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Coronavirus: Top government scientist Neil Ferguson resigns from SAGE after breaking lockdown rules

The whole thing is common sense, but somewhere along the way they decided that if there is no scientific evidence for common sense then it just isn't sensible.

That's plausible but I would say this. The first case identified in Italy was in Rome on 31st Jan. By then even a single case in Lombardy that resembled respiratory infection should have rang some alarm bells. It wasn't until 21st Feb that 16 cases in Lombardy were confirmed. I have read...

Leaving aside who said what for a moment, the idea makes no sense at all. By leaving it till later, the lockdown would (I assume) generally need to be longer anyway, thus completing negating the concept of trying to avoid 'lockdown fatigue'.

I find that hard to believe. (that no-one noticed) I would have thought people working in the ski resorts might have had an unusually high incidence. For a while nearly all the new cases around Europe were due to returning skiers.

Tomas Pueyo's latest article talks a lot about contact tracing.

Yes, it's really obvious these journalists have no idea about science, but also journalism. They are used to having a story fed to them so when they are presented with an ongoing situation they have no idea how to read it. They just take whatever is said to them that day and that is the story...

Anyone with any knowledge of the vaccine or pharma sector would tell you it's incredibly unlikely that a new vaccine would be developed in less than 2-3 years. Even if someone has no knowledge of the sector historical data will show timeliness that are in the 5-10+ year range. But now all of a...

I wish I shared your optimism. I see a steady loosening of the restrictions in May and June and then nobody wanting to admit they called it wrong, nor wanting to reintroduce restrictions. So they will continue in denial trying to live with the virus for a few more months until we start all over...

Here is a detailed account of life in China under quarantine, compare it to the UK. "If you open your front door we'll call the police" https://www.rte.ie/amp/1127028/

What about in the meantime. I see an easing of restrictions in May followed by an increase in cases in June. There will be all sorts of noise and excuses then. They may be tempted to put their heads in the sand for a while but they should eventually come to their senses. I remain to be...

I am not sure the USA will ever get its act together. Even if New York or wherever has things under control, it will be at the mercy of other states. I think Florida will be a big problem, they were slow to act and my understanding is they think they can control it themselves. It will be next...

Prof Brian Hughes is from that Dept.

Article about this in today's Irish Times. Tuberculosis vaccine ‘potential game-changer’ in Covid-19 fight (via @IrishTimes) https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/tuberculosis-vaccine-potential-game-changer-in-covid-19-fight-1.4220383

It seems UK health secretary Matt Hancock prioritised testing for patients over healthcare workers, saying it could be the difference between treatment to save a patient or not. I was under the impression testing is more for public benefit than anything else. If a patient is sick and suspect...

Are you referring to Germany? 10 days ago 22 Mar they had about 25000 cases, five days ago 51000 cases. As of today they have c. 900 deaths so about 1.75% allowing for a 5 day lag. If the true death rate is 0.66% then the underdetermination is only about 3 fold. i.e 5 days ago they had about...

Figures from UK today look worse than that, total cases approx 30000 and 2350 deaths, about 8% and that's lagging. I assume there are far more cases, but taking a lag of 10 days for deaths, for a 1% death rate that would mean there were 235,000 cases 10 days ago but the official figures on 22...

I don't think they are stupid but the message is very unclear. I am sure plenty of people out there think they are safe if they don't spend 15 minutes within 6ft of someone. Just about every news article I read says something like "generally you need to be within 6ft of someone for 25 minutes to...

Yep, but the person who is going to cough or sneeze has some idea and there is an onus on them to get as far away from anyone nearby and cover up. I think by issuing simple guidelines like 6ft and 15 minutes, some people assume this is a fact. It's really a general guideline but by now people...

I had assumed 6ft was for normal breathing. Anything else stay as far away as possible was my thinking.