a story based on very little facts and a lot of speculation.

Lipkin talks about wearing masks in that podcast. If you want to jump to the section it's around the 32 minute mark. Basically he says there is a dose response relationship between wearing masks and cases of infection. However it was not a rigouous scientific study more like an observation, but...

Would it possible for countries to eradicate it individually and then only open up borders to similar countries? It might be hard to patrol all borders.

I have always been surprised at this. My interpretation is they told the media something general, which probably related to risk but the media just repeat it with no idea of what they are saying. I would say its entirely based on probability and perhaps related to contact tracing, but I...

Just saw that Farid Zakaria on CNN is interviewing the PM of singapore next Sunday if anyone is interested.

Just to share my recent experience of Singapore. I arrived there early Jan. Before entering the work place, I was asked if I had flown from China or if I had any symptoms of a flu/fever. Everyday I had to fill in the same form. I didn't link this to coronavirus at the time because early Jan...

And today 4790 new cases in Italy. Maybe they are finally turning a corner.

That could well be the case. I didn't check localised numbers, not even sure if this is available. It's hard to remember what happened when but Italy has only been in lockdown since 9th Mar.

I thought they were turning a corner but new cases today were 4207. The previous 4 days were all in or around the 3500 mark. I am not sure what the expected exponential rate is without any measures, but taking the last 5 days new cases are up 20% over 5 days which doesn't seem too bad.

With a positive test people should be in quarantine / isolation, social distancing is what everyone should be doing.

Vallance is getting more pointed questions during todays press conference. He continues to dodge them.

It's still 7 days, Vallance was keen to point out. It's 7 days to account for the first infected member of a household and then 7 subsequent days to account for anyone else picking up the infection during the initial 7 days. So 14 days total for a household with an infected member. So let's...

The new cases in Italy today appear to be more or less the same as yesterday which is a good sign. It might be stabilising but another few days will tell.

That's interesting. The only comment I would say is that the quarantine seems to assume no social distancing. So the quarantine alone isn't as good as social distancing but I wonder when it's combined with social distancing how does it look.

I would have thought the death rate would lag by about a week. Wouldn't a better or more immediate measure be the no. of new cases? Italy had more new cases yesterday than any other day, so from that perspective can it be interpreted how effective the lockdown is yet?

Can viruses recirculate on their own in air or do they need a transport mechanism. Or are there enough particles in the air to transport them.

Would you mind expanding your thoughts on normal economic life ceasing - in what ways? Trying to understand the confidence that most people will live comfortably in such a scenario. Do you think a vaccine would be developed before 4 years?