Analyses of the economic costs and impacts of chronic illnesses like ME/CFS and Long Covid

Several analyses of the estimated costs and economic impacts of chronic illnesses like ME/CFS and Long Covid have been published. They all show a heavy economic burden, amounting in the trillions in economic losses, that probably make the strongest argument to convince governments and policymakers that solving them is far cheaper than letting them continue to devastate lives.

This thread is dedicated to listing them for convenience.

 

The OECD has published an analysis of the estimated economic impacts of Long Covid. S4ME thread: The impacts of long COVID across OECD countries.

Highlights include:

1. Even excluding the direct costs of health care, long COVID is likely costing OECD countries as much as $864 billion - $1.04 trillion USD per year due to reductions in quality of life and labour force participation
   
2. Even conservative estimates of long COVID prevalence would indicate that long COVID may be reducing the workforce by nearly 3 million workers across OECD countries, amounting to an economic cost of at least $141 billion USD from lost wages alone. Moreover, even among those who were able to return to the labour force, a significant proportion reported needing to reduce the number of hours they worked, compared to before their infection.
3. Long COVID is not the first chronic condition faced by countries, and the care and support for people living with long COVID should draw on lessons learned in developing approaches to care for other chronic conditions and post-viral syndromes, such as myalgic encephalomyelitis (also known as chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS)).

 

The economic burden of myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome in Australia, 2023, Zhao

Highlights:

1. Estimated total annual societal costs of ME/CFS in Australia ranged between $1.38 and $10.09billion, with average annual total costs of $63,400/patient.
   
2. Three-quarters of these costs were due to indirect costs ($46,731).

 

Long COVID: Costs for the German economy and health care and pension system, 2023, Gandjour

Highlights:

1. The analysis estimated a production loss of 3.4 billion euros. The gross value-added loss was calculated to be 5.7 billion euros

 

The NASEM report on Long Covid includes citations for economic impacts of ME/CFS and Long Covid. Some of those estimates are also found in the 2015 NASEM/IOM report Beyond Myalgic Encephalomyelitis.

Highlights:

1. As many as 2.5 million people may be living with ME/ CFS, with direct and indirect costs totaling $17–24 billion per year (IOM, 2015)
   
2. An estimated 16 million people are experiencing long COVID illnesses nationwide (Bach, 2022b), which will cost the country $544 billion each year, totaling $2.7 trillion over the next 5 years (Cutler and Summers, 2020)
   
3. Annual economic burdens of other chronic conditions, such as post-treatment Lyme disease syndrome and ME/CFS are estimated to exceed $1 billion and $2 billion in the United States, respectively (Hook et al., 2022; Jason et al., 2008)

 

David Cutler of Harvard Kennedy School Estimated Long Covid would cost 3.7 Trillion in the United States.

https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/cutler/files/long_covid_update_7-22.pdf

 

The Economic Burden Of Covid In The Uk (2023, Cambridge Econometrics)

 

Maybe those numbers are clear enough so that policy makers will decide it's worth fixing. Obscure numbers haven't done the trick.

 

just as it always has been .

 

World Health Network: With Millions Suffering, Long COVID is Devastating the Economy

 

Impact of COVID-19 on Work Loss in the United States- A Retrospective Database Analysis (2024, Journal of Medical Economics)

 

The review Long COVID science, research and policy, published in Nature Medicine, uses a figure of roughly $1T in annual economic losses, based on a summary of other estimates made by other studies:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-03173-6

Good research is expensive. Bad research is extremely expensive.

 

Thread made at Long COVID science, research and policy (2024, Nature Medicine)

 

The Economist — An incomplete picture: understanding the burden of long Covid (Apr 2024)

Report (PDF)

UK GDP lost $11 billion EDIT: $15.5 billion (thanks @Kiristar)

 

That weird. I have a copy of this that states it's $15.5billion. I wonder which one is the latest version

https://impact.economist.com/perspe...understanding_the_burden_of_long_covid_v8.pdf

I got this link from the references in this paper

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-03173-6#ref-CR54

Edit: currency corrected to us$

Ref 170

 

You're right! I was following a social media link that misquoted and searched for the number. I didn't realise it had multiple countries listed. Yes the UK is $15.5 billion. I'll edit my original post.

 

New interview with David Cutler (I haven't watched).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DIMND6zcNKE